Umbridge's Motives at TBAY (Longish)

[augustinapeach]

No: HPFGUIDX 89423

The sky over Theory Bay was a pale grey, broken here and there by a 
small spot of blue where it seemed the sun could break through, if 
only it would try hard enough.  It was under this ambivalent sky 
that a small raft of cedar logs slipped into the bay, bearing a 
single person – a woman whose dark hair was extremely untidy.  

Feeling the gentle bump of the raft on the sand, the woman stood and 
walked onto the beach, without looking up.  Instead, she was staring 
at two slips of paper, one in each hand.  She would gaze at one slip 
for a while, then at the other.  Then suddenly, she would reach up 
to her hair and pull at it in apparent frustration.  So engrossed 
was she in staring at the papers that she walked right into George, 
who was standing on the beach trying to decide if he should lower 
the umbrellas on the patio tables in case a wind blew in with these 
clouds.

"Hey!" he said, as the woman walked on his foot.  "Watch where 
you're going!"

"Sorry," the woman mumbled, without even looking at him.  She 
continued to walk down the beach.

George stared after her for a moment.  Then, both because of his 
curiosity and because he wasn't used to women who didn't look 
appreciatively at him, he followed her.

"Wait!" he called, catching up to her.  "Who are you?  What are you 
looking at?"

The woman turned a troubled set of brown eyes to him. "I'm looking –
" She seemed to struggle for words.  "I'm trying -- It's these!"  
She thrust the slips of paper at him.  

They said simply "89351" and "89383."  Then he understood.  He took 
the woman's arm and steered her toward a small stone bench that was 
conveniently nearby.  "Sit down," he said.  "You look exhausted.  
And you didn't tell me your name."  

The woman took several long breaths.  Finally, she seemed ready to 
speak.  

"I'm Augustina Peach.  It's Dolores Umbridge.  Last summer, I had 
these same questions about her.  But  others have argued so 
convincingly that she was not connected with Voldemort that I forced 
it from my mind.  But now these ---- and all those questions are 
back.  I just don't know whether I'm going to a D.I.S.A.S.T.E.R. or 
a D.U.N.G.H.I.L.L."

George blinked.  "What?"

"Is it a D.I.S.A.S.T.E.R. – Dolores Is Surely A Spy To Eliminate 
Resistance, or is it a D.U.N.G.H.I.L.L – Dolores Umbridge is Not 
Giving Help In Lord (V's) Lark?  The problem is, there are can(n)ons 
on each side.  Every time I think I have it figured out, I realize 
the other explanation is also perfectly plausible."

Suddenly the words began to pour from Augustina, as if she had been 
suppressing them for so long she would explode if she didn't say 
them now.
"Most of the time I think the evidence points to a 
D.I.S.A.S.T.E.R.   First, the Order believes they need to have spies 
in the Ministry because Voldemort certainly will have his own spies 
(OoP, p. 95).  It makes sense that he would want to have a spy in 
the top levels of the Ministry, and as Umbridge is a senior 
undersecretary, she clearly has access to and influence with Fudge.  
Certainly Lucius Malfoy is influential at the Ministry with his 
donations – and probably his Imperius curses – but he's not going to 
be at the Ministry all the time or a part of the day-to-day decision 
processes.

"Then there is the desire of the Ministry to suppress information 
about Voldemort's return.  Keeping that news quiet serves 
Voldemort's purposes more than it does those of the Ministry in the 
long run.  Once Voldemort is allowed, without interference, to 
return to full power, it is a safe bet that he will try – probably 
successfully – to overthrow the Ministry's power.  Fudge's efforts 
to discredit Harry's story play right into Voldemort's long white 
fingers."

"But why would Fudge be so short-sighted?"  George asked.

"Because Fudge is a weak leader who is easily manipulated by 
misinformation," Augustina said darkly.  "Originally, he doesn't 
seem to have any grudges against Dumbledore or Harry.  We know from 
Lupin that when he first became minister, Fudge was `forever asking 
Dumbledore for help and advice' (OoP, p. 94).  In PS/SS, Hagrid says 
Fudge `pelts Dumbledore with owls every morning, askin' for advice' 
(p.65). Throughout most of the story, Fudge has a kindly, fatherly 
attitude toward Harry.  At the end of PoA, Fudge says, `Harry 
Potter, you know. . . .we've all got a bit of a blind spot where 
he's concerned' (p. 387).  At the beginning of GoF, Fudge greets 
Harry `like an old friend' and introduces him to the foreign wizards 
(p. 100).  Even as late as Harry's dream in Trelawney's class, Fudge 
is friendly to Harry, greeting him `jovially' (GoF, p. 581).  So why 
does he change his attitude toward Harry so drastically in a month 
or less?  Why does that change of attitude coincide so neatly with 
the night of Voldemort's rebirth?"

"Well, Harry thinks it is because of the article in the Daily 
Prophet," George offered.

"Exactly!  But why would Fudge believe a *single* article in the 
Daily Prophet, *especially* one written by Rita Skeeter?"  
Augustina's eyes had a slightly maniacal gleam, George thought in 
alarm.  "At the beginning of GoF, Rita has been writing articles so 
critical of the ministry that Percy says she's `got it in for the 
Ministry" (p. 147).  If Rita has been such a critic of the Ministry, 
why would Fudge suddenly start to believe her – UNLESS – the article 
about Harry confirms in print the misinformation Fudge has been 
hearing about Harry and Dumbledore for most of the year!  Between 
the two of them, Umbridge and Malfoy could influence Fudge to see 
events in a way favorable to Voldemort's plans.

"To be fair, I suppose anyone in the ministry could have been 
feeding Fudge subtle hints about Harry's mental instability and 
Dumbledore's lust for power.  However, Umbridge is as good a 
candidate as any.  Maybe she was a Voldemort supporter during VWI –
not a Death Eater," she added quickly, seeing the look of disbelief 
that George wore. "Maybe she was recruited by Malfoy.  Certainly she 
has qualities that would make her receptive to Voldemort's 
philosophy – lust for power, prejudice against half-breeds, a streak 
of real cruelty, disregard for laws when they don't suit her 
purposes. Obviously, she knows the Malfoys well and is very friendly 
with them.   She's too bumbling to be an effective Death Eater, but 
I'd bet my copy of OoP she would be more than willing to use her 
position to do a few favors for Lucius.  At the end of PS/SS, just 
who sent that `urgent owl' to call Dumbledore to the Ministry at the 
very point when Quirrell was ready to go through the trapdoor?  

"I suppose," said George, beginning to wonder if Augustina would 
notice if he slipped away.

"And there is this business about the dementors in the alleyway.  
Why dementors?  If the Ministry -- or one of its representatives -- 
wants to tempt Harry into performing underage magic so he can be 
expelled, there are lots of less permanent ways to accomplish the 
goal, right?  So, is the goal really expulsion?  At the end of PoA, 
Fudge doesn't know that Harry can produce a Patronus.  He asks 
Snape, "you've really no idea what made (the dementors) retreat?" 
(p. 387).  Unless Harry's ability has become public knowledge during 
his fourth year at Hogwarts – which I don't think is the case, 
judging by the reactions of people to this news during OoP -- 
sending dementors after him in Little Whinging is not a temptation 
to do magic – it is a blatant attempt at murder!  And who is 
responsible for this attempt? – Dolores Umbridge!

"Once she's at Hogwarts, Umbridge's behavior is no less suspicious.  
All her actions toward Harry seem designed to keep him from talking 
about Voldemort, or to get him expelled from Hogwarts and away from 
Dumbledore, or to deprive him of any pleasure in life.  Maybe she's 
just mean, or . . ."

"Maybe she just sees Harry as a threat to the stability and 
authority of the Ministry," George interjected.

"Then why doesn't she treat Hermione the same way she treats 
Harry?"  Augustina shot back.  "Hermione challenges Umbridge's 
Ministry-approved teaching methods not once, but twice, in class.  
Hermione is the one who brings up the need for practical education 
in defense, which would put her clearly in Dumbledore's "militant" 
camp, in the Ministry's view.  If Umbridge were really trying to 
solidify the Ministry's authority at Hogwarts, she would punish 
Hermione as severely as she punishes Harry for bringing up 
Voldemort's name.  So why does Hermione only lose five points from 
Gryffindor (OoP, p. 317) while Harry gets a week's detention of 
writing lines in his own blood?  Clearly, it is Harry who is the 
major target because he knows the truth about Voldemort, not because 
Umbridge is worried about the Ministry's authority." 

Augustina sighed.  "There's more," she said.  "The inspections of 
the faculty closest to Dumbledore or the prophecy.  The way she 
appears to be baiting Snape during his inspection. The way she asks 
Hagrid about "mountain scenery" when she's questioning him on the 
night he returned from his trip (OoP, p. 437) – would she really 
know he had been to see the giants if she weren't communicating with 
Death Eaters?  I mean, I know the MoM had someone trailing him, but 
he got away from the tail in France, long before he actually got to 
the giants (OoP, p. 426).  There's the way she almost hysterically 
tries to pin the responsibility for Dumbledore's Army on Harry so 
that he will definitely be expelled.  But after Dumbledore takes 
responsibility, she has nothing else to say.  And there's this whole 
matter of her starting to use the Cruciatus Curse on Harry to get 
information from him.  If she wanted him to do what she wanted, to 
give the information she wanted, why didn't she use "Imperio," eh?  
Because she knew it wouldn't work!  The Death Eaters were witnesses 
to Harry's ability to throw off the Imperious Curse!"  She suddenly 
pulled at her hair again.  "But Hogwarts is also where the 
D.I.S.A.S.T.E.R. starts to come apart.  Umbridge's cover story of 
trying to eliminate threats to the Ministry is completely consistent 
with her behavior at Hogwarts – maybe it is a D.U.N.G.H.I.L.L., 
after all.  I'm . . . . I'm just so tired."  She fell silent.

"Come on," said George, rising from the bench.  "I know just the 
place for you. Let's see if they'll take you at the Safe House, with 
the MAGIC DISHWASHER.  You'll like it there, and you can get some 
rest.  And maybe a good hair stylist," he added, as they began to 
walk slowly up the beach.