The Second Voldemort War, Stage II

[Jim Ferer]

No: HPFGUIDX 90939

Before OotP, I posted that Voldemort's strategy in the early stage of 
the Second Voldemort War would be

stay covert and build strength;
undermine Harry and Dumbledore;
Deny the Good Side Hogwarts as a base;
Keep the Ministry complacent and asleep;
Keep the wizard public complacent and asleep.

That pretty much worked out, except that Voldemort and the Death 
Eaters have suffered a major defeat. The existence of a restored 
Voldemort has been outed far too soon; many of the cadre of Death 
Eaters are now captured; Lucius Malfoy is neutralized as an agent of 
influence whether he escapes from Azkaban or not; Cornelius Fudge and 
his excellent complacency is discredited and discgraced; and Harry 
Potter and Albus Dumbledore are not only restored in the public's 
opinion, but have more prestige and credibility than ever.  It just 
couldn't get much worse for the Death Eaters. LV is lucky he salvaged 
Bellatrix from the mess, even though she looks like his most psycho 
and therefore unreliable follower.

So what now for the Death Eaters? How many are left, and what 
quality? Hogwarts seems unassailable now, at least from the kind of 
covert undermining that came close to succeeding in OotP. Are the 
DE's strong enough to attack the school directly?  What about the 
Slytherin students, will they help the DE's, can they? Some of them 
surely aren't actively evil and may come to Dumbledore, and Snape 
will have a pretty good idea what's going on.  What about the 
students whose parents are now in jail? (Or should I say "gaol?")

I fear that one result of this is that Harry and those close to him 
are more endangered than ever.  LV's got nothing to lose now by 
revealing himself, and one obvious way to hurt Harry is through his 
friends, those nearest to him. That means Luna, the Weasleys, the DA 
members, and most of all Ron and Hermione.  They can be attacked at 
home over the summer, and maybe they will be.  We may see more action 
outside of school than before.

This is when the DE's might become more terroristic in the classic 
sense. Horror is the weapon of hatred when conventional means aren't 
available.  DA members might find themselves losing their parents, 
perhaps to Bellatrix's tender mercies. Ministry workers may be 
targets. Hogsmeade visits might be unsafe.

How will Dumbledore respond? Clearly he is the leader of the wizard 
world now, whether Fudge holds on to his title or not. (How Fudge 
could stay in office another day is hard to fathom). Dumbledore and 
the Order will, I believe, have some clear goals:

Protect Hogwarts, the center of resistance to the DE's, and protect 
the students.  The parents will face danger for themselves and not 
panic if they feel their children are safe.

Develop Harry's strengths; the Prophecy makes Harry's preservation an 
absolute strategic necessity.  Only Harry can bring final victory.

Keep the Death Eaters off balance; deny them a base; make them stay 
on the run, with the goal of not allowing them the time and rest to 
formulate and launch attacks.

Conduct an intelligence war against the DE's.  First is to keep the 
Slytherins in the school and make them welcome.  This is the yin to 
the fighting the DE's yang. Some of them will not go along with the 
DE program, and DD ans Snape are likely to find out what's going on 
when many of them have a crisis of conscience.

Defending the school is key, and it can't be done by making the 
school a fortress and waiting behind its walls.  It's never worked in 
the Muggle world, and it won't work in the magic one.  The DE's can't 
be allowed to draw a peaceful breath.  They have to be looking over 
their shoulders every minute.

THIS WON'T WIN THE WAR. Only Harry can do that. This strategy only 
buys time [and saves wizard society] for the final stage to develop, 
the one where Harry and Voldemort confront each other at the end.  
The only sure thing about that is that Harry will pay dearly for it.