Four More Ways to Predict

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 96725

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Jim Ferer" <jferer at y...> wrote:
> We love making predictions about what's to come in the (sadly)
> shrinking future of the HP series.  I do.  (We) comb canon
> looking for clues ..., and that's one of the ways to do it, but I 
> think there's  others that don't get used as often that can lead to 
> interesting predicitions:
> 
> WHAT WOULD HARRY DO?
> 
> Not just Harry, anybody we're considering.  Getting under the
> characters' skins and knowing how they've approached things in the
> past can be important clues to the future.  ...
> 
> HARRY AS HISTORY
> 
> This can be fun, finding parallels in human history and applying 
> them. ...
>   
> 
> IF THIS WAS MY PROBLEM, HOW WOULD I SOLVE IT?
> 
> There's a lot of things in the wizard world we know absolutely 
> nothing about. My example here is that about three years ago I 
> started to wonder "What would I do if one of *my* kids got a 
> Hogwarts letter?"  ...
> 
> PARALLEL LITERATURE
> 
> Neither JKR nor wizardry exist in a vacuum.  We can offer up 
> parallels in the literature of magic and see if they fill holes in 
> the Potterverse.  ...
> 
> My point here is that it would be fun to expand the prediction
> toolbox.  It's really analysis, not just prediction.  Finding bits
> of canon text, which can be ambiguous and not much to go on, isn't 
> always the best way to go.
> 
> Jim Ferer


bboy_mn:

I will add one more idea, although it applies more to speculation than
prediction. You did touch on it, but I would like to expand on it as a
separate entity. I call it, 'Logical Expansion of the World'.

All my favorite discussion in this group are based on logical
expansions of the wizard world. Taking what we see on the page and
expanding that through logical and reasonable assumption in order to
flesh out the world that is not shown on the page.

Example, we see Gringott on the page, but if we are to understand and
speculate and predict how Gringotts might come into play in the story,
we must expand our limited view into a hopefully logical extension of
that. Do Gringotts account pay interest? Even though the Goblins are
in control of the wizard world's money, do they feel any need to
cooperate with the wizard world government? Does Gringotts make loan?
Are they involved in investing? ...and many many more questions. 

Logically assembling the answers to these question expands the world
to the point were we an make more educated guess about the Goblin's
likely actions.

One of the best and most heated discussion I've had in this group
revolved around the nature of the business in the wizard world
(although that particular discussion happened eons ago). It was 
stimulated by our trying to estimate the size of wizard world and
Hogwarts. Take an estimate of the size of Hogwart and use it to
extrapolate the size of the wizard world. Alternately, take the size
of the wizard world and extrapolate the size of Hogwarts. 

That lead to a discussion of the size of the wizard world using it's
apparent size as a reference point to determine it's likely size. (Did
that make sense?) That in turn lead to an analysis of business in the
wizard world.

In the wizard world, there is a morning, evening, and Sunday edition
of the daily paper, there is Witch's Weekly magazine, Transfigurations
Today magazine, as well as many other businesses that imply a large
wizard world population.

In my attempt to validate my belief in a large wizard world, I made
the point that behind every obvious and cannon stated business, are
many many support businesses that are obviously there but all 'off page'.

Example, Fortescue's Ice Cream Shop; it doesn't seem that complicated.
Milk, eggs, cream, flavor, and refrigeration, that doesn't seem to
demand a very big wizard world. But what about farmers, fruit
(strawberries, raspberries, bananas, etc), toppings (nuts, chocolate,
flavored syrups, candy, etc), scoops, spoons, forks, counters, 
cabinets, cupboards, buildings, lumber, nails, glue, paint, mortar,
floor tile, chairs, tables, window glass, bowls, plates, drinking
glasses, cookware, importers and exporters, warehouses, transportation
and distribution, refining and processing, etc.... 

Then select any one of the second level items listed here, and think
of all the businesses it takes to support that business. Someone has
to mine, refine, and forge the metal to make the spoons. Someone has
to grow, transport, refine, and process the cocoa into chocolate.

I love this type of discussion. It's things like this that keep me
awake late into the night. ...Logical Expansion of the World.

Just a thought.

bboy_mn