Trelawney isn't a fraud

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 111499

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Mike" 
<submarimon15 at y...> wrote:
> 
> Trelawney predicts that Neville will break a teacup in the first 
> class. It does happen, and knowing Neville we could say that 
she easily knew he was clumsy. But how did she know he was 
clumsy? The  students have probably never even seen her 
before as she rarely  leaves her tower (not even for meals!). 
There is a very slim chance  that Trelawney would know Neville 
is clumsy and has a habit of  breaking things as soon as the 
first class starts.<

Trelawney seldom leaves her tower, but students come to visit 
her! Lavender and Parvati are up there for tea all the time.  
Are they her only student friends? Unlikely. Trelawney also 
allows her classes time to visit among themselves before class 
begins.  That gives her plenty of opportunities to pick up student 
gossip-- such as that Neville is a klutz and lives with his 
grandmother .  Of course everyone knows that the Potter boy has 
an enemy. 

Lavender is  suggestible --she's very impressed by 
Trelawney's  dramatic manner -- and having been told to dread 
something happening on the sixteenth of October, no doubt 
spent the ensuing 6 weeks pondering all the dreadful things that 
could happen. If it hadn't been Binky's death, it would have been 
something else

Trelawney is herself suggestible -- look at the way Umbridge 
throws her into a tither--so it's no surprise that she sees death 
omens around Harry.

You don't need to be a Seer to predict that the homework load 
increases around the Easter holidays when the students start 
preparing for exams. That would be when one of them is likely to 
quit. It probably happens often enough, especially to overly 
ambitious third years  who bite off more than they can chew.

Still, Trelawney could be an unconscious Seer the way Ron 
seems to be---maybe she only *thinks* she's a fraud. 

According to McGonagall, Trelawney has incorrectly predicted the 
death of a student each year -- wonder if she was right about 
poor Cedric?


Pippin