Firenze, Trelawney and predictions

[Christy]

No: HPFGUIDX 81045

Remnant pointed out:
 
> But if we look closer, Trelawney *saw* a genuine sign. She just 
> misinterpreted it. She thought the dog sign was a Grim. It was 
> actually Sirius.

My (Christy's) comment:
Good point.

Remnant also points out:
> Also note a couple of the other predictions Trelawney made that first 
> day that also came true. Neville dropped a teacup. Parvati got
> dreaded news on the 16th. Looks like Divination is for real in the
> Potterverse (Firenze thinks so), but the interpretation is quite a 
> fallible art.

And here, (Christy again):
OK, well I'm not so sure that Neville dropping the teacup could be a
prediction. She may have simply honed in on Neville's clumsiness, and
as soon as she said something (which I believe Hermione points out)
Neville got nervous. That may have been a self-fulfilling kind of
prophesy (meaning had she not said anything, Neville wouldn't have
dropped the cup). I also agree with Hermione's point on Parvarti's
dreaded news. Had Trewlaney said horrible news then I could agree. But
Hermione's right. Parvarti wasn't dreading her rabbit dying. Why would
she if it was just a baby?

And Remnant finished with: 
> So whether the future can be changed may be a moot point: if the 
> interpretation of the signs is imperfect, then the future is never 
> predicted with reliability. So at the end of the series, we'll just 
> look back at the prophecy and say, "oh, that's what it meant!"

Finally (Christy one more time!):
Well, I have to admit, I'd say that regardless, cause I'm not real
good at figuring out what will happen in books. But even Firenze says
that the Centaurs can be wrong and this is the point that confuses me.
If the Centaurs put so much time and effort into learning how to
predict the future, I would tend to think that they would get it
right... but Firenze implies that they don't. I'm not so sure it's
just Centaurs being falliable. Maybe I'm wrong though. Thanks for the
points... more to think on!

Christy