[HPforGrownups] The Twins' Bet (Was: Ron=DD?)

[Robert A. Rosenberg]

No: HPFGUIDX 100217

At 07:52 +0000 on 03/29/2004, justcarol67 wrote about [HPforGrownups] 
The Twins' Bet (Was: Ron=DD?):

>I see no need to assume that the twins used a time turner here.
>Apparently such devices are rare and require special permission. All
>the twins needed to do was to use their considerable intelligence in
>looking at two facts in relation to the nature of the game: The Irish
>had the best *team* in the world, but Bulgaria had the best Seeker.
>Note that *Ron* wore a hat and rosette supporting Ireland but bought a
>miniature figure of Krum. The twins took this awareness a bit farther.
>It was very likely that Krum would outmaneuver the Irish seeker and
>catch the Snitch, but the Snitch is hard to spot and usually is not
>caught until well into the game. The excellent Irish team would have
>plenty of time to score while Viktor was either watching for the
>Snitch or diverting the other seeker with feints. It really wasn't
>that hard to figure out. No need for a time turner; just good betting
>instincts and a knowledge of quidditch.

I agree with your analysis (which agreed with mine even before I read 
your reply).


My analysis goes as follows. A Quidditch match is really two separate 
and independent games (if you ignore any 
interference-with/attacking-of the Seeker by any of the other players 
other than the opposing Seeker).

The Seeker Game as has its objective to capture the Snitch, score the 
points for doing so, and end the match. OTOH, the Main Game (played 
by the rest of the team) has as its objective to score points and 
prevent the other team from scoring points (or at least score more 
points than they do).

More specifically, there is a secondary objective which differs based 
on if you are currently the leading or trailing (in points) team. The 
Leading team wants to score and maintain enough more points than the 
trailing team so that no matter which Seeker eventually captures the 
Snitch (thus ending the match) they will be guaranteed to win the 
match. The trailing team wants to gain the lead or at least keep the 
point spread small enough that IF (When?) their Seeker captures the 
Snitch, the bonus points will push their score past that of the 
leading team.

Given the difference in skill levels between the Irish and Bulgarian 
teams, it was almost a given that the Irish team would be have an 
unbeatable lead at the end of the match (as would be their objective 
per the above list of objectives). OTOH, Krum was so much better a 
Seeker than the Bulgarian Seeker, that he was (again almost) assured 
to be the one who captured the Snitch thus ending the match.

Given this analysis, it is not that hard to assume that the twins 
handicapped the match this way and thus placed that split bet.