THE MAP...... Again

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 89483

Kneasy: 
> I'm  all for conspiracy theories, but somebody has to be a 
goodie!<

Yes, it's Dumbledore! <g>

Kneasy:
>> So far from the previous generation we have Snape (exDE), 
Peter (traitor), Sirius (about whom I have grave suspicions), now 
there's Lupin!ESE.<<

There is, as JKR has allowed, a theme of redemption. So I 
predict the final tally will be: ; Snape, redeemed; Pettigrew, 
redeemed; Sirius,  a Slytherin who's not as Black as he was 
painted;  Lupin, ESE. 

Kneasy:
> 
> True, a case can be made for Lupin!ESE, starting with why he 
wasn't affected by the Dementor on the train, but DE? Not so 
happy with that one. Why would he be protected by a Fedelius 
charm? If the DEs used them for mutual protection how come 
Snape can shop a load of 'em to Crouch? What's so special 
about Lupin that he gets his own personal protection?<

He's Voldemort's second in command, Fudge tells us so, 
though of course he thinks he's talking about Sirius. Lesser DE's 
aren't so protected, because Voldemort doesn't trust them, and 
because Fidelius is immensely complex and difficult. 


> >But I'm puzzled why Lupin should be so interested in the Trio 
going to Hagrids hut in the first place. The way the passage is 
written, it seems that Hagrids hut is a blank spot on the map; he 
doesn't see Pettigrew on the map until they have *left* the hut - or 
at least that's what he claims. I don't think I believe him. I think
he knew exactly  where Scabbers was all along and was 
keeping an eye on him.  Almost certainly he's guessed where 
Sirius was hiding out, too. He was waiting for it all to come 
together. <<

How can he be sure it will come together? Scabbers is 
discovered in Hagrid's hut by accident. 

But ESE!Lupin makes it simple.  ESE!Lupin thinks that Peter is 
dead, just as he says in the Shack. He's  watching the Map that 
night because he's planning to kill Snape.  He  pretends that he 
didn't take his potion, knowing that will bring Snape after him. He 
takes the potion in secret (Snape's made a whole cauldronful if 
he needs more <g>), Soon he'll  have the powers and magic 
resistance of a werewolf body and the cunning of a human brain. 
He'll leave the Map activated and rush out to the Shack. Snape 
will follow to see what he's up to, just as he did twenty-odd years 
before. The murder will look like a tragic accident. Dumbledore 
will hush it up. At worst, Lupin may have to leave Hogwarts, but 
he doesn't care: Peter's dead, the traitor Snape is dead, mission 
accomplished. 

Of course Buckbeak's execution has been inconveniently 
scheduled for a night of full moon. Lupin suspects that Harry and 
Hermione will go down to see Hagrid, and there's all those 
Ministry folk around (the Committee for the Disposal of 
Dangerous Creatures, how apt.) Naturally he's watching the map 
for them--and then, Pettigrew re-appears and Sirius nabs him. 
Uh oh. 

But Sirius, bless him, hauls Peter off to the Shack and the Trio 
follow. ESE!Lupin's plan will still work, if he hurries. If he spots 
the cloak on the ground (why wouldn't he?) , he leaves it for 
Snape to find, the better to lure Snape into coming after him right 
away and not going back for help.

 Who was Peter was trying to fool with his second fake 
death? Not Crookshanks, obviously. And if not Crookshanks, 
then not Sirius. Peter's fake death follows immediately on the 
theft of the passwords. He knows Sirius is coming for him. He's 
got to scarper. But why bother with the fake death? If 
Crookshanks is in communication with Sirius then he won't be 
fooled, if not, then how will Sirius hear about it?

 But if Peter could convince *Voldemort's* agents that he was 
really dead this time, all he would have to do is wait quietly in 
Hagrid's hut for rash, risk-taking Sirius to get himself caught 
once more, and for Crookshanks to go home with Hermione. It 
almost worked.

I can't disprove Devious!Dumbledore, but the trouble I have with 
Dumbledore conpiracies is that they ignore the second front. 
Dumbledore's got to keep Harry alive *and* he has to keep the 
Dark Forces from taking over.  If  DD lets Voldemort's forces *or 
his philosophy*  entrench themselves as legitimate, then he'll 
have lost even if Harry eventually kills the Dark Lord--we saw that 
in OOP. On the second front, Dumbledore's moral authority is the 
most powerful weapon he has. I don't think he'll throw it away.

Pippin