Wizarding numbers

[Mikael Raaterova]

No: HPFGUIDX 83140

Ffred wrote:

>I'd be uncomfortable with the thought that wizard birth rates were less than
>the replacement rate, because it would then imply that the only way the WW
>population would be able to maintain itself would be by muggle born
>additions. But the number of muggle borns is incredibly small, IMO too small
>to be able to make up the numbers.

There is a possible indication in canon for wizarding birth rates being 
below replacement levels. Ron states in PS that if wizards hadn't married 
muggles, they'd have died out. My impression from Ron's discussions with 
Hermione and other people is that Ron is shaky on facts. While I can't rule 
out Ron's statement, I find it unlikely to be true. If birth rates were 
below replacement levels, pure-bloods would have died out long ago, since 
they don't marry half-bloods or muggle-borns regardless of how many they 
are. One could argue that the pure-blood ideal is fairly recent and that 
pure-blood families thus haven't had time to die out, but Salazar's 
pure-blood mania indicates the ideal is old. Given that pure-blood wizards 
and witches can at least replace their numbers, we have to assume that 
wizarding birth rates are at or above replacement levels.

Ffred wrote, in reply to me:

> >Given lower mortality rates than muggles, wizarding fertility
> >rates *must* have been comparatively low as well, or wizards would quickly
> >out-grow the muggles.
>
>Unless you also assume that the wizard:muggle ratio has grown over the
>years.

I don't see that, especially if you look at pre-modern times. In a reply to 
Robert Shaw, I pointed out that if the WW enjoyed low mortality and high 
fertility (fast growth) for any sustained period of time, while muggles 
simultaneously suffered high mortality and high fertility (slow growth), 
which has been the case until modern times, then wizards would become more 
numerous than muggles in perhaps as little as 500 years, depending on 
starting populations and growth rates.


/ Mikael