Snape's part in death of Sirius - Revised Time

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 108223

> Magda wrote:

> Sorry but I really don't see your point, Neri.  What was Snape
> supposed to do?  Force his way into Umbridge's office and take him
> away at wandpoint to get him to 12GP?  And why go to 12GP in the
> first place?

Neri:

I can easily generate speculations what Snape could have done. It 
will all be speculations, since I don't know the details of the 
situation, but the point is that are many possibilities:

1. First and foremost, Snape should explain the situation to HQ and 
ask (or rather demand) assistance.

2. Sirius can apparate in Hogsmead and find Harry in the forest as a 
dog, running much faster than a Human and using his sense of smell to 
track Harry. Umbridge doesn't know about Sirius being an animagus. 

3. Tonks can appear at Hogwarts as McGonagall ("it turned out my 
condition wasn't that bad after all") to help with marshaling the 
troops. DA members can be enlisted to locate Harry in the forest.

4. It is quite possible that Hagrid may be called from his hideout to 
search the forest. He should take care that Umbridge doesn't spot 
him, however. At the very least he can supply some good advice.

5. Shakelbolt can enlist all the ministry's Aurors to guard around 
the DoM ("we have information that Black might be seeking to steal 
Pluto"). They actually have good chances to catch the DEs even before 
Harry makes it to the DoM.

7. Moody or Aberforth should be able to locate DD in several hours. 

And so on and so forth. Possibilities always increase exponentially 
when there are several good people eager to help.

> Magda wrote:
> Once he was aware that they had gone to the forest, he went after
> them and notified the Order on the chance that Harry had gone to the
> MOM

Neri:
There were several hours in which he either didn't inquire about 
Harry's status, or knew what happened and didn't call HQ. I'm talking 
about what he could have done in these hours. 

> Magda wrote:
> The other Order members would not have a lot of faith in Snape's
> ability to handle a situation if he fired off all-points-bulletins 
to
> rouse the troops every time Harry had a bad dream or vision. 

Neri:
We are talking here about security issues and handling war 
emergencies. Especially when you're on the defense, you are expected 
to err twenty times on the side of caution, so you won't err once on 
the other side and lose people lives and possibly the war. You see 
Order member grumping about Moody's paranoia all the time, but they 
know he's the right man for the right job. 

The problem might be that Severus' teamwork sucks. Why can't he 
simply ask for assistance when he is alone in a difficult situation? 
Possibly he was a double agent too much time? 

Pippin wrote in:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/108169

It's possible that you are right, and Snape waited as long as he 
dared because
he didn't really care what happened to Harry. But it's also possible 
that he
waited as long as he dared because he didn't trust anyone at HQ 
except DD.

Neri:
Lets explore a bit the interesting speculation that Snape delayed 
contacting HQ because he didn't trust anyone except DD. First, why 
would Snape suspect someone in HQ at all? Possibly, because he 
concluded (or saw in Harry's mind) that Harry had managed to contact 
HQ before Umbridge caught him, and since Harry still believes Sirius 
is in the DoM someone must have gave him the wrong information. Snape 
is an experienced secret agent, very likely a double agent. This is 
exactly the kind of problems he can solve for breakfast. What should 
he do in such a case? 

The obvious solution is call DD, but in order for this speculation to 
work at all we have to assume that Snape doesn't have the means to 
call DD, or that DD is not available. What's next? Certainly NOT 
waiting and doing nothing. The fact that the mole in HQ took the risk 
of giving Harry the false information suggests that a dangerous plot 
is afoot right now at these very moments. The mole cannot hope to 
maintain his cover much longer now. He will be discovered as soon as 
Harry is back in contact and his testimony is crosschecked with 
Sirius' testimony. So the mole must have sacrificed his cover for the 
big prize, the very mission for which he exists. What would be this 
mission?

At this point, Snape must be quite dense NOT to suspect that the plot 
might be luring Harry to the DoM. How would this be achieved? Snape 
might not be aware of the Thestrals in the forest (he really should 
ask Hagrid for some remedial CFMC, especially since DD seems to use 
the Thestrals for transportation). But even so there are other ways 
Harry might reach London. As Pippin noted, Harry might get to 
Hogsmead and use someone's fireplace. And even if the plot is NOT 
luring Harry to the DoM, it is still afoot at these very moments and 
must be critical enough for the mole to blow his cover for it. What 
should Snape do now?

This problem is actually much easier than the poison bottles puzzler 
in SS/PS. As Pippin noted before, the one man Snape can trust not to 
be the mole is Sirius, since Sirius couldn't have told Harry that 
Sirius went to the DoM. So Snape has to contact HQ again and talk 
with Sirius. Then he should tell Sirius about Harry and the possible 
mole, and demand gathering immediately all the Order members that can 
be reached. These are probably Lupin, Moody, Tonks and Shaklebolt. It 
is extremely unlikely that all of them or even most of them are 
traitors. Snape would then demand that they will update as many as 
possible other Order members about the situation. At this stage the 
identity of the mole might already be revealed. If not, then some of 
the members (preferably more than two) should go look for DD. 
Shaklebolt and Tonks should contact MoM security and tell them to 
increase alert in general and especially around the DoM. In the 
meantime Sirius is the most trustable man, so he should aparate to 
the skirts of the forest and go look for Harry. The identity of the 
mole can wait until Harry is located.

Snape can't know this part, but the mole would probably be uncovered 
very quickly (it will be very difficult for Kreacher to tell Sirius 
direct lies) and at that point in time the Order has at least an hour 
to locate Harry in the forest before he takes off to London, at least 
two hours to intercept him before he lands at the MoM, and a chance 
of finding DD even before that.

So the problem is not that Snape can't trust HQ. Perhaps the problem 
is that Snape won't ask Sirius for assistance?

Neri