The Order will - NOT ? - be moving Headquarters

[caesian]

No: HPFGUIDX 97859

Caesian wrote (reformatted version):
 Now, I know I started this post by saying that clearly the Order *must* be=
 
 moving, but  after this thorough discussion, I must reconsider the point:

 Jim Ferer wrote:
 <snip> Grimmauld Place is completely "blown," and of no use whatsoever as =
a safe 
house.  Kreacher can't betray its location because of Fidelius, but conside=
r: here comes the 
house  elf bound to Grimmauld Place ratting out Sirius, the same Sirius tha=
t later becomes 
the  object of Voldemort's plot to lure Harry out of Hogwarts and the same =
Sirius that 
showed  up at the MoM /with/ the rest of the Order.

 later, Jim elaborates:
 <snip>The existence of the house was known, of course, by many people, not=
 least 
Narcissa Black Malfoy and Bellatrix Black Lestrange. That knowledge can't b=
e erased.

 Jim elaborates further:
 The Fidelius Charm means that nobody other than the Secret Keeper can divu=
lge the  
house's status. Does it also mean that no one can deduce its status from Kr=
eacher's  
appearance and revelations about Sirius Black? 

 
 Pippin joins in:
 Does the Secret Keeper spell prevent one not initiated from even thinking =
of the secret? It 
 certainly would increase its usefulness. 

 
 Caesian chips in (channeling JKR, *emphasis added*): (PoA The Marauder's M=
ap UK HB 
152)
  ... Well, of course, You-Know-Who wasn't an easy person to hide from.  Du=
mbledore told 
 them [the Potters] that their best chance was the Fidelius Charm."
 'How does that work? ... Professor Flitwick cleared his throat.
 'An *immensely complex* spell,' he said squeakily, 'involving the magical =
concealment of  
*a secret* inside a single, *living soul*.  The information is hidden insid=
e the chosen 
person, or Secret-Keeper, and is henceforth impossible to find - unless, of=
 course, the 
Secret-Keeper chooses to divulge it.  As long as the Secret-Keeper refused =
to speak, You-
Know-Who could search the village where Lily and James were staying for yea=
rs and never 
find them, *not even if he had his nose pressed against their sitting-room =
window!*'

 First, What *kind* of information, or secret, can be concealed in this way=
?  Obviously, not 
all information can be protected by this charm.  For example, I cannot keep=
  your gender  
secret from you in this way.  I probably cannot keep a secret that pertains=
  directly to you  
unless you are a participant in the creation of the charm - for example, Ro=
n can't decide to  
hide who Hermione really likes (the secret) from Hermione.  But, after the =
charm is 
performed by the participation of all parties, it may be true that the Secr=
et-Keeper then 
must tell the person to whom the secret refers - for example, perhaps Peter=
 had to tell Lily  
and James where they were hiding.  

 We know the precise wording of the Secret of Grimmauld Place, because Harr=
y  reads it -  
the concealed information is this (OotP, The Advance Gaurd US HB 58):'The h=
eadquarters 
of the Order of the Pheonix may be found at number twelve, Grimmauld Place,=
  London.'
 
What part of that complete sentence is *the secret*?  We know that the abil=
ity to see 
number twelve is linked to the Fidelius, at least for someone looking at it=
  for the first 
time:
 
 'Harry looked around at the houses again.  They were standing outside numb=
er eleven; he  
looked to the left and saw number ten; to the right, however, was number 13=

 .
 'But where's -?'
 'Think about what you've just memorized,' said Lupin quietly.
 Harry thought, and *no sooner* [my emphasis] had he reached the part about=
  number  
twelve, Grimmauld Place, than a battered door emerged out of nowhere betwee=
n numbers 
eleven and thirteen, ...

 Just knowing that there is an Order does not ensure that you will see Grim=
mauld Place 
("no sooner").  However, we also know that the knowldege of the  existence =
of the Order is 
not protected by this Fidelius Charm: OotP The Lost Prophecy US HB 831 'Vol=
demort knew 
already, of course, that Sirius was in the Order, that you knew where he wa=
s - but  
Kreacher's information made him realize that the one person whom you would =
go to any 
lengths to rescue was Sirius Black.'

Is it true then that the only information that is protected by this Fideliu=
s Charm is number  
twelve itself?  Or are both the people in the Order of the Pheonix and the =
house hidden?  It 
could be only the house, or it could be both.  Recall the comment of Profes=
sor Flitwick, 
that Voldemort would be unable to find Lily and James even if he had his no=
se pressed 
against their window.  That suggests to me that perhaps the people themselv=
es are hidden 
when they are in the Charmed location.
 
This is not inconsistent with Dumbledore's explanation: 'You see, Kreacher =
was not able to  
betray us totally.  He is not Secret-Keeper for the Order, he could not giv=
e the Malfoy's our  
whereabouts ...

But what about prior knowledge?  I believe there is a fuzzy area here, in t=
hat it is unclear  
whether Kreacher would have been able to reveal to the Malfoy's that *he* h=
ad just come  
from Grimmauld Place.  In other words, they were able to infer that he had =
come from  
where Sirius was, but did they necessarily know that meant Grimmauld Place?=
  Because a  
house elf is bound to the house as well as to the family, I would assume so=
.  We know 
from Harry's experience that the charm operates as a sort of block to the a=
bility to infer 
the concealed information, by literally hiding the house from view.  Whethe=
r this would 
 work if you had prior knowledge of the house is up for debate.
 
 
Pippin enjoins:
<snip> I have a hard time thinking that someone in the DE's wouldn't say "I=
 think we'd 
better check out the house Kreacher comes from. We'll destroy it and kill e=
veryone inside  
just to be safe."

 
 Mandy:
 <snip> I don't believe anyone can destroy a house that is under the Fedeal=
ius Charm 
unless they have the Secret from the secret keeper. So, hypothetically, Har=
ry could destroy 
Grimmauld Place but LV couldn't.

 
Pippin:
 <snip> I don't agree that the Fidelius Charm makes a house impervious – we=
 don't have 
any reason to believe it. The secret is safe, not the house, IMO, and Volde=
mort is not an 
"innocent until proven guilty" kind of guy. (!) (As an aside, that's why I'=
m convinced 
Voldemort would have killed both Harry and Neville if he hadn't lost his bo=
dy that night. 
Good enough for King Herod, good enough for Voldemort.)

 
 Caesian:
 It may be true that the house is impervious even to those with prior knowl=
edge - that it 
somehow, in an extension of being Unplottable, became Unknowable.  Or, perh=
aps there is 
some reason why it was not attacked yet - because of this plan to lure Harr=
y to the DoM,  
perhaps.

 However, I now think that Grimmauld Place was never attacked because the D=
Es might  
never have realized that anyone was at Grimmauld Place besides Kreacher and=
  Sirius.  
Dumbledore states: 'You see, Kreacher ... could not ... tell them any of th=
e Order's 
confidential plans that he had been forbidden to reveal.  He was bound by t=
he 
enchantments of his kind, which is to say that he could not disobey a direc=
t order from his  
master, Sirius.'  The information he was able to provide was about Harry an=
d Sirius's  
concern for one another, but did not directly indicate that Harry had ever =
been physically 
present at Grimmauld Place:  'Like the fact that the person Sirius cared mo=
st about in the  
world was you,' said Dumbledore quietly. 'Like the fact that you were comin=
g to regard 
Sirius as a mixture of father and brother.' (OotP The Lost Prophecy 831 US =
HB)

So, maybe they haven't figured it out yet, and maybe they never will.  Mayb=
e, even if they  
do, the house is hidden and cannot be attacked.  Therefore, while I *think*=
  they probably  
will and should be moving, it's also not perfectly clear that they must.  
 
 I don't mean to vacillate, I just don't want to give the impression that s=
omething is 
*known* when it may still be uncertain.  The essential information - what e=
xactly Kreacher 
did and did not reveal - is unknown to us.  Was he previously ordered by Si=
rius not to 
reveal that the Weasley's and Harry were coming after Arthur's attack (just=
  before he 
departed Grimmauld Place)?  Was he prevented from giving any information on=
  visitors to 
the house?  Was he prevented from repeating any conversations he may have o=
verheard - 
such as Harry's description of Arthur's attack? Remember how Kreacher's foo=
tsteps 
stopped outside the kitchen to listen just before he left the house the fir=
st time?

 
 Jim Ferrer continues:
 <snip>
 The need for secrecy for the Order is mostly over now, anyway. Fudge's obs=
truction 
doesn't matter anymore and everyone now knows who the enemy really is. The =
Order's  
headquarters can be Hogwarts now without much need for deception. They shou=
ld be at  
Hogwarts now, for their single most important mission now is the protection=
 of Harry  
Potter. The identities of the members should be kept as quiet as possible t=
o protect them  
and their families, although some will be inevitably outed and must go unde=
rground.

 
Pippin adds:
 All that said, I agree that Grimmauld Place has probably outlived its usef=
ulness, for 
literary if not practical reasons. But as a Safe House, a place where peopl=
e who are not 
supposed to be associated with the Order or each other can safely meet, Hog=
warts would 
be just as bad as Grimmauld Place. I think we will find out instead where D=
umbledore went 
in the  interval that he was absent from Hogwarts in Book Five.

I disagree that the Order's main task in Book Six will be to protect Harry.=
 Harry is the 
person who *least* needs protection from Voldemort. The Order's task will b=
e to expose  
Voldemort's agents and unite the wizarding world.

 
 
Caesian replies:
I also doubt the Order will come to Hogwarts, if only because it would be v=
ery dangerous 
for the non-combatant children who attend the school.  I also doubt Dumbled=
ore was 
*hiding* when he was away:
 
OotP The Centaur and the Sneak 622 US HB
 'Where will you go, Dumbledore?' whispered Professor McGonagall. 'Grimmaul=
d Place?'
 'Oh no,' said Dumbledore with a grim smile. 'I am not leaving to go into h=
iding.  Fudge 
will soon wish he'd never dislodged me from Hogwarts, I promise you...'

 OotP O.W.L.S. 711
 'Now, I haven't heard from Dumbledore lately!' she [Madam Marchbanks] adde=
d, peering  
around the hall as though hopeful he might suddenly emerge from a broom cup=
board. 'No  
idea where he is, I suppose?'
 'None at all,' said Umbridge ... 'But I daresay the Ministry of Magic will=
 track him down 
soon enough ...'
 'I doubt it,' shouted tiny Professor Marchbanks,' not if Dumbledore doesn'=
t  want to be 
found!' 

 OotP Out of the Fire 748
 'Dumbledore?' said Umbridge eagerly. 'You know where Dumbledore is then?'
 'Well ... no!' sobbed Hermione. 'We've tried the Leaky Cauldron in Diagon =
Alley and the  
Three Broomsticks and even the Hog's Head -'
'Idiot girl, Dumbledore won't be sitting in a pub when the whole Ministry's=
  looking for 
 him!' shouted Umbridge, disappointment etched in every sagging line of her=
 face.
 
 So, It's probably safe to say he was either in the broom cupboard, or the =
Hog's Head. ;)

And, obscure jokes about Snape's nursery aside, I really hope that the new =
location  
introduced in Book 6 will be Godric's Hollow.

 Caesian