The Toad Lady and Her Disgrace... Disposition of Umbridge

[a_reader2003]

No: HPFGUIDX 90160

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Steve" <bboy_mn at y...> wrote:
> Speculation on future events-
> 
> Question in two parts, what do you think will happen to Umbridge as 
a
> result of her actions before and at Hogwarts, and what do you hope
> will happen to her?
> 

Carolyn:

I think Umbridge is just the latest and most horrible manifestation 
of what is rotten at the MoM, and of the behaviour of bureaucracy 
under threat. Crouch Sr was a previous extreme example - he was 
prepared to use almost any methods to win (including it was 
whispered, the unforgiveable curses). Even Mad-Eye was pretty 
ruthless when he was an Auror, even if he didn't use the curses, 
certainly much more cynical than Dumbledore, judging by Moody's 
comments in the pensieve trial scenes.

Fudge is an archetypal weak, power-loving official, unable to take a 
principled position on anything. I don't think he would regard 
Umbridge as having done anything particularly wrong, only as having 
failed in their attempt to deal with the power-threat from Hogwarts. 
Although Dumbledore & Harry have been proved right about Voldemort, 
and Fudge has now got to be seen to be implementing protective 
policies for the WW, inwardly he must be seething with rage at being 
made to look so stupid. Umbridge likewise - she's more or less psycho 
anyway; I should think her experiences in the forest and at Hogwarts 
have completely tipped her over the edge.

Because the books are getting darker and more complex, I don't 
believe there will be anything so simple and satisfying as bunging 
the pair of them into Azkaban where they belong. Instead, I think 
that in Book 6 at any rate, there will be a continuing sub-plot at 
the MoM, where Fudge, manipulated/goaded on/supported by Umbridge 
(and others) tries to protect his position (and the authority of the 
MoM) longer-term. 

Remember the behaviour of the rest of the Wizengamot - only a few 
openly stood out against the removal of Dumbledore, and most would 
have gone along with Fudge's treatment of Harry at his trial if DD 
hadn't intervened. Arthur, Tonks and Shacklebolt have all had to be 
very circumspect in garnering ministry support up until the end of 
OoP. Its a typical government culture - apart from the Aurors, full 
of cautious, risk-averse types, shuffling paper. 

We also don't know anything about WW election processes, or how 
people can be chucked out. Maybe you get to be Minister of Magic for 
life, or at least until retirement, for instance - which could be 
over 100 years. These sort of timescales might mean that the MoM gets 
riven by the sort of internecine struggle that royal families went in 
for when they really did run the country. In this situation, I could 
envisage Fudge + Umbridge and other extreme supporters doing some 
kind of deal with Voldemort, in the mistaken belief that it will win 
them power over some other faction at the MoM. Its happened plenty of 
times in real life.

We are told that this is exactly how Voldemort works, successively 
tricking, lying, blackmailing, intimidating, and setting people 
against each other. People also do not necessarily hate Voldemort. We 
have the example of the support he got from pure-bloods previously, 
until they saw how far he was prepared to go to win power. There are 
still people around, like Ollivander, who thought he 'did great 
things', even if they were evil. Characters like Filch, and the 
various low-life which hang around Knock-turn Alley would presumably 
be easily recruited.

Perhaps Percy will find out about this deal, and this will be his 
moment of glory - he realises how wrong he has been, tells DD, but 
somehow dies as a result. 

I am sure Umbridge will be killed off eventually, but I think she is 
going to cause much more suffering before she's done.