New Minister for Magic

[Arya]

No: HPFGUIDX 96486

> Jim Ferer wrote:
> You are predicting that Lucius will break out of Azkdaban and take 
> over the Ministry in some sort of coup de main? That wouldn't be a 
> coup, it'd be open combat. 
> ------------------------
> Bookworm:
> That's right. Notice that the last chapter of OoP is called "The 
> Second War Begins." I was thinking more of a coup d'etat than coup 
> de main but either term works; the first is usually a political 
> maneuver, the second term used more with military action. Malfoy 
> would have help from the Death Eaters in the Ministry.
> 
> coup d'etat: The sudden overthrow of a government by a usually > 
small  group of persons in or previously in positions of authority.
> coup de main: A sudden action undertaken to surprise an enemy. 
> 
> Jim Ferer wrote:
> I don't think that's likely. Neither Fudge nor Mafoy has any 
> credibility in the wizard world. If Malfoy was to seize the 
> Ministry, government would just move to Hogwarts.
> 
> Bookworm:
> Malfoy is a man of power and influence – men like that will always 
> have credibility with some people, and his philanthropy is good for 
> his image. Fudge's credibility may have dropped some during OoP, 
but 
> he is still the Minister and has the authority of that position. 
> Notice that Fudge's statement only confirms reports that Voldemort 
> is back and the mass revolt of the dementors. *We* know who the 
> reporter means by "a select band of followers (known as Death 
> Eaters)" but Joe Wizard doesn't.---
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Arya:  I'm not so sure I agree on that.  Harry named all those he 
recognized at Volde's rebirthing to Rita and it was published in the 
Quibbler. The Daily Prophet ran the same article.  Draco, his two 
goons and Nott (another whose father, I believe was mentioned) are 
then mentioned hangingout together and glaring at Harry, IIRC.  Plus, 
Lucius held some prominent jop at the MoM.  I don't think he can just 
disappear off to Azkaban without his arrest being quite public and 
Harry's earlier and consistent fingering of him as a Death Eater is 
the nail in his coffin.  Harry's the golden boy in the press and 
world again and Joe Wizard has to either believe Harry or, if Lucius 
ever possibly managed to mount a defense or make some excuse, Lucius 
Malfoy.  I don't think we'll see a Lucius Malfoy who is free to roam 
about and who isn't wanted as an escapee.  His money might be used to 
influence a new Minister and perhaps he may reappear in Polyjuice, 
but his dyas of leisure duplicity are over, IMO.
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> We are seeing the WW through Harry's eyes. To the average wizard, 
> Fudge is the Minister, Harry is only known through legend, and 
> Dumbledore is respected, but is just the Headmaster of the school. 
> I think it unlikely that even those who went to Hogwarts would know 
> much about him personally. 
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Arya: I think you underestimate Dumbledore.  He was  popular enough 
for there to be a public call for him to be Minister before Fudge, 
he's arguable the most popular Chocolate Frog card, he's the Chief 
Warlock on the UK Wizengamot and the UK representative to the 
International Wizards' Council.  He's a major mover and shaker 
politically.  Fudge just got him discredited temoporarily.  
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> Harry has a unique relationship with him.
> Dumbledore works behind the scenes. I doubt he would challenge 
> Malfoy directly, but he would lead the Resistance. The official 
> government would still be the Ministry – whoever has control. 
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In reality, the government is the body who effects rule and commands 
authority.  The only way Lucius or any known DE would take office and 
weild rule is through martial law and, though possible, I don't think 
it's entirely likely.  From the standpoint of the books, I think they 
can't focus too much on a major war of and in the Ministry--Harry's 
got to get to school.  I don't time or opportunity in the books to 
make a major thing of the MoM being the rule of Death Eaters without 
that causing the shift in the people-supported Leader (Dumbledore) 
leading from Hogwarts.  
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~Arya