Trelawney isn't a fraud

[quigonginger]

No: HPFGUIDX 111547

Mike wrote (sorry about all the snipping, Mike, but I only wanted to 
comment on this one part):
> The last prediction is that a student will leave around Easter for 
> good. This may not like a hard thing to guess, given that you 
either 
> have the Sight and do well or don't have it and struggle, but she 
> gets the date right on again. This is the second time she has 
> predicted the correct time frame so I once again find it hard to 
give 
> it to pure luck.
(snip the rest)

Ginger wonders:
You know, now that you mention it, we've never heard of anyone 
dropping a class mid-year.  Malfoy continues with COMC (why do I 
always try to leave out the O? ;o)) after he is injured.  No one 
ducks out during blast-ended Skrewts that we know of.  They don't 
even leave after they find out Hagrid is a half-giant.

I would think that leaving one of the core classes isn't an option, 
but we've never heard of anyone dropping an elective.  So that 
prophesy is actually not one of SPT's usual playing-the-odds type.  
She is predicting something that isn't commonly done.  And she gives 
a time frame.  Around Easter is pretty vague.  She could have just 
said that one would leave, and left it at that.  If you're hedging 
your bets, it's safer, and you can still claim bragging rights later.

Maybe you're on to something, Mike.  

I'll say one thing about SPT, I do think she's sincere.  But then JKR 
said the same thing about the Sorting Hat.

Ginger, who predicts that someone will join this group soon.