24 hours again

[Mandy]

No: HPFGUIDX 103908

 Kneasy wrote:
You could go back even further.
<snip> And I was  asked a question I've never considered before:
Who told Voldy that the Potters and Longbottoms were the hot 
favourites for starring roles in the upcoming Herod re-enactment? 
IIRC, DD says that he identified Harry and Neville as likely 
candidates from families *that were in the Order*. A nice 
distinction. Presumably he produced his short-list based on 
the "thrice defied" phrase (another blank spot in our knowledge -  
have they faced Voldy 3 times and survived? Then why not also at GH?)

Mandy here:
Like you imply, it seems unlikely that LV tried to kill both the 
Potters and the Longbottoms three times each and failed.  It doesn't 
say much about LV strength and ability does it?  The defiance must 
not be death, but the refusal to do something he commanded.   Perhaps 
LV was laying down laws regarding inter-marring and having children 
with non-pure bloods?  (That would fit with the Potters, but not the 
Longbottoms.)  Just being in the Order could be considered a 
defiance.  Particularly as Order members were being executed left, 
right and center, perhaps LV decreed the murders would stop if they 
all turned themselves over to him? 


Kneasy wrote:
He's heard the Prophecy but tells no-one  about it. He makes his
deductions. Meanwhile the eavesdropper hears only the first 
part of the Prophecy (how much of it? We need to know!). It then 
takes *2 years* for Voldy to react.  Why? If the eavesdropper is a
Voldy supporter and passes the message on, that plus Peter (who
according to Sirius worked with the baddies for 2 years before the
GH debacle) leads one to think that he would have made his strike
much sooner.

Mandy here:
There were no children at the time of the prophecy.  They had yet to 
come.  So LV somehow finds out that his downfall will be born in the 
7th month (July) to those who have defied him 3 times.  So we have to 
assume that LV begins to watch those who had or will have defied him 
3 times up to and including July 1979 and 1980 and looking to see 
which ones get pregnant around October of 1978 and 1979.  That's a 
lot of waiting and watching, it would be easier to wipe them all 
out.  But then we have been told that the Order were being picked off 
one by one during those few years before GH. 

We also only have Sirius word that Peter was passing on info for 2 
years and I wouldn't trust Sirius Black to know anything reliable.  
Sirius has to cover his own ass for the stupid mistake he made in 
suggesting Peter for the job he, himself, was too scared to do.  He 
is going to believe anything that makes himself feel better about 
what he had done.  Also the only place Sirius could have found out 
that tidbit about Peter spying for so long had to have been in 
Azkaban, from the mouths of the DE.  Sirius would be naively stupid 
to believe what he hears in prison from the enemy.  But then again, 
he was naively stupid.  I wouldn't put it past Bella to say anything 
she can think of torture Sirius.   Do we have that information about 
Peter from a more reliable source?  
 

Kneasy wrote:
This could indicate that the eavesdropper *didn't* pass on the 
information immediately, but waited a looong time  before doing so.
Or that there was *another* leak much closer to the time of the actual
attack. This leak was then picked up by DD's agent and passed back.
Otherwise the protracted time delay followed by the sudden hurry-up
to get the Potters under cover doesn't make much sense. This would 
sit very well with your theory of a fourth (or even fifth?)  person 
being involved. 
It do get complicated, don't it?

Mandy:
Yes, but what fun!