[HPforGrownups] wizarding numbers

[manawydan]

No: HPFGUIDX 83087

Mikael wrote:

>years.  Rather, I'd say that the wizarding world has had low mortality and
>low fertility for ages, if not forever.

Until I read OoP, I'd have illuminated this by pointing out the relatively
small numbers of wizards in canon who have sisters or brothers. The Weasleys
seemed exceptional in their family size compared to the others. However, one
thing which changed that, at least to a degree, was the Black Family
Tapestry, which does refer to some larger family sizes.

I'd be uncomfortable with the thought that wizard birth rates were less than
the replacement rate, because it would then imply that the only way the WW
population would be able to maintain itself would be by muggle born
additions. But the number of muggle borns is incredibly small, IMO too small
to be able to make up the numbers.

>I note that you snipped my proposal for why the WW has had such low rates.
>Oh well. It seems eminently reasonable that wizards have enjoyed lower
>mortality rates than muggles since the ancient past. Potions for various
>maladies and and protective spells go a long way to fend off accidental,
>natural deaths. With their magical power combined with house-elf or muggle
>labour, wizards shouldn't need to worry about famine or back-breaking
>drudgery in the fields, and thus few deaths to malnourishment, relative to
>the muggles. Given lower mortality rates than muggles, wizarding fertility
>rates *must* have been comparatively low as well, or wizards would quickly
>out-grow the muggles.

Unless you also assume that the wizard:muggle ratio has grown over the
years. (Perhaps the combination of larger muggle population size together
with a growing WW ratio has made the Statute of Secrecy pinch more over the
years, increasing wizard resentment and feeding anti-muggle prejudice. Just
a thought...)

Magic could of course also be a means of ensuring that no unwanted children
are born, which would be a downward pressure on population. However, it also
appears that wizards mature (both physically and socially) at the same rate
as muggles (coming of age at 17) but their adulthood is considerably longer.
This in turn would mean that a witch would have a far longer period of
fertility and could space children out far more easily. This could of course
be an explanation (as others have surmised) for the low number of sisters
and brothers mentioned in the Hogwarts context. What makes the Weasleys
unique in this theory is the fact that they have had their children
relatively close together in time, rather than the actual numbers.

Cheers

Ffred

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