Trelawney isn't a fraud

[Mike]

No: HPFGUIDX 111492

I'm sorry if this has been discussed from this viewpoint already, but 
I have never seen it. Also, before you want to look at me with a 
Snape-like disgust, there is quite a bit of proof the shows Professor 
Trelawney to be an actual Seer, though obviously not as great as her 
great-great-great grandmother, Cassandra, or whatever relation she 
was.

This means however, that Harry, Ron, Hermione, McGonagall, Umbridge 
and even Dumbledore are wrong about her. Right now you may be 
thinking that this is a little much to push aside, but I'd appreciate 
it if you hear me out. The fact that these people don't like 
Trelawney, is that well to be blunt: She's annoying and likes to make 
large productions of drama while she talks. (ie: PoA Christmas Feast)

First off a question: Why do we automatically think Trelawney is a 
fraud?

The answer to this is quite simple: Everyone Harry interacts with and 
trusts thinks she is. His opinion is biased due to the fact that he 
doesn't have the Sight. We are reading the story from his POV, thus 
he is taking nearly everything she does into a negative light.

Harry dislikes her because he isn't a Seer, and thus he cannot 
understand and cannot be taught Divination. Because of this, he finds 
it very annoying and frustrating. Ron is also not a Seer (yes yes, 
I've heard arguements on this board saying otherwise, but the point 
is he doesn't know it if he is) so he finds it annoying too. Same for 
Hermione, and the fact that she can't learn it without being a Seer 
frustrates her quite a bit. 

McGonagall dislikes Trelawney because like Hermione, she is not a 
Seer and likes to research things. She's strict. She likes rules and 
facts, not Interpretation and Divination.

Umbridge is determined to sack Dumbledore's teachers all year round. 
Trelawney is seen as an annoying figure. Umbridge would sack nearly 
all of the teachers given the chance, but because Trelawney teaches 
Divination and Umbridge isn't a Seer, she is once again labeled a 
fraud and set on Probation.

Lastly, Dumbledore. I know that a lot of people like to assume he's 
right when he tells Harry things, but in this case he isn't right, or 
he worded his thoughts about Trelawney wrong. He says that Trelawney 
has only made two actual PREDICTIONS that were true. This isn't the 
case. She has made only two PROPHECIES. There is a difference. Though 
it is not firmly stated in canon, there is nothing to suggest that 
for each regular 'prediction' made, she must go into a trance and 
remember nothing after. Let's look at the predictions she makes in 
the first Divination class in Harry's 3rd Year.

Trelawney predicts that Neville will break a teacup in the first 
class. It does happen, and knowing Neville we could say that she 
easily knew he was clumsy. But how did she know he was clumsy? The 
students have probably never even seen her before as she rarely 
leaves her tower (not even for meals!). There is a very slim chance 
that Trelawney would know Neville is clumsy and has a habit of 
breaking things as soon as the first class starts.

Another of Trelawney's predictions in the first Divination class is 
that "the thing Lavender is dreading will happen" and she gives an 
esimated date. Right on schedule, Lavender's bunny dies. This could 
be a complete coincidence yes, but given her other two predictions 
right after each other that come true I find it hard to give this one 
to pure coincidence.

The last prediction is that a student will leave around Easter for 
good. This may not like a hard thing to guess, given that you either 
have the Sight and do well or don't have it and struggle, but she 
gets the date right on again. This is the second time she has 
predicted the correct time frame so I once again find it hard to give 
it to pure luck.

Throughout Harry's third year she constantly tells him about his 
problems with the Grim and how she keeps seeing it while reading his 
tea leaves and the like. She's not seeing the Grim, she's seeing 
Sirius in his Animagus form. She calls it the Grim because that's 
what she knows as she doesn't know anything about Sirius' animagus 
form. Since the Grim means peril, she constantly tells him he is in 
mortal danger. Harry shrugs this off because it's laughable to him 
and Ron- he's always in danger!

So basically, why can't Trelawney predict correctly all the time or 
especially, when Umbridge asks her to? She's told us this many times 
over: The Inner-Eye does not work on command. Why does she constantly 
predict Harry's doom, and love all the miserable predictions Harry 
and Ron make? She's very dramatic, I think we can all agree on that. 

Trelawney is stuck teaching an unteachable subject. You will either 
have the Sight, or you will not (she even says this). From what we 
can understand you will either have the Gift, or you will struggle 
and be un-able to learn it. What she says at the beginning of the 
first lesson is true: Books can only take you so far in this field.

Trelawney teaching Divination would be like Harry trying to teach 
other's to talk to Snakes. You're either a Parselmouth or you aren't. 
If you aren't, it's hard to learn and you're going to have a biased 
opinion of the whole subject.

I definitely think that Trelawney is actually a Seer now, but as 
we've heard many times "The Inner-Eye does not work on command." Add 
in her thirst for drama and the biased opinions we keep getting, it's 
no wonder we always quickly assume she's a fraud.

Mike