New Minister for Magic

[scoutmom21113]

No: HPFGUIDX 96630

> He does not have official authority as a member of the ministry.

Arya: 
This is only true if you assume he has not been reappointed to the 
Wizengamot which is *the* judicial authrity of the Ministry. I do 
think the Wzgmt has a substantial amount of influence on new 
Ministers (just my feel) and no one--most especially Lucius Slick 
Malfoy can get his name cleared without the Wizengamot clearing it. 

Bookworm:
You caught me on that detail – the Wizengamot is part of the 
Ministry and he was reinstated. They would have influence on a new 
Minister *they elected*, but not on someone taking over in other-
than-normal ways. How much influence do you think the Supreme Court 
would have if someone took over the US government illegally – in 
circumstances like the ones we are discussing? (No comments about 
the last election, please!) And that has only nine members. The 
Wizengamot has many more members, and seems more like a town meeting 
than a legislative or judicial body. But following the analogy of 
the Supreme Court, Chief Justice Rehnquist probably has a lot of 
influence in political circles, and has name recognition in the 
public. But how many average citizens could tell you how he stands 
on certain issues or who the people are he influences the most. Like 
Dumbledore, he is out of the public eye.

Arya: 
Plus, Dumbledore is not just "powerful" but "the greatest wizard of 
modern times". He laughed in the face of what I have to assume is 
one of the most powerful Aurors Fudge had at his disposal to bring 
with him to Hogwarts in OotP. Dumbledore didn't break a sweat 
battling Volde. I would argue he is enough for half the country to 
hide behind if they manage to say move to Hogsmeade and the area 
near Hogwarts.

Bookworm:
Agreed, but.... There is a difference between strength and power. I 
think in this sense we are talking about strength. For all of the 
people looking to him for rescue, he didn't save them in VW1, and we 
know from the prophecy that he won't be the one to save them this 
time. What good will his strength do? And how do you define great? 
(Remember that Ollivander told Harry that Voldemort had done "great 
things – terrible but great.")

Arya: 
Plus, I'd even wager a fair number of galleons that there are 
numerous folks in the MoM right now that would quietly support the 
Pureblood cause and funnel info out to door to ensure their own 
safety.

Bookworm:
Do you mean the insiders who could be pressured into supporting a 
coup? ;-)

Arya: 
I do not think Volde has motive, incentive nor advantage enough to 
go after Hogwarts.

Bookworm:
Maybe I mis-spoke. Hogwarts has value to Voldemort because that is 
Dumbledore's base. As long as those loyal Dumbledore to are there, 
LV will *have* to attack there eventually to defeat Dumbledore and 
Harry.  
 
Jim Ferer:
There's another thing about attacking the Ministry with a view to 
taking it over: I don't think it's a valuable target anymore. 
Hogwarts is the center of resistance to Voldemort, and everybody 
knows it; and no one will recognize any kind of claim to the 
authority of government from the DE's. The one major advantage to 
possessing the Ministry would be the value of the secrets it 
contains.

Bookworm: 
You sound like you would be familiar with strategic and operational 
centers of gravity. The Ministry would, IMO, be a strategic center 
based on the symbolism: "Whoever holds the capitol...." Hogwarts 
would be the operational center.

Jim Ferer:
What will Dumbledore's strategy be? Continuous harassment and 
disruption of the DE's. Don't give them any peace, any rest, any 
chance to gather strength and plan new attacks; keep them running. 
Capture DE's whenever you can. Take advantage of your secure base 
and try to deny the DE's any chance to develop one. 

Bookworm: 
This sounds like what the Ministry should be doing, but doesn't 
sound like Dumbledore's style. I see him doing more of the 
intelligence work – who and where are the DE's, where is LV, how can 
we get to him – and passing the information on. The day-to-day work 
I would think would be done by the Aurors in the Ministry. 

Jim Ferer:
Above all, protect and nurture Harry, his friends, the student body, 
and Hogwarts. They are the future, and the wizard families will 
accept danger for
themselves if they believe their children are in the safest place 
possible.

Bookworm: 
Definitely.

Jim Ferer:
P.S. You could write a pretty good article for /Military History
Quarterly/ out of this discussion.

Bookworm: 
Can't you see the wargame planning for this? <Will someone find 
Ottery St. Catchpole on the map - now? How do we defend a castle we 
can't *** see!?> Depending, of course, on which general is in charge 
and whether or not s/he has even heard of Harry Potter. <bg>