Cedric and Pettigrew (was Re: Faking Sirius' Death)

[Barry Arrowsmith]

No: HPFGUIDX 91809

Interesting selection of responses on this thread.
Everybody has thoughts on Sirius and Godrics Hollow (naturally), but 
most are not so sure  that Sirius' actions are not those of an innocent 
man. We'll see.

Because there was such a spread of responses, I've tried to fit all the 
bits that caught my eye into one post in the same order as the numbered 
points I raised in post 91746, so apologies if it seems a touch messy.
Lots of snipping here, but still long.

 >> 1. House at Godrics Hollow wrecked in an explosion.
 >> Explosion? From an AK? How did this happen?


 >Pippin:
That's explained in OOP, where Voldemort fires a bunch of AK's
at Harry and Dumbledore. The first one bounces off a golden
statue, the second one sets a desk on fire, the third blasts a
statue into a hundred pieces. We can surmise that if AK hits
something that can't be killed the results are often violent. The AK 
that was aimed at Harry bounced off, leaving a wound and a psychic 
connection, hit Voldemort, who also couldn't be killed, vaporized his 
body and destroyed the house.
 >

Kneasy:
If AKs were that destructive, I doubt that there would be any bodies 
lying about after a DE  raid. An AK from Voldy missed Harry in the 
graveyard - it cracked a headstone, but it didn't vaporise the whole 
damn plot.
No, an AK just isn't that powerful and if just one scars Harry rebounds 
and destroys Voldy, how much power would it have left?
It's possible, I suppose, that the power released by Voldy's 
dissolution may have had something to do with it, but as all too often 
there's no evidence.
(BTW, fair warning - I'm not  too happy with some aspects of the 
accepted interpretation  of the Lily-Voldy encounter. Watch this 
space.)

 >>Who? Who was there and got the word out?

 >confusinglyso (91794)
I repeat my main question for Godric's Hollow.
How do they all (WW) know with such confidence that Voldemort is
vaporised ?
Answer: They have read about it in that morning's Daily Prophet.
DE's would not have passed on the information.
I don't think Dumbledore was present because I doubt he would want the 
news released so quickly.
For the Daily Prophet to 'print' the story so quickly points to either 
Fudge or Rita Skeeter being present.
 >

Kneasy:
But for  that news to be in the Prophet, there must be an eye-witness 
who actually *saw* Voldy vaporise. Just because the Potters were dead 
and their house a pile of rubble it is not a natural assumption that 
Voldy was destroyed. On the contrary, one would assume that he had 
achieved his aim in getting rid of a few more irritants, *unless* 
someone saw the whole thing and reported it. And he may be keen on 
impressing the  WW  with his powers, but I doubt he'd invite Rita along 
as his Press Agent. Fudge is a different matter. At the time he was not 
Minister of Magic. Was he a DE in the raiding party? If he was, would 
he advertise the fact by recounting the tale?


 >Ffred: (91776)
I've thought this over many times, but the only conclusion I can come 
up  with is that DD had advance knowledge that the attack was coming. 
It would  be easy to conclude from what Hagrid says in PS/SS and POA 
that DD sent him  _after_ the event to get Harry out. But who could 
have told DD?

  The Potters? James tries to hold Voldemort off, Lily runs upstairs,  
scribbles a quick note, ties it to an owl, and chucks it out of the 
window.  I would reject that one because of DD's response. The normal 
DE mode of  operation is that Voldemort arrives with a clutch of his 
lieutenants and acolytes when they decide to commit an atrocity. When 
the Order arrive in OoP to escort Harry from Privet Drive, they come 
mob-handed. But DD sends (I would argue) a maximum of 3 people to 
confront Voldemort himself? Can't  believe that he would waste his 
resources that way.

So the only conclusion is that DD knew in advance.
 >

Kneasy:
Ffred, you're getting as bad as me.
One interpretation of the Prophesy (among many) intimates that James 
and Lily *had* to die to turn Harry into Voldy's!Bane. (They are the 
"...neither can live.." bit).  If, and I admit that it's a bloody 
massive 'if', DD has interpreted it the same way, then yes, he would 
have fore-knowledge and no, he wouldn't try to stop it. To do so might 
prevent the emergence of the main weapon against Voldy.

If that  interpretation is correct it's also possible that the damn 
Prophesy has already been fulfilled. It all depends on how you 
understand the meaning of 'vanquish'. In my dictionary it's defined as 
"to overcome an enemy in battle or conflict" - isn't that what happened 
at Godrics Hollow? A conflict, Harry got marked, Voldy was overcome. 
Many have noted that the Prophesy does not say destroyed, just beaten. 
A beaten enemy can often fight again, one battle is not the entire war 
and everything since is Voldy looking for a re-match. Have we been 
wasting our time with Neville?


 >>Why Hagrid? Wouldn't an Auror be more logical given that the 
 >>Potters were a known target of Voldy and his DEs?

 >Ffred:
  It's a very good question. Hagrid's a good guy in a fight but sending 
him single handed against Voldemort is sending him to certain death. I 
can't escape the conclusion that DD sends at least one other person. No 
canon support, but possibly the Longbottoms are there too - they have 
an involvement with the Prophecy, and it could also explain why the DEs 
went for them later.
  But it's still far too few for a potential major fight. Why isn't DD 
there  himself (as he was at the Ministry in OoP)? Even if (as I've 
argued elsewhere) he not only has foreknowledge of Voldemort's attack 
but also the fact that only Voldemort and Peter will be there, why not 
make a more serious attempt to save James and Lily's lives?
 >

Kneasy:
Exactly. Hagrid's a good bloke, but he can't rescue and fight at the 
same time.
If he's solely on a rescue and recovery mission, it  argues that DD 
already knows what has happened and that there is no further risk from 
DEs. Again, how does he know?

I like the idea that the Longbottoms were there -  it does explain why 
they were later tortured, but why no mention in despatches from the 
front-line?

 >Bluesqueak (91779)
  Two words: 'heavy' and 'lifting'. The house was destroyed; I reckon it 
fell down on top of Harry (the mysterious wizarding ability to survive 
normal accidents protecting him from falling masonry).
Wizards can make fairly largish objects fly through the air, but
magically lifting an entire blitzed out house might be too much for 
even someone as powerful as Dumbledore.
 >

Kneasy:
Tut, tut! Bluesqueak, you're thinking in Muggle terms! That's not like 
you! Wizards always, always, always, think of solutions to problems by 
magical means. The stadium for the QWC was constructed by thousands of 
wizards, nary a crane nor a JCB in sight. But suppose you are correct; 
it again means that DD  knew *exactly* what the situation was.

 >annemehr: (91787)
I don't know how the WW at large found out, but since OoP I wonder if 
DD hadn't had one of those "reliable methods of communicating" with the 
Potters, or some sort of trouble detector. In a world with sneakoscopes 
and foe glasses, and magic two-way mirrors, I would think he would 
have.
I wonder if DD's watch with the twelve hands told him that Lily and 
James were dead and Harry was alive. I wonder if he could have had a 
hand for Voldemort, too.
Dumbledore wouldn't send anyone from the Ministry. Hagrid is someone DD 
would trust with his life, and handily enough, stunners (and who knows 
what else) bounce right off him. He might have sent *only* Hagrid 
because of the trust factor, too.
 >

Kneasy:
Neat idea. I'd  forgotten about that watch. Just the sort of sneaky 
thing JKR would do- give it a passing mention then expand on the idea 
in CoS when we weren't looking.
But still, it wouldn't tell him about a building wrecked or if there 
were undesirables still in the vicinity.
And he wouldn't 'officially' send anyone from the Ministry, no. But 
there are plenty of Aurors in the Order; isn't this just the sort of 
thing the order was founded for?
DD knows too much and we don't know enough.

 >> Sirius arrives. He later states that he went to check up on
 >> Peter and found him gone, so he then went to the Potter
 >> house,  saw the wreckage and their bodies.
 >> He immediately suspects Peter - *but tells no-one!*
 >> Come on! Pull the other one, it's got bells on.

 > Pippin: (91778)
*Did* Hagrid meet Sirius at Godric's Hollow? Or was it a DE
disguised by polyjuice or metamorphmagic? Sirius never says
anything about meeting Hagrid, you'll note.

IMO, the real Sirius arrived at Godric's Hollow after Harry and
Hagrid were gone, saw James and Lily's bodies, then took off in
pursuit of Peter. He wasn't thinking very clearly, and he didn't know 
yet that he'd supposedly declared himself Voldemort's second in 
command. Nobody did, or he'd have been
apprehended on the spot.
 >

Kneasy:
This is novel. You're suggesting that a DE helps Hagrid to rescue Harry 
and to deliver him to DD. Why would he do that?
It would also require the perpetrator to have bits of Sirius in store 
and to able to predict the need for the potion a month in advance, that 
being how long it takes to brew the Polyjuice Potion. And there's no 
evidence that Metamorphagi can copy an individual, just that they can 
change their appearance.


 > Annemehr:
I think it's because he saw no point to it. I think the only people 
left alive who knew there *was* a secret-keeper were DD, Sirius and 
Peter, and Sirius never saw DD before he was thrown into Azkaban. 
Perhaps the silly man expected to have a trial and a chance to convince 
DD.

Sirius didn't say anything to Hagrid, because Hagrid didn't know about 
any Fidelius Charm IMO, Hagrid only knew the Potters had gone into 
hiding. In the Three Broomsticks in PoA, Hagrid said, "Never occurred 
ter me what he was doin' there. I didn' know he'd bin Lily an' James's 
Secret-Keeper." I can see Sirius not stopping to tell the whole story 
just then; he'd probably figure he'd sort it out with DD later, if he 
thought of anything at all beyond finding Pettigrew.
 >

Kneasy:
A key question: when did James and Lily go into hiding? Was it a recent 
development, or did it happen soon after Harry's birth, nearly 15 
months previously? How long determines how widespread the news was that 
they were in hiding and therefore were likely to have a Secret Keeper. 
If it were longer than say, a couple of weeks their friends (of whom 
they had many - Hagrid collected photos from them remember) would 
wonder where they were or why they couldn't contact them.

But  the crux of everything is why Sirius doesn't say anything.
There were four in on the secret - James, Lily, Sirius, Peter.
So far as anyone else would be aware, even after  the event when guilt 
was being assigned, there were three. Only Peter can give confirmation 
to Sirius' story - yet he's the one Sirius sets off to kill.

We all accept that Sirius is hot-headed, rash, intemperate. He also 
shoots his mouth off. It is not in character for him to say nothing, to 
point the finger at nobody. He'd be  expected to rant and rave, scream 
"I'll get him for this!" and then seek revenge and retribution. A 
silent Sirius is  a contradiction in terms. Unless he was afraid of 
something even more secret being revealed.



 >> At the Shrieking Shack Sirius tells us that the DEs in
 >> Azkaban accept that Peter betrayed the Potters. The DEs also >> 
assumed that Peter betrayed Voldy, but was now presumed to be >> dead. 
So how come it was a secret to the rest of the WW? Why >> would the DEs 
hide his role in the affair?

 >Ffred:
I don't think that the DEs have any desire to pass on _any_ information 
about _anything_. After all, it's not going to get them out of Azkaban. 
Also, having accepted that Sirius was the traitor, why ask them.

Kneasy:
No one had to ask them; they were screaming it from their cells.
It was not a secret - except to everyone else who happened to listen to 
Fudge or the Ministry.
The Ministry was entirely too keen to hush up the whole affair.
No one seems to have asked why or how the Godrics Hollow incident 
happened - which is ridiculous. No one performs a 'Prior Incantato' on 
either Sirius's or Peter's wands. Why not?
Just what was the Ministry up to? OK; Crouch was a hanging judge and 
Fudge wanted a quiet life, but did nobody from the Order ask any 
questions? Sirius, Peter, James and Lily were all members, weren't 
they? Don't they look after their own? The only reason why they 
wouldn't ask questions is if DD told them not to. And that leads to 
very deep waters.

It all comes back to a previous point - there was someone who passed 
out the news of what had happened; they told of Voldy's dissolution and 
probably fingered Sirius as the culprit who guided him there. Best bet 
is Peter.


 >>To stretch the envelope a bit, suppose what he has to hide is >> some 
sort of association with Voldy, just as Peter suggested >> in the 
Shrieking Shack. He'd really want to keep that quiet. >> Voldy was 
gone, James was dead, Lily was dead - now who else >> needs tidying up? 
Ah, yes! Peter. Grief-stricken friend hunts >> down filthy traitor and 
zaps him in the street. Unfortunate >> but understandable. Poor chap. 
Too upset to call the Aurors >> and get Pettigrew taken alive for 
questioning.
 >> Now no-one need ever know.

 >Ffred:
Lends a new dimension to the conversation in the graveyard, doesn't it? 
Just as DD had more than one spy in the DEs, it's quite believable that 
Voldemort had more than one traitor in the Order...

Kneasy:
How interesting! Join the club, if you're not a member already.
Now all we have to do is decide who. Pippin has plumped for Lupin and I 
go for Sirius. You pays your money and you takes your choice. 
Personally I think there are too many questions raised by Sirius. It's 
a bit like astronomy - the presence of an orbiting body is signaled by 
it's effect on others. So far we have no direct evidence; it's how 
others react that catches our notice. For example:

 >Bluesqueak (91779)
Oh, and rats aren't on the approved pets list. How *did* Percy get 
permission to bring a rat to school? That one, particular rat.
 >

Kneasy:
How true. It's been mentioned before, mostly when questioning what 
Puppetmaster!DD is up to. He's generally been accepted as being on the 
good side (with notable dissenters), but it's entirely possible that 
he's playing a different game. Suppose he knew all about the 
Sirius/Peter swap - given his track record that's entirely reasonable. 
Why has he kept his mouth shut? If Malfoy can recognise Sirius as a 
dog, I'm certain that with his supposed omnipotence around Hogwarts, DD 
knew exactly who Scabbers was. Perhaps he put Peter up to the whole 
thing.


 >confusinglyso (91794)
Fudge is Evil, he had Crouch Junior 'Dementor Kissed' in
GoF and intended same fate for Sirius in PoA, both without trial.
Neither Crouch nor Sirius would then be a danger to Fudge.
Kneasy also implicates Fudge in Sirius' 'escape' from Azkaban.
DD is not the only one with a cunning plan.
 >

Kneasy:
Damn right.
I've posted before on Sirius' fortuitous escape from Azkaban (see 
thread Sirius Reservations-79808) and the purely coincidental visit of 
Fudge to Azkaban the night before he escapes. He must have been sprung; 
  being a dog didn't protect him from the Dementors after the Shrieking 
Shack - he passed out when they attacked Harry, so how come he slides 
out of their home patch?
No, no, no. It won't do.
Anybody'd think I came up the Liffey on a lily. I'm not that daft.





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