Dumbledore's role in Sirius' death was Re: ESE!Snape (Was loads of other stuff)

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 98661

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "nkafkafi" 
<nkafkafi at y...> wrote:

> Neri:
> Yep, I completely agree with Alla here. Keeping Sirius in 12GP 
was  one of several glaring mistakes that DD did in OotP. To 
DD's credit,  this is a classic strategic mistake that many 
commanders fail to  avoid: they stick their troops into defensive 
positions that are  theoretically safer, but also prevent them from 
doing anything. This  invariably leads to deteriorating troop moral 
that often offsets the  defensive advantages.<

Pippin:
Hmmm...but Dumbledore's troops aren't regulars, are they? My 
impression was that nothing was keeping Sirius at 12GP but 
Dumbledore's advice and his own conviction that it was where 
he belonged. There was nothing to keep him from returning to 
his tropical refuge except that Harry might need him on short 
notice.

Neri:
> Sirius should have been in the streets during nights as 
Padfoot,  tracking DEs. <

Pippin:
Huh? How do you track someone who's apparating? We have it 
from the ministry forces at the QWC that it's impossible.

Neri:
>His superior senses of smell and hearing as a dog could 
 have been a great asset for the Order. I'd use him for spying on  
 Malfoy mansion, or as a secondary security screen around the 
MoM at  nights. He'd probably have noticed Nagini before she'd 
managed to get  into the MoM and attack Arthur.<

Pippin:
Erm, somehow I don't think Nagini (if it was she) glided down a 
London street, into a phone box, and dialed 62442 with her 
tongue <g>. 

As a matter of fact we don't know how she got in or out of the 
MoM. Maybe Malfoy transfigured possessed!Nagini into a grass 
snake, put her in his pocket, flooed to the Ministry, and when the 
coast was clear, transfigured her back again. Any other ideas?

At any rate, if the DE's can hide themselves from human spies, 
surely they can hide from doggie ones, especially since they 
know that one of Dumbledore's spies can be a dog. And hanging 
around the MoM would scarcely be a good idea for the most 
wanted wizard on the planet.
 
Neri:
> So the DEs knew about his cover as Padfoot. So what? They 
also most likely knew (or could have made a reasonable guess) 
that Arthur and  Lupin and Moody are working for DD, and this 
had not prevented DD  from using either three. <

Pippin:
None of them are wanted men. Arthur is protected by his 
popularity (see CoS) and Moody by his reputation --Voldemort 
could hardly expect to take him without a fight.

Most wizards are scared to death of werewolves even in human 
form; you'll notice no one took on Lupin at the Ministry. But all
that the DE's needed to do to finish or capture Sirius was to call 
the Dementors on him. All perfectly legal, just helping the 
ministry like good wizarding citizens should.

Dementors would have forced Sirius back into human 
form and then the DE's could have taken him hostage for real, or 
let the Dementors suck out his soul. Sirius is better off dead than 
that.

As for deteriorating morale, do you really think that's the reason 
Sirius died? Suppose that GoF!Sirius, as calm and sane as 
Sirius ever gets, had learned that Harry had been lured into a 
trap and a rescue party was needed. Do you think he wouldn't 
have done exactly what he did in OOP? 

Pippin