Wizarding population indeterminable (WAS Re: wizarding numbers)

[Mikael Raaterova]

No: HPFGUIDX 83627

Ffred said, in reply to me:

> >Interestingly enough, the fraction of muggle-borns would put a cap on
> >maximum theoretical attendance. We know that 25 % of the wizarding
> >population is muggle-born. But how big a fraction of Hogwarts students is
> >muggle-born? Erring on the side of caution, I'd say it's maximally 31%,
> >probably less.
>
>I think this statement ought to be the other way round - JKR's comment was
>that 25% of the Hogwarts population were muggle born.

That's what I get for trusting second-hand sources...

Seriously, that makes my analysis pointless. If it had been 25 percent of 
the wizarding population, it would have been possible to calculate the 
wizarding population by knowing (a) the number of muggle-borns at Hogwarts 
(assuming that all muggle-born 11-to-17-year-olds attend Hogwarts) and (b) 
the fraction of muggle-born wizards that are 11 to 17 years old. Now, that 
route is blocked.

Left only with the number of students at Hogwarts and the variability of 
the factors relevant to calculating the population, I resign myself to 
conclusion that the wizarding population can be anything between 10 000 and 
200 000...


/ Mikael