Occlumency questions/LV 's plans

[annemehr]

No: HPFGUIDX 114861


Warning: a heavy slog through canon ahead!

> Dungrollin:
> You appear to think that Dumbledore knew that LV realised Harry was 
> intruding into his mind just from how *Harry* changed.

Annemehr:
Well, yes, I admit I... well, I just took Dumbledore's word for it
(foolish as I am).

Having actually thought about it, I still believe it would have been
enough, whether or not Dumbledore also had other sources of information.

Dumbledore told Harry that he'd *seen* LV stir behind Harry's eyes
when they'd had close contact, and these were just the two and only
times Harry felt snaky urges against him. It must have been an obvious
signal to Dumbledore that something had changed, that LV was getting
to Harry.  A good general would, of course, seek confirmation through
other channels, though!  

Dungrollin:
  Well,
> I'll admit is a possibility.  But surely we can come up with 
> something more interesting...

Annemehr:
I thought Harry wanting to bite Dumbledore was interesting... :P

Dungrollin:
> I was more inclined to theorise about Snape and Dumbledore and the 
> Order and the spying on the DEs. All we get from the conversation at 
> St. Mungo's overheard on the old extendables is suspicions,
> nobody appears to know anything for certain.  In the first 
> Occlumency lesson Snape says `It seems so' in response to
> Harry's question about whether LV realised Harry was reading his 
> thoughts. Then (possibly to avoid answering any more questions) he 
> says `It is enough that we know' which sounds a lot more
> certain than previously.

Annemehr:
True. I would have no problem believing that Dumbledore had not yet
shared everything he knows, or feels nearly certain of, with the rest
of the Order by the time of that St. Mungo's visit, so I'm not sure if
their uncertainty is any reflection on Dumbledore's thoughts at that
time (and plot-wise, it gives Harry just a *little* information). 
Snape's repressive comment, and also Lupin's and Sirius' alarm when
they learned the lessons had stopped, seem to prove the Order
eventually did know what was at stake.

Dungrollin:
> 
> Dumbledore seems to have been waiting for this to happen (according 
> to Molly in St. Mungo's.  And we know all about this damn
> connection between Harry and LV in GoF.  So why on earth didn't
> he start with the Occlumency lessons in September?  Why wait until 
> after Christmas?  The decision to teach Harry Occlumency can't be
> a result of Dumbledore's suspicions after snake.vs.Weasly, because
> Dumbledore was already suspicious, and the Order take Dumbledore's
> suspicions seriously (Lupin: `Dumbledore's got a shrewd
> idea,' said Lupin, `and Dumbledore's shrewd ideas
> normally turn out to be accurate' – OotP, chapter 5.) What
> new piece of information made him realise that LV *knew* Harry was 
> seeing into his thoughts, and where did it come from?

Annemehr:
First, Lupin's remark. *Dumbledore's* got a shrewd idea of what LV is
planning -- not "we," but Dumbledore.  Are you as suspicious as I am
that Dumbledore is keeping a lot of things from the Order, and that
they are at least partly just following orders?  Do you think they
know what the prophecy actually says, for instance? On the other hand,
they have frequent meetings, and Snape gives detailed, important
reports of ...whatever he's doing (like you, I was hoping it wasn't
merely spying again).  I'm just wondering, if DD dies, how much
crucial info dies with him?

Most interesting is what Dumbledore knows about this scar connection,
and how.  This knowledge he has seems to be guiding his whole strategy
that year.  What's he said about it so far in the books?  It begins at
the very beginning:

PS/SS:
~Dumbledore says scars can be useful, and he wouldn't get rid of
Harry's even if he could.

CoS:
~If DD's not mistaken, LV gave Harry some of his powers when he gave
him the scar. He agrees with Harry's "Voldemort put a bit of himself
in me?"  

GoF:
~DD knows about Harry's dreams.
~DD explains to Fudge that he believes Harry's scar hurts him when LV
is near him, or when he feels a particularly strong surge of hatred.

OoP:
~Suddenly, the silent treatment.
~At the end, DD explains that he had guessed fifteen years before that
the scar was a sign of a connection between H and LV, that the scar
pains beginning in PS/SS confirmed it for him, and that LV would
eventually realise the connection and try to use it against Harry.
(OoP UK p728 & p 729)

So Dumbledore knew, or strongly suspected, a *lot* about that scar
connection from the very beginning. How does he know all this?  From
studying the AK survivors, the saved-by-mother's-ancient-magic
children, of the past?  According to everyone else, there aren't any!
 Dumbledore seems to imply it was part of the prophecy that was the
source of his knowledge: "[The eavesdropper] only heard the beginning,
the part foretelling the birth of a boy in July to parents who had
thrice defied Voldemort.  Consequently, he could not warn his master
that to attack you would be to risk transferring power to you, and
marking you as his equal. ..." -- OoP ch.37 (UK p. 743)  How did
Dumbledore come to that conclusion?  Would "mark him as his equal"
mean something to a wizard that we Muggles don't know about?

Now, what about the timing of what Dumbledore does and doesn't do?

I'm thinking, in hindsight, that the escape of Wormtail should have
signalled DD that it was time to start preparing Harry more -- tell
him the prophecy, and maybe begin Occlumency (not a ridiculous idea,
for a boy who'd just learned to conjure a serious Patronus).  The only
trouble was, it was the end of term.  He could have told him the
prophecy, I suppose, and then sent him to Privet Drive, but he may
have convinced himself to wait until next term.

The next term, of course, saw Harry dragged into the Triwizard
Tournament.  Did DD then drop any other plans (if he had any) in favor
of getting Harry through the TT alive first?  So, Harry did make it
through alive, just barely...

And now Voldemort is back, in his body, in Britain.  Dumbledore talks
to Harry that night for the last time in a long time.  Apparently,
this knowledge of the scar connection that DD has always seemed to
have is telling him that a reembodied LV means danger that LV will
begin to read Harry's thoughts -- it's mostly just a question of when.
 I guess DD had a choice between telling and teaching Harry things
right away, to prepare him, or keeping Harry in the dark and cut off
from DD himself, for Harry's safety.

We know what DD chose, and I suppose that *not* having Snape teach
Occlumency in September, which would have "opened [Harry's] mind even
further to Voldemort," (OoP UK p734) was part of that protecting-Harry
mode.  Occlumency lessons, before Harry managed to master the skill,
may have helped LV realise the connection even sooner than he did. 
Once LV had realised the connection, the plan changed and the lessons
were on.

I think.

Now I just want to know what's to stop Voldemort from sending a
hit-wizard in an invisibility cloak to Privet Drive to pick Harry off
with an AK?  'Cause I don't understand that blood protection thing at
all -- does the magic *know* whether an attacker is from Voldemort or not?

Annemehr