DD and the rat (was:Re: Minerva McGonagall-/Dumbledore)

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 115596


> HunterGreen:
> .. if Dumbledore knew about the switch and knew Peter was 
the secret- keeper, why did Voldemort find out? Why wouldn't 
Dumbledore guard Peter, or go to James and Lily and insist they 
changed the SK to him? Whatever happened because of it, 
Dumbledore did *not* want Voldemort going to the Potter's 
house. Even if he was willing to sacrifice James and
 Lily, the chances of Harry getting killed were too high.<
> 
> 
> Carolyn:
> All I hear here is extreme worries that Dumbledore might not 
be  as 'good' as you, and many others, want him to be. What I 
think is  closer to the truth is that he trusts almost no one, and is 
old  enough to have seen just about everything human nature is 
capable of,  including many shades of weakness and betrayal.
> 
> What canon says is, in the words of Fudge: 'DD..had a number 
of  useful spies..One of them tipped him off, and he alerted 
James & Lily  at once...told them that their best chance was the 
Fidelius Charm'. 
> What Sirius says is: 'I persuaded Lily & James to change to 
Peter at  the last moment'..
> 
> There is no canon to suggest that Peter went directly to 
Dumbledore,  and I think DD guessed what had happened after 
it was too late to  act. McGonagall says 'James Potter told 
Dumbledore that Black would  die rather than tell where they 
were...and yet, Dumbledore remained  worried.' Sirius and Lupin 
admit at the Shrieking Shack that they  suspected each other of 
being the spy that Dumbledore had detected in  their ranks.
> 
Pippin:
That isn't quite it, though. *James* and Sirius suspected Lupin of 
being the spy -- that was why they didn't tell him about the switch.  
But they did tell him that Sirius would be the secret keeper. This 
information was clearly *supposed* to get to Voldemort, via 
Lupin. 

Sirius was to go into hiding, in the hopes that Voldemort would 
be misled. Even if Sirius were captured, he could not betray the 
secret. Voldemort would only believe that Sirius was holding out.

But I think Lily, champion of the downtrodden,  wanted to prove to 
Lupin that she trusted him. She told him about the switch. Lupin, 
who IMO was indeed the spy, betrayed Peter to Voldemort, with 
the promise that Lily would be spared. Peter was captured, 
broken and marked, I would guess, a few hours before Godric's 
Hollow.

 Peter must have thought that Sirius was the spy after all...who 
else knew that he, Peter, had been the secret keeper? But that 
information is Peter's death warrant --Traitor!Sirius can't afford to 
let Peter live.  Peter must have made his plans quickly.   He'd let 
Sirius draw, shout out "Lily and James, how could you?" and turn 
himself into a rat, leaving a severed finger behind to show that 
he had died in the explosion. Possibly he had a Filibuster 
Firework behind his back, not a wand.  If all went well, 
Traitor!Sirius would be blamed for the deaths of the Potters as 
he deserved to be.

But then Peter learned that  there was evidence that Sirius  was 
planning to reveal himself on the occasion of the Potters' deaths. 
This made no sense to Peter, and neither did the deaths of the 
Muggles. A Filibuster Firework wouldn't have done that. And why 
do the secret keeper switch if Sirius was going to out himself 
anyway?  Perhaps Lupin tried to kill him and the missed AK blew 
up the street, and killed those Muggles. Maybe they're *all* spies.

Peter had no intention of returning to Voldemort, but he couldn't 
disappear altogether either. Sirius was safe in Azkaban, but  
Peter couldn't  be sure his charade had convinced Lupin. Let the 
Dark Lord grow strong enough to protect his allies once more, 
and Peter will be toast. So Peter ensconced himself at the 
Weasleys, there to await developments. That way he would know 
if the Dark Lord showed signs of stirring again, without the 
danger of hiding among Death Eaters.

But when Lupin and Sirius forced Peter out of hiding, he had no 
choice but to turn to the Dark Lord for protection from his old 
friends. This answers another question; why, now that Peter has 
lent Voldemort a hand, is  the Dark Lord still keeping him 
around? Surely he's more liability than asset...unless the Dark 
Lord needs Peter as blackmail material to keep Lupin in line.  

This fits very nicely with Peter's protestations, and the questions 
he can't  or isn't allowed to answer about why he went into hiding 
after GH. It makes sense out of Fudge's account and 
Dumbledore's belief that Sirius must be guilty. 

I don't think there was any way Dumbledore knew about the rat.  
Even if Dumbledore went to Azkaban and interviewed Sirius, 
would Sirius have revealed that he, James and Peter were 
animagi if he thought it would get Lupin in trouble?

Pippin