Wizarding numbers: 24,000 ... give or take a few

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 83350

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, Mikael Raaterova
<mikael.raaterova at b...> wrote:
> To summarize my findings below:
> 
> - About 30 percent of Hogwarts students are muggle-borns
> - No more than half of the 11-17 years old wizard-borns in the 
> British isles attend Hogwarts
> - The wizarding population is about 24 000 (bounded at 20-30 000)
> 
> ...edited...
>
> Feel free to poke holes in my reasoning. I'm not entirely convinced
> that my attempt holds up to scrutiny, but i don't think i made any 
> glaring errors.
> 
>  ...edited...
> 
> Whew. If you managed to wade through this delusional demographic
> debate to the bitter end, you have my deepest respect.
> 
> / Mikael

bboy_mn:

First a question, why no more that HALF the wizard-borns enrolled in
Hogwarts? I would think that more like 90% to 99.999% of young UK
wizards would go to Hogwarts. Perhaps, I misinterpreted what you said.

Next, as a general point, let's remember that the bulk of the wizard
world is mixed blood. Mikael estimates about 30% muggle born, and 7.5%
historically pureblood, leaving 62.5% mixed blood. That may not be
precise, but it seem pretty close to me. 


To the point-

Well, I don't debate your excellent demographic analysis, and I did
manage to make it through to the end, although I confess that my head
was befuddled and spinning. 

However, I should warn you that many people have spent many countless
hours trying to determine the Hogwarts and the Wizard World
population. They have used assumptions about the Hogwart population to
extrapolate the wizard world population, conversely, they have used
assumptions about the size of the wizard world to determine the
Hogwarts population, and ever combination in between. 

Also, people have taken they real life experience and tried to
transfer that to the wizard world and Hogwarts. Example; my town has
'X' number of people, and it has 'Y' number of kids in high school,
therefore, Hogwarts, and by extension, the wizard world must be 'this'
big.

And for every detailed analysis, a dozen people jump in to point out
the flaws and/or why they disagree. The only consistant conclusion we
have reached is that it's impossible to reach any even remotely
accurate or consistent conclusion. Most likely because the numbers
simply don't add up.

Let's take a very simple model. Based on the CIA Worldbook of Facts...
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html
...approximately 9.25% of the UK population is included in the age
span of 11 through 18 (7 year span). JKR has said that Hogwarts has
1,000 students. Expanding the numbers tells us that the wizard world
population is about 10,800 people.

Do I beleive that? NO. I don't believe it because reading the book
gives me the very distinct impression that the wizard world is much
large than that. The number and range of businesses, (Import/export,
retail stores, manufacturing of finished goods, manufacturers of basic
manufacturing materials, processing of raw material, acquisition of
raw materials, warehousing, distribution, and transportation of goods,
the service industry, multi-national businesses like Gladrags) and the
size of government and infrastructure aren't consistant with a
population that small.

Remember for every business you see, there are probably 10 or more
businesses backing it up. Take Fortesque's Ice Cream; spoons, forks,
plates, cups, bowls, counters/cabinets/cupboards, cold storage, window
glass, carpenters, stone masons, metal workers, foundaries,
lumberjacks, furniture, paint, sign makers, tables, chairs, farmers,
dairies, fruit growers & distributors, etc....

Based on my reading overview of the wizard world, I estimate a
population in the 5 figures (+50,000) to the very low 6 figures
(125,000). Can I back that up with data? No, only with my impression.
But the impression we are left with from reading the story MUST be JKR
truest measure of the world she intented to create for us.

If we assume some validity to that belief, then we are left with the
task of explaining the inconsistancies we see rather than trying to
resolve the numbers. Example: a population of the size of my
impression seems far too big for the only school to have only 1,000
student, and as far as 1,000 student, based on what we see, that is
unlikely to be an exact head count and more likely to be a
generalization about the relative size of the school. Meaning that
while 1,000 may represent the general size of the school over the
course of it's history, it is probably not an accurate reflection of
the current enrollment, which we assume is down.

So how do I explain the inconsistency? JKR has said, slightly
paraphrased, that Hogwarts is the only college of witchcraft and
wizardy in the UK, but that doesn't rule out other lower schools of
magic. That's one of my many theoies. Hogwarts is a college level
school and the only 7 year school of witchcraft and wizard. (Remember
in the UK, 6th and 7th years are the equivalent of 2 years of junior
college in the USA.) So I propose that there are other 3 and 5 year
schools of magic. These are more like modern techincal and trade
schools. Others speculate that there are craftsman guilds and similar
organization that have apprentice/journeyman programs that teach
wizards highly specialized trades.

Can I prove any of that? No, but both the magic schools and craftsman
guilds are reasonable and historically accurate models that can be
used to explain the discrepancy between the large size of the wizard
world population and the small size of the Hogwarts school population. 

First and foremost, I think we must accept that no analysis will ever
add up; the populations are inconsistant. However, knowing that
certainly shouldn't spoil the fun of trying to find a reasonable
solution to the inconsistancies. 

As I pointed out, my own personal method is to take my impression of
the number of students and wizards, and try to come up with (sometime
fanciful) explainations for those impressions.

Another approach might be to ask, how many people, or perhaps, how few
people does it take to sustain an ethnically identifiable population?

Again from the CIA Worldbook of Fact are some examples of small
contained populations-

Note: population distribution
Y= age 0 to 14 (Youth)
A= age 15 to 64 (Adult)
S= age 65 and over (Senior)

British Virgin Islands ... pop=21,730 (Y=22%, A=73%, S=5%)
Cayman Islands ... pop=41,932 (Y=22%, A=71%, S=8%) 
Island of Samoa ... pop=70,260 (Y=38%, A=57%, S=5.4%)
Island of Aruba ... pop=70,844 (Y=21%, A=68%, S=11%)
Principality of Liechtenstein ... 33,145 (Y=18%, A=71%, S=11%)
 ...between Switzerland and Austria
Andorra ... 69,150 (Y=15%, A=72%, S=13.2%)
 ...between Spain and France

So, while I choose to see a population near 100,000; the facts above
would seem to support the possibilities of much smaller populations
sustaining themselves with government, commerce, industry, and a
unique identity.

Just a few thoughts.

bboy_mn