[HPforGrownups] 24 hours again

[manawydan]

No: HPFGUIDX 103746

Kneasy wrote:
>I'd always assumed that DD surmised the probability of an attack on
>the Potters from reading between the lines of the Prophecy. What we
>don't know is how long the Potters were in hiding - a snippet of info
>that could be enlightening. Did they suddenly rush off after a recent
>warning (Snape perhaps?) or had they been in hiding for some time,
>sort of on general principles?  It matters, I think - it affects whatever
>theory you want to put together.
>
>For the time being I'd prefer to keep it simple - the putative Fourth
>Man can vamp 'till ready in the background until his appearance is
>necessary to explain the inexplicable.
>But if you want to posit an alternative....

Unless you think there's sufficient in the Prophecy to decide the exact date
and time that Voldemort is going to arrive, then I don't think that would
work.  I _think_ that we're talking about a fairly short space of time that
they were in hiding. But the biggest thing that supports the Fourth Person
is just the short space of time in which the events take place.

Point 1. Could someone have told Dumbledore at or just after the attack?
Who?

The Potters? I don't think they had time. If they'd seen Voldemort and Peter
arrive, there might have just been time to rush out of the back door and
disappear on broomsticks while he was breaking the front door down - time
for Lily and Harry even if not for James. As we understand it, James was
busy defending the house against Voldemort while Lily does a runner to
Harry's room. Would she have had time to write a note and owl it to
Dumbledore? I don't think so, even if she'd not been affected by the fact
that the Arch Enemy was brutally murdering her husband downstairs. Likewise,
I don't think she'd have risked being caught with her head in the fireplace
trying to make a call through the Floo.

A Death Eater? There's no way one of them would have got in touch with
Dumbledore, unless it was someone trying to redeem themselves. In which case
(and the same question would go for another member of the Order), why not
rescue Harry? Why wait until Hagrid gets there to do it?

A neighbour? Unless they were also a member of the Order, they would most
likely have contacted the Ministry rather than Dumbledore.

Point 2. There's been a very loud bang and a house collapsing where no one
ever noticed one before. Hagrid reports that he just had time to get Harry
out and away before the Muggles started swarming around (as well as having
his chat with Sirius). Especially for someone like Hagrid (who's not
officially supposed to use magic and has to get away before the Ministry
arrives), travelling somewhere takes time, even if they go by some very fast
method like a Thestral.

Point 3. I'm not happy with the idea of a warning device - the big problem
with any sort of device is that you have to have someone watching it at the
other end to know there's a problem.

All of these lead me to think that Dumbledore had advance knowledge, but not
much. Just enough time to get a few people there, arriving in time to
witness what happened but not to influence it.

And I'm still with you about Dumbledore spending his time debriefing (or
perhaps interrogating) the source of his information.

Cheers

Ffred

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