LV's Choice: Potters or Longbottoms or Both?

[karenoc1]

No: HPFGUIDX 99042

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Eustace_Scrubb" <dk59us at y...> 
wrote:<<snip>>
> We know that Voldemort knew enough of the prophecy that he was aware
> that a child born as the 7th month died to parents who had thrice
> defied him _could_ vanquish him.  Apparently he deduced that both
> Harry Potter and Neville Longbottom _could_ fit that description.
> 
> We know that he killed James and Lily Potter and marked Harry Potter
> as the one described in the prophecy, losing his body in the 
process.
>  Dumbledore tells Harry that Voldemort decided Harry "the half-blood
> like himself" was the more likely danger and that's why he went to
> Godric's Hollow.<<snip>>

Now karenoc1:
This is an interesting theory, but I'm having problems with the 
timing of the events.  I believe that we can assume that Voldemort 
found out about the prophecy *before* Harry and Neville were born.  
However, he does not attack the Potters until one year and three 
months *after* Harry and Neville are born.  The Potters (and possibly 
the Longbottoms) went into hiding as soon as Dumbledore learned that 
the prophecy had been overheard by someone loyal to Voldemort.  
(Isn't there a strong theory that Snape may have told Dumbledore that 
Voldemort was after the Potters and why?)  And then, Voldemort would 
have had to take the time to recruit a spy close to the Potters (and 
possibly a spy close to the Longbottoms) in order to find them and 
attack them.  But would that have taken over a year to accomplish?  
Voldemort had a lot of followers and spies at this point; he was at 
the peak of his power.  I believe he took time to consider which boy 
might be a greater threat to him and then decided on Harry and not 
Neville at all.  After he defeated the Potters, he (or one of his 
followers) could always take out the Longbottoms.  Also, Frank 
Longbottom was an Auror for the Ministry --wouldn't the Ministry have 
noticed if he were in hiding and not doing his job?

Eustace_Scrubb continues: <<snip>>
> We also know that Neville's parents were tortured to insanity by
> Bellatrix LeStrange and company sometime shortly after Godric's 
Hollow
> (how long after, though? days? weeks? I can't tell).  Allegedly this
> was done because the Death Eaters were frantic to find Voldemort in
> the wake of Godric's Hollow.<<snip>>

Actually, we do know that it was at least *months* after the failed 
AV curse before the LeStranges and company tortured the Longbottoms.  
Pettigrew blew up the street and escaped within days of Voldemort's 
attack on the Potters.  Sirius was sent to Azkaban without a trial.  
But later, the Ministry made great efforts to round up the rest of 
the DE's and the trials began.  First Karkaroff, then Ludo Bagman, 
and then later still, the Lestranges, Barty Crouch, Jr. (and another 
Death Eater, I just don't remember which one).  Remember in GoF how 
much older Crouch, Sr. looked with each progressing trial.  Yes, it 
could be stress, but I think it was due to stress over a period of 
time.  Naturally, Frank Longbottom would have been a target for a DE 
looking for Voldemort.  Frank was an Auror, and busy rounding up the 
likes of the Lestranges.  Dumbledore states on p. 603 of the 
Scholastic edition of Goblet of Fire:

"'The Longbottoms were very popular.... The attacks on them came 
after Voldemort's fall from power, just when everyone thought they 
were safe. ..."

I don't think anyone would have felt really safe until all of the 
initial DE trials had ended, and every perceived DE was in custody or 
had renounced Voldemort.  The Longbottom attack had to be some time 
after Voldemort was defeated, possibly even a year or more.

Eustace_Scrubb continues: <<snip>>
> Why did Bellatrix and the others believe that the Longbottoms would
> have any useful information?<<snip>>

Probably because Frank Longbottom was an Auror, a pretty informed 
line of work at the Ministry.  He was also an Auror with a family, 
with something to lose.  That would make him seem more vulnerable to 
a group of Death Eaters making their move against the Ministry.

But again, I think that the chronology of events must be considered 
carefully.  That way, we have more of a chance of piecing together 
the mysteries before us.

karenoc1