The Second Prophecy (digression)

[carolynwhite2]

No: HPFGUIDX 118073


--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "iris_ft" <iris_ft at y...> wrote:

> > --- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, Barry Arrowsmith 
> <arrowsmithbt at b...> wrote:
> > "One thing worth noticing is how the entire passage where Harry 
> relates Sybill's burblings to DD is constructed. > 
<snip>

Iris: 
> snip>
> We generally tend to consider the prophecies, and only the 
> prophecies; we barely consider "the way it's all presented". And 
> it's all presented according to Dumbledore. He is the one who 
> legitimates the prophecies, and who gives them their orientation. 
> Is he able to do it because he knew them even before Trelawney 
> pronounced their words?
> 
> He says in PoA: "The consequences of our actions are always so 
> complicated, so diverse, that predicting the future is a very 
> difficult business, indeed
"
> His action, the night he met with Trelawney at the Hog's Head, had 
> one consequence: Several months later, Voldemort went after the 
> Potter to kill their son. Was it unexpected?
> Or are we facing a long and patient manipulation?
> 
> I'm not meaning by this that Dumbledore is evil. I'm just supposing 
> he's an operator, working hard, on something even more important 
> than defeating Voldemort. Something like the transfiguration of the 
> wizard world, with Voldemort and Harry as instruments. Will he be 
> lucky enough to reach his goal?
> 

Carolyn:
I think you are right to be suspicious. There have been numerous 
ingenious explanations as to how the eavesdropper might have been 
ejected at precisely the right moment, three lines into the prophecy, 
but it does stretch the bounds of credulity.

The possibilities seem to be:
(1) DD knew in advance what she might predict, perhaps because she 
had already made the prophecy *before*, to someone else, and they 
thought DD should hear it. Knowing what she was going to say perhaps 
suggested to him the idea of 'arranging' an eavesdropper, to be 
evicted at just the right point by (?) his brother Aberforth. But 
dangerous knowledge for the other person to have kept all these years.

(2) There was no eavesdropper. He heard the prophecy by himself, and 
then ensured that someone gave Voldie a partial quote from it. For 
safety, that person would not be told the whole prophecy, because 
Voldie always knows when someone lies. 

DD may have given Snape this task, if he had already changed sides at 
this point, or perhaps Dumbledore chose Peter. DD would have been 
fully aware of Peter's weak character, and that he might be 
vulnerable to an approach by Voldy, and decided to use this to his 
advantage, although to Peter's ruin. Alternatively, Peter may have 
very bravely decided to act as a double agent at DD's request. Either 
way, if he performed this task, it led to his downfall later, when 
that fool Sirius made him secret keeper, and he was not strong enough 
to prevent Voldy extracting that secret from him.

But I think there is also another aspect to the prophecies, which 
sort of fits in with JKR's view that you make your own luck. I think 
the prophecies can only be acted on by the people they are made to, 
and that possibly they are somewhat time-dependent.

Dumbledore immediately made extensive and far-reaching plans based on 
the information that he heard, but then he is a very old and 
experienced wizard who spends his life considering alternative 
scenarios and strategies. 

Choosing to tell Harry about the first prophecy at the end of OOP is 
just another tactic, IMO to frighten Harry into behaving, and into 
thinking he has to acquire some amazing new range of skills in order 
to eventually kill Voldy. In fact, if you read the prophecy 
carefully, the key statement:

'either must die at the hand of the other for neither can live while 
the other survives'

is just that, a statement. It is not actually enjoining either party 
to get on with it and start killing, it is only Dumbledore that says 
that's what it means. It's not information that Harry (or Voldy) 
needs to act on, it was an information bulletin for Dumbledore alone 
to use as he saw fit. 

Harry, on the other hand, is just a boy. He didn't have any idea what 
Trelawny's second prophecy was about when he heard it, or even that 
she was making one. It is also extremely significant that just as he 
is about to tell Ron and Hermione about it (end of Chap 16, POA), his 
explanation is cut off by the news from Hagrid about Buckbeak. This 
is a well-worn device in the books to prevent people knowing useful 
facts just when they need them. Hermione, for one, would have 
immediately started to trying to work it out - and she's good at 
riddles and logic.

That second prophecy, in effect, went unused at the time it was most 
relevant. DD immediately started to turn it over in his mind as soon 
as he heard it, of course, but it was for Harry to act on (or not), 
and the moment has passed.

On this analysis, it does seem that he could ignore the second 
prophecy indefinitely if he likes. That would annoy Dumbledore, 
wouldn't it ?


Iris:
> Just my (confused) opinion, lost among many, many others,

Carolyn: 
Not the only one who is confused, but do not fear, your posts are 
never lost - I always look out for them <g>.