Prediction/Verisimilitude Was: Correct forecasts (long)

[Jim Ferer]

No: HPFGUIDX 80290

Sandy:" I think the "what would *you* do" test (emphasis added) was
useful  for the Muggle parents' behavior because the "you" being
inquired of was (I assume) a Muggle. I cannot predict Snape, for
instance, based on what I think I would do in his place; for fanfic
*or* prediction, I would have to "put on" his character and operate it
like a hand puppet, causing it to speak and behave based on what I
(think I) know of him."

Good point, and I should have said it more broadly.  In many cases you
have to look for other parallels than your own experience, from people
you've known, met, or read about, or even look into the parts of
yourself hidden in the background.  

Take Snape. It wasn't until OOP that I felt I had the handle on him. 
He was an isolated, socially phobic, picked on kid.  He started out
filled with negative energy over his home life and filled himself with
rage over his treatment at Hogwarts.  Every couple holding hands is a
taunt aimed directly at him, every set of friends is an affront, and
every visible manifestation of love in any form is a knife in the
heart to a guy whose heart was starved until it died.  Cruise on over
to alt.support.loneliness or alt.support.shyness and you'll get an
eyeful of more rage than you can imagine. Snape probably posts there.

Sandy:" Very likely JKR used the same historical model you did; so did
you predict, or did you parallel? <g--kidding!"

Interesting hair to split. <g> To catch a fish, though, you have to
think like the fish, or to win a battle, think like your opponent.

Sandy:" What anyone who posts a prediction here is doing is virtual 
continuation of the story; a hint of fanfic in our heads. Can we 
imagine the story playing out thus?"

There's other kinds. The little pieces I wrote were intended to be as
believable as I could make them, imagining events that could happen or
explaining things as "accurately" as possible.  Other kinds of fics do
something very different, imagining Harry/Hermione/Ron/Ginny/Draco as
very different people than the ones walking around in canon; in other
words, an alternative universe to JKR's alternative universe.  Some
are so far out it's like some doppelganger took over the characters'
bodies.

It sounds like I have definite opinions about the quality of some of
the predictions and theories I see on this list, and I do.  In the
interest of list harmony, I'll keep them to myself.  The speculation I
*don't* mind is the one that says, "I know I can' back his up, but
wouldn't it be cool if..." We all know we're just having fun then.

Sandy:" Some of the theories like Evil!Dumbledore make me a little
crazy; JKR spent considerable time and effort grooming our suspension
of disbelief; I don't see her (or any writer who wants people to pick
up their next book) blowing that up quite so spectacularly, because
what it says is: Hey, you trusted me, and I made you look like an idiot 
(picked your pocket), isn't that funny? Yes, I see her as playing 
fair (and that goes back to *my* expectations and assumptions). She 
has so far."

This theory in particular actually offends me, makes me angry and a
little sad.  We've been conditioned by stupid movies and clichéd plot
devices to expect the Ultimate Betrayal, where your best friend in the
Army turns out to be the guy helping the drug dealers. Bah.  If JKR
did that, it would be the worst betrayal of young readers ever, and I
could never forgive her for it, because the message to young readers
would be

1.	The world is no damn good.
2.	Love, friendship, and loyalty aren't real.  Nobody else matters,
because they'll betray you sooner or later anyway.
3.	Don't trust anyone.

I don't believe for a minute JKR's doing it. She's been the opposite
of all those loathsome qualities.

Jim Ferer