Lockhart/Longbottoms

[Grey Wolf]

No: HPFGUIDX 83090

D.G. wrote:
> Dumbledore and the other members of the original OoP could not have 
> known whether Voldemort was going to choose Harry or Neville. 

>From Dumbledore's words it seems, indeed, that he wasn't sure which of 
the two expecting members of the Order was the one refered to in the 
prophecy. I myself believe that several members "knew" (that is, where 
"sure" that is was going to be one or the other). But yes, the doubt 
was there.

> This means that the Longbottoms were in grave danger as well: they 
> were aurors, members of OoP, and their son fit the description of the 
> prophecy. So it seems probable that the Longbottoms must have been in 
> hiding also.

Agreed. I believe they were also protected by a Fidelius Charm, and 
that their secret keeper was probably Dumbledore, which might have been 
the reason why Voldemort went for Harry first - but more about that in 
a second. I think it was Dumbledore because there must have been a good 
reason for not choosing Dumbledore as secret keeper for the Potters, 
and not wanting to put all the eggs in one basket (particularly such an 
obvious, if well defended, basket) might be one such reason.

> Dumbledore said that Voldemort chose Harry, but I'm not so sure.  I
> think that he simply got to Harry first via Wormtail, and would have
> gone after Neville as well had the curse not backfired.  

I believe the same thing. Voldemort is not stupid. If there is a 
prophecy about a boy that will kill you, and you doubt between two, you 
kill both, just in case. In fact, if there are several hundred, you do 
a Herod and kill them all just in case.

> So my question are: 
> -Did Voldemort really choose Harry specifically,or was he ultimately 
> after both boys, got to Harry first, and the prophrcy just got 
> carried out from there?

IMO, yes. There is some evidence, in fact: there is a line in the 
prophecy that identifies the correct child but that happens after birth 
and in fact involves Voldemort: the line about Voldemort marking him as 
equal. Now, we could discuss until our bodies were cold and buried 
about what would've happened if Voldemort had gone for Neville first 
(two options that I can think of: Neville is not the one, and dies, or 
both Harry and Neville could have been, and if targeted first Neville 
would've been the one with the scar), but really there is little way of 
really knowing.

I must mention that there seems to be several members that believe that 
Neville *is* the one and that Harry is just hogging the fame, but I 
don't believe that - Harry fits the prophecy, having been marked as 
equal (parseltongue, great magical ability, etc) and so like any good 
self-fulfilling prophecy Voldemort created his nemesis when trying to 
eliminate it before it got started.

> -Were the Longbottoms tortured simply because they
> were aurors, or because of their connection to the prophecy as well?

Voldemort doesn't strike me as the sort to give out information just 
because - but then, I'm an MDDT and thus believe that the Voldemort War 
in an information war were need to know basis is one of the main rules. 
That said, Bellatrix seems quite far up in the power structure so she 
might have been briefed about the prophecy. 

It is probably a combination of both things, though: Bellatrix and co. 
needed to find out so they targeted as far up as they could find: 
someone they could take but that could know the information. This 
discounts Dumbledore (who almost certainly knew but was unasailable) 
and probably most of the people outside the Order (since they would not 
know), so the Longbottom would have been chosen for being important yet 
vincible.

> -We were told that they were tortured for information as to the 
> whereabouts of Lord Voldemort after the curse rebounded.  Did the
> Longbottoms even know that information and why would the LeStranges
> think they knew that information?

IMO, they never knew. Main reason? They didn't *need* to know, and what 
you don't know you can't spill. Dumbledore probably keeps information 
from his people for this very reason - it reduces their danger. Who 
would need to know? Basically Dumbledore's on-site spies (i.e. those in 
Albania) and, of course, Dumbledore himself. On the other hand, 
Dumbledore openly reveals this information in CoS so maybe it wasn't 
such a secret anymore.

Which brings me to the next hypothesis: the Longbottoms didn't know 
because no-one knew - Dumbledore's spies were still looking for him 
when the Longbottoms were attacked. Finally, of course, maybe the 
Longbottoms *did* know and they managed to resist torture, even if it 
costed them their minds - this gives birth to an off-shoot theory: 
maybe Dumbledore started using need-to-know basis *after* seeing what 
knowing info they didn't need do to the Longbottoms. (There is one last 
hypothesis: they knew *and* spilled the beans, but I don't believe they 
did, so I'll let this one for some other enterprising listee).

Why did the Lestranges attack them, then? Well, I touched that before: 
the Lestranges believed as Dumbledore did that Voldemort was still 
alive, and once their own resources to find their master were used up, 
they turned to the most probable faction to have some information (not 
the MoM, too into self-congratulatory celebration to even think about 
Voldemort's survival), their real nemesis: the Order of the Phoenix. Of 
course, by then the Order was pretty reduced (half their number being 
dead), and they knew that information wouldn't given out lightly, so 
they targeted, as I said above, as high up as they dared. Which meant 
the Longbottoms, heroes of the war after surviving three times the 
assault of Lord Voldemort himself.

> -Were they actually being tortured for information about the prophecy
> and that is why they are being kept alive but incapacitated (possibly
> through the influence of Lucius Malfoy)?

I doubt it - but then I don't think they're being purposedly 
incapacitated by anyone. Mental illnesses are the most difficult ones 
to cure, and if their presence was such an inconvenience (and I don't 
understand how it could be, since the culprits of their state were 
captured and imprisoned, so if the Longbottoms recovered their minds it 
is not as if they could point fingers to new people) they could simply 
be killed (security in the hospital being non-existant as we saw).

About the topics that the Lestranges discussed with them, we cannot, of 
course, trust Bellatrix or Voldemort's word on it, so they might have 
discussed the weather for all I know, but it is of course possible that 
the matter of the prophecy popped up at some point or another. That 
said, I think that by that time, the Lestranges were more interested in 
finding their leader (and father figure, and probably lover) than in 
working out how he was beaten in the first place (denial being a 
typical result when one's God-figure suddenly proves to be a mere 
mortal)

> Any thoughts?
> -D.G.

Many, I'm afraid, but that's probably because I've been away for some 
time now.

Hope that helps,

Grey Wolf