Unreliable narrator - The Snape Timeline

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 117211


--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "nkafkafi" 
<nkafkafi at y...> wrote:
 Wouldn't these suspicions merit, just to be on the safe side, 
finding out where is Harry, alerting HQ to the developing 
situation, and increasing the alertness of the guard in the DoM? 
We are talking about a war, after all, There have been several 
attacks already, and secret agents are paid to be distrustful and 
guarded, even slightly paranoid.<
> 
> > Steve :
> > So what does Snape do? He goes to his office, makes a nice 
cup of tea, and sits back sipping it, savoring all the deliciously 
nasty things Umbridge is likely to do to Harry and friends, all the 
while thinking that the little brat deserves it for all the rules he 
breaks. Abouttime some one took him to task for this.
> > 
> 
> Neri:
> Where I served, an officer acting like this in such a situation 
would have been demoted to privet on the spot. <


Pippin:
I apologize for calling attention to a typo, and wish I could resist 
the image of ErringSoldier!Neri transfigured into a shrub <veg>

But this points up a relevant fact--nobody in the Order can be 
demoted to private, because AFAWK the Order has no  ranks. It's 
not an army, not even an army of spies. It's a band of irregulars. 
Its members owe allegiance to Dumbledore personally, not to a 
set of initials or a slot on a chart. The Order members are under 
no obligation to trust or obey Snape, and vice versa.

Of the five people at HQ that night, at least Moody and Sirius 
doubt Snape. Unless things have changed drastically since PoA, 
Snape deeply distrusts Lupin. Tonks and Shacklebolt are 
unknowns, but as you say, spies are slightly paranoid. 

Snape has heard from Umbridge that she caught Harry using 
her fire to communicate with someone, probably Grimmauld 
Place since Harry wouldn't know of another fire that would be 
secure on the other end. Having done this, Harry believes Sirius 
is being held. But when Snape himself contacts the Order he is 
told that Sirius is alive and well. Is this not ample reason for 
paranoid!Snape to believe something has gone wrong at HQ?

Snape must then communicate this to Dumbledore as secretly 
as possible, which may not be as instantly as possible. 

I have theorized that Snape normally communicates with 
Dumbledore by using the pensieve as a letter drop. His backup 
means of communication would logically be Dumbledore's 
deputy McGonagall, but she has taken an unexpected turn for the 
worse and been transferred suddenly (and suspiciously?) to St 
Mungo's. 

Snape has no reason to think Harry can get to the Ministry  or GP 
before Dumbledore returns to HQ. As far as we know there's no 
way to get from the forest to Hogsmeade without going back past 
the castle  or crossing the lake, so Snape would expect Harry to 
come back to the castle to use a fire, or to try to persuade Snape 
that he needs to find out about Sirius. Snape was no doubt 
happily anticipating making Harry sweat a bit before telling him 
Sirius was okay -- but then Harry didn't come back and Snape 
grew worried -- but not at once.

 Snape knows that under normal circumstances  there is nothing 
in the forest that would hurt a man armed with a crossbow, much 
less a fully qualified wizard who's defeated Voldemort four times 
running. 

  It's not full moon so there are no dangerous werewolves. The 
acromantula colony and Grawp are unknown to Snape.  The 
centaurs are attacking any adults they find  roaming the forest 
and would certainly not countenance the presence of Death 
Eaters (including Snape), while they   themselves have a policy 
of not attacking "foals." 

No doubt Snape wanted to wait for Dumbledore to return to HQ 
so that he could report directly, but when Harry still didn't return, 
concern that Harry might conceivably be on his way to the MoM 
outgrew his other reservations and he decided to risk contacting 
the Order, knowing that Dumbledore would soon be there. He 
specifically asked Sirius to personally inform Dumbledore about 
what had happened while he went to search the Forest.  Why 
would Snape have done that if he had a secure means of 
contacting Dumbledore himself?

Pippin