Re [HPforGrownups] Umbridge was:(Umbridge,Quidditch, and the Wizarding World

[Vivamus]

No: HPFGUIDX 116498


> Juli:
> 
> I've never actually thought about it... But the MoM is
> having some serious problems, probably Umbridge will
> soon be fired (for sadist detentions, etc.), so what
> could she possibly do for DD? I don't think DD saved
> her from the centaurs just to ger a life-debt, he's
> just a nice guy and would never intentionally kill
> anyone (thinking about the LV vs DD fight in MoM). Or
> maybe he thinks she'll play some future roll.

Fired?  I thought she would be more likely sent to Azkaban.   Hmm, thinking
it through, you may be right.

Umbridge committed several crimes, and talked openly about defying the
Minister of Magic.  She did not quite execute the Cruciatus Curse on a
student, but was clearly intending to do so, and made the comment that what
Fudge doesn't know won't hurt him (I know, she didn't actually do it, but in
terms of embarrassing a politician, it doesn't matter.)   She DID admit in
front of a number of witnesses that she ordered Dementors to attack (and, I
assume, deliver the Kiss to) Harry over the previous summer.   That isn't
just an abuse of power, it is a significant crime.

While bureaucrats and politicians may find justifications for all sorts of
abuses of power, I suspect they only support each other in the same when the
abuses do not hurt themselves.  Umbridge's actions were at best a serious
embarrassment to Fudge, and he seems the consummate politician, does he not?
The disaster that resulted from her leadership at Hogwarts cannot be
rectified by the "success" of her DADA class.    Fudge has created a PR
disaster for himself in his trying to frame DD, and I would be astonished if
he does not immediately cut his losses by dumping all association with
Umbridge as quickly as possible.

Let's see, what would provide the least damage for Fudge?  Not sending her
to Azkaban, that would result in too much attention.  She *could* be sent to
Azkaban for sure, but that also might make things worse for Fudge's position
in the polls, rather than better.

He certainly won't leave her in power.   The most common way today to deal
with embarrassments like her is to force them to retire immediately.  They
still keep their pension, which keeps them from making further trouble, and
they are no longer a problem.  If Fudge weren't in hot water himself, I'd
say that is what he would do -- but it doesn't help him.

I suspect she is going to be sacked, publicly humiliated, and lose her
pension.  That way, she becomes the scapegoat for Fudge's idiocy as well as
her own.   Fudge shows mercy by NOT sending her to Azkaban, but shows
fortitude by otherwise being as nasty as possible.  

The real question for me, though, is "what will she do then?"  Personally, I
think she will be recruited by V.  She will have nothing to lose, and as
former second in command of the MOM, she will know *all* the ins and outs of
the MOM, so she will be an invaluable asset to V.  She certainly has the
right mind-set to become a DE. 

Vivamus