[HPforGrownups] Wizarding numbers

[Robert Shaw]

No: HPFGUIDX 83007

> Mikael wrote:
> 
>> Another question is 10 500 wizards and wizards-to-be for how many
>> muggles? Given the names of known Hogwarts people, I'd say that
>> Hogwarts cover the british isles (UK and Ireland) which has a pop of
>> 64 million people. So, one adult wizard or witch per 8 000 muggles.

manawydan wrote: 
> Your figure is actually one of the lowest I've seen theorised. Some
> of the things that need to be factored in to try to think about the
> size of the WW (and I agree that the British Isles is probably the
> relevant unit here) are 
> 
> - the number of professional quidditch teams
> - the diversity and size of the media 
> - the number of wizards who work for the Ministry 
> 



Note also, you can't assume that the wizard population is in
steady state, especially given their long lives.

A century ago the proportion of muggle-borns may have been
only 5% (because Hogwarts used to be more selective, or it may
have been 50% (because magic genes are being culled out of the
muggle population.)

Wizard birth rates will be no more constant than muggle birth
rates, and the two won't vary in sync either.

Nor is wizarding lifespan likely to be constant.

All this means we can't deduce much from the population of
Hogwarts.

E.g, suppose in 1930 the wizards had a life expectancy
of 120 and a average family size of 9, but by 1980 that
had changed to 160 and 1.2. Then the population of 
Hogwarts would have plummeted over those fifty years,
the fraction of muggle-borns would have increased, and
the total wizarding population would have remained steady,
which is consistent with what we see.

This also means the wizarding population could be almost 
any size we want without producing any contradictions. 
If 30% of England were wizards, the world would be rather
different, but 1-5% could be believable, as could just 5,000.

With their magic wizards may be able to sustain complex
institutions with a much smaller population than muggles need.

-- 
Robert