Book 6 (& 7!) Predictions

[Jim Ferer]

No: HPFGUIDX 95962

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "JoAnna" <pt4ever at y...> wrote:
>  
> > >Mo: Hehe. Good one! I never thought about the MoM position... But 
> it would be kind of sweet revenge if Arthur Weasly got to be MoM.
> >  
> > Laura: I got the Arthur Weasley as MoM prediction from a post here 
> ages ago, but I can't find it! It was really good, and mentioned 
> something Ron said in a previous book, along the lines of ' if that 
> happens dad will be the next Minister of Magic!' sarcastically 
> (sorry, no canon references on me!). Who posted that?!
> 
> I think the quote you're referring to is the following from OotP (I 
> don't have my book available so I can't quote chapter or page, 
> sorry): "We have about as good of chance to win the Quidditch Cup 
> than dad does of becoming Minister of Magic."
> 
> I think this theory is plausible, but on the other hand I have to 
> wonder if Arthur has the experience necessary to BE MoM.  After all, 
> he's been the Head of the Misuse of Muggle Artifacts office for 
> umpteen years; he doesn't seem to have a lot of experience running 
> an entire Ministry!  Plus, he's not even a member of the 
> Wizengamot.  My guess would be that Madam Amelia Susan Bones, Head 
> of Magical Law Enforcement and a prominent member of the Wizengamot, 
> will be next (interim) MoM, perhaps with Arthur Weasley being 
> promoted to her old spot and/or primed for taking over as MoM in a 
> few years?

In our world, Arthur couldn't be made MoM.  The truth is you can't
jump someone over that many heads and drop him into a top spot.
There's a lot of reasons:

You have to have some experience in decision making posts to take over
a high-level position like that.

Every apparatchik in the Ministry is going to be gunning for him.

The wizarding public will not be reassured.  They might well percieve
Arthur as merely Dumbledore's puppet.  The leader has to be seen as a
leader.

It's hard to know who will be MoM, as long as it isn't Fudge. 
Whatever happens, everybody knows that the real seat of power and
center of the wizard world is at Hogwarts, in the person of Albus
Dumbledore.

The WW needs a Churchill to take the place of their Chamberlain.