LV's Choice: Potters or Longbottoms or Both?

[Eustace_Scrubb]

No: HPFGUIDX 99059

karenoc1:
> This is an interesting theory, but I'm having problems with the 
> timing of the events.  

Eustace_Scrubb:
Yes, as usual, we don't know enough of the "when."

karenoc1:
> The Potters (and possibly > the Longbottoms) went into hiding as
soon > as Dumbledore learned that the prophecy had been overheard by
someone > loyal to Voldemort.

But didn't he know or suspect this during Trelawney's trance at the
Hog's Head?  He certainly knew that part of the prophecy had been
overheard by someone who was not trustworthy.  But he only told the
Potters to go into hiding when he heard (as you suggest, maybe from
Snape) that Voldemort was actually going to go after them...and
Dumbledore's informant may not have had the whole story (e.g., a spy
could tell Dumbledore that Voldemort is going to attack the Potters. 
That spy would not have to know why, for Dumbledore already believes
he knows why Voldemort would do that).

karenoc1:   
> Frank Longbottom was an Auror for the Ministry --wouldn't the   
> Ministry have noticed if he were in hiding and not doing his job?

Eustace_Scrubb:
Good point...perhaps Frank couldn't go into hiding at all. 

> 
> Eustace_Scrubb continues: <<snip>>
> > We also know that Neville's parents were tortured to insanity by
> > Bellatrix LeStrange and company sometime shortly after Godric's 
> Hollow
> > (how long after, though? days? weeks? I can't tell).  Allegedly
this
> > was done because the Death Eaters were frantic to find Voldemort
in
> > the wake of Godric's Hollow.<<snip>>
> 
> Actually, we do know that it was at least *months* after the failed 
> AV curse before the LeStranges and company tortured the
Longbottoms.  

karenoc1:
> Pettigrew blew up the street and escaped within days of Voldemort's 
> attack on the Potters.
<snip>
> But later, the Ministry made great efforts to round up the rest of 
> the DE's and the trials began.  First Karkaroff, then Ludo Bagman, 
> and then later still, the Lestranges, Barty Crouch, Jr. (and
another 
> Death Eater, I just don't remember which one).  Remember in GoF how 
> much older Crouch, Sr. looked with each progressing trial.  Yes, it 
> could be stress, but I think it was due to stress over a period of 
> time.<snip>

Eustace_Scrubb:
I agree that the trial of the LeStranges and Crouch Junior occurred
much later.  But they couldn't be tried until they were arrested and
we don't know how long that took.  As some of the more dangerous,
desperate and skilled DEs, they could have stayed at large for quite a
while.  But I don't think that necessarily means the attack for which
they were arrested also took place long after Godric's Hollow. (see
below)

karenoc1:
> Dumbledore states on p. 603 of the  Scholastic edition of Goblet of
>  > Fire:
> 
> "'The Longbottoms were very popular.... The attacks on them came 
> after Voldemort's fall from power, just when everyone thought they 
> were safe. ..."
> 
> I don't think anyone would have felt really safe until all of the 
> initial DE trials had ended, and every perceived DE was in custody
or 
> had renounced Voldemort.  The Longbottom attack had to be some time 
> after Voldemort was defeated, possibly even a year or more.

Eustace_Scrubb:
Well, although McGonagall disapproved, it appears that the majority of
the WW was celebrating by the time Harry was deposited on the
Dursleys' front steps.  Even Dumbledore says as he leaves Privet
Drive, "We may as well go and join the celebrations."  I think the
Longbottom attack occurred quite close to the events of Godric's
Hollow.  That attack may well have brought those who had "thought they
were safe" on November 1 back to their senses, at which point it
became clear that even with Voldemort gone, there was plenty of work
for the Aurors to do.

karenoc1:
> But again, I think that the chronology of events must be considered 
> carefully.  That way, we have more of a chance of piecing together 
> the mysteries before us.

Eustace_Scrubb:
Agreed!