Inaugural address and Mandy Croyance on Assumption

[arrowsmithbt]

No: HPFGUIDX 97950

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at q...> wrote:
> --- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "arrowsmithbt" 
> <arrowsmithbt at b...> wrote:
> 
> > A meritocracy has it's problems too. Who, on merit is best
> > fitted to 'lead' the WW? Probably Dumbledore. But he's refused
> > once already, condemning the WW to a weak, vacillating 
> > government. A  government cannot be strong if the most 
> > powerful person in society is outside it, no matter how 
> > benevolent that person may be. 
> > 

> Pippin:
> Whoa! Dumbledore was not outside the government. Besides 
> being one  Fudge's advisers  in the earlier days of his ministry, 
> he was also Supreme Mugwump  (or Chairman) of the 
> International Confed. of Wizards and Chief Warlock of the 
> Wizengamot (the Wizarding High Court).   He held those 
> positions until he was forced out by Fudge and his allies for 
> telling people something they didn't want to hear. And since they 
> didn't want to hear it, being Minister would have made no 
> difference.
>

Kneasy:
Considerations on power and the implications thereof.
Got involved in a thread on this last year, but  another trip
round the bay wouldn't go amiss.

We've never been told how those at the top of the tree in
the Ministry are chosen, though reading between the lines it
seems that an individual is offered the job based on some sort
of popular consensus. How that consensus is canvassed is not
revealed, but it seems that the feelings of the wizard in the
street do matter - witness Crouch Snr's fall from popularity.

DD was offered the top job and turned it down.
So  why was DD offered the job in the first place?

Well, there's his history of course; Grindelwald, forming the
Order in the first Voldy War -  obviously  a good egg. The 
well-being of the WW is high on his list of priorities - any
Dark Wizards on the prowl and DD's your man. And he's
powerful; the most powerful wizard in the world, by all
accounts. A compelling combination on his CV.

But he says no.

Consider the situation from the perspective of whoever is
appointed as Minister. He's second choice and he knows it.
He's always going to be looking over his shoulder; there's
someone out there that the general public regard more highly
and that person could become a focus for an opposition that 
could cause a lot of problems. 

There are a number of classic responses to this sort of situation,
but let's look at two obvious ones.

First, get him on side; demonstrate to the public that you have 
this persons support and good wishes. Hence the blizzards of
owls that Hagrid mentions.Publicly seek his advice and opinions,
"See? DD's been asked, he thinks this, so it must be OK. Yes?"
It'd be during this 'consult and cooperate' period that DD would
be honoured as Supreme Mugwump and Chief Warlock. Nice
titles but not exactly involved in everyday policy-making. In fact
an international body like like the ICoW is probably little more
than a talking shop - most international bodies seem to go that
way after a while.

Time passes, those at the centre of government become a bit 
more confident as DD shows a disinclination to interfere much
and generally keeps a low profile. But he's still powerful and
still exerts influence. Worryingly, he's starting to say things
that the Ministry policy-makers and their friends don't want to
hear.Time to implement the second stage - marginalisation. 
Consult him less and less and use the press in a not-so-subtle
 "he's past it" campaign. This intensifies when DD doesn't seem
to react until eventually they almost start to believe their own
propaganda and remove him from his posts. Not very clever, 
that. 'Cos DD is still the most powerful wizard in the world and
they could be heading for a fall.

There are a couple of interesting parallels from real world
English history:
Wellington. He was instrumental in defeating the greatest
threat of his time and for brokering the Treaty of Vienna, which
resulted in the longest period of general European peace in history, 
though there were scuffles between France and Germany. He was
immensely popular, of unbending rectitude (except with the 
ladies), didn't give a damn what anybody thought of him and was 
eventually brought into the government and became Prime Minister. 
This is the path DD didn't  take.

Now Cromwell. He was instrumental in defeating the threat to
the idea of 'Government by Consent'. After the battles were over
he intended to retire to the country, but remained immensely 
popular and influential. When the government proved untrustworthy
and tried to neutralise the only counter to it's corrupt ambitions, 
he came back and threw them out, taking over himself.
This is what the Ministry insiders feared from DD and may yet
happen, though it's not probable. 

At the end of OoP Fudge has to face up to some uncomfortable
truths; he's been living in his own little fantasy world, one where 
DD is a manageable irritation who can be subjected to the petty 
politicking of the Ministry without uncomfortable repercussions.
In reality DD is the 800 lb gorilla. He can sit wherever he damn 
well pleases. 

It's highly likely that no Minister could prosper without at least
the tacit approval of DD, even though he seems reluctant to get
too involved in Ministry affairs. He's still powerful, and Fudge
underestimated him. Too late now. Fudge is on the skids, the 
victim of his own blinkered self-regard.

Kneasy