Sirius' escape timeline

[Bex]

No: HPFGUIDX 109215

Kneasy wrote:
> > "Fudge, who just happened to be at Azkaban the night before 
Sirius escapes,
> > (pure coincidence of course - and if you believe that you might 
want to buy
> > this 100% genuine gold brick) has loosed the Dementors."
> > 
DuffyPoo answered:
> > Hmm...my book doesn't say anywhere that Fudge was at Azkaban 'the 
night before' 
> Sirius escaped.  
> 
Kneasy replied:
> Oh yes it does.
> Arthur says so in chap. 4.
> "...because Fudge wanted to keep it quiet, but Fudge went out to 
> Azkaban the night Sirius escaped."


Yb's turn: I just posted on this, and now I know why I was confused 
about that remark for the first *4* times I read the book.
Some clarification (what I think happened):

Day 0: Fudge went to Azkaban to tour the facility, make sure 
everything is ship-shape. Sirius asks for the paper, sees the rat, 
recognizes Peter, starts making plans.

Evening/night 0: Sirius is possibly first heard saying "he's at 
Hogwarts." We don't know how long he's been saying this, we just know 
(through Arthur from Fudge) that he was heard talking in his sleep, 
and he wouldn't have any reason to before Fudge's visit. See note 
below on this...

Evening (4-5): I say (4-5) because we don't know how long Sirius was 
babbling in his sleep, or how long he's known about Peter. I vote for 
4-5 days because the Weasley family picture was taken about a week 
before Harry's birthday, and Harry hears about Black on the muggle 
news on his birthday. We give Fudge the allotted 2-3 days to sit on 
this, since a) he doesn't want to admit to the Muggle world that this 
guy is loose, b) he doesn't want to admit to the WW that this guy is 
loose so he gives the dementors a chance to catch him first, or c) he 
needs the time to get a story straight with the PM. Thus Black 
probably escaped 2-3 day before Harry's birthday, which would be 4-5 
days after the Weasley edition of the DP came out. SO... Evening 4-5 
is when Sirius breaks out of Azkaban.

Night 4-5: Fudge comes running to Azkaban (in his jammies and robes, 
I'm sure) and hears *someone* tell him that Black was muttering "he's 
at Hogwarts."

OK, so that's my theory. I'd love to hear thoughts.

Here's one more BIG NOTE though: We only know Sirius was mumbling
"He's at Hogwarts" because that's what Fudge said. We have no proof 
of that beyond Fudge's word, which doesn't hold much water with me, 
personally. Maybe that was part of the grand scheme, that Fudge said 
Black was doing that, so he would look like a madman bent on killing 
again, thus justifying the use of extreme force, and pulling some of 
the focus off of Fudge...

Anyway, comments appreciated

~Yb