Fudge & Umbridge believing in Voldy's return

[Bex]

No: HPFGUIDX 112315

Kim:
> I've been a luker on the board for a few years now. 

Yb:
Well, good to hear from you!

Kim:
> Something about OOTP has been bugging me for ages and I don't know 
> if it's been discussed before. 
>
> If Umbridge doesn't believe LV is back, why would she insist that 
> Harry knows where Sirius is? (Especially that whole scene with the 
> Veritserum) Is Umbridge dumb enough to think that Harry would be 
> speaking to Sirius--someone who was trying to kill him and 
> betrayed his parents?

Yb:
It was my interpretation of Umby (I give all the black hats funny 
nicknames. It's fun to laugh at them.) that she /does/ believe LV is 
back. The whole "I will not tell lies" bit, basically forcing 
this "LV has not returned" BS down the students' throats, says that 
she knows, but the important thing is not to let anyone else know. 
Fudge knows as well, and he chooses to hide it from the general 
public, but he knows Harry isn't barking mad. He just wants the WW 
to think everything is OK. At first, he probably didn't want to 
believe it, but after a few talks with DD, he sees the light. 
Unfortunately, the DP has painted Harry as a nutter, and has 
probably had some words in about this LV nonsense, and to admit the 
truth publicly would force him to eat a huge heap of crow (like the 
last DP we saw in OotP), and some major egg on his face (probably 
why he won't be MoM for much longer).

Kim:
> Yes, I know that deep down Umbridge and Fudge know that Dumbledore
> is right and that LV has returned. But how many people (outside 
> the Order) know the truth about Sirius, Peter and the whole secret-
> keeper thing? In order to believe that Harry and Sirius are in 
> cahoots, you have to know the whole Sirius story, the whole POA 
> story. 

Yb:
Not many, from what I can tell. Sirius is still a wanted man, 
obviously, since he can't go out in public. The DP reports "He's 
been spotted!" as if he's still a fugitive. I don't know if this is 
a bit of a cover-up or not. I don't think you need to know the whole 
Secret-Keeper-Switch, though.

Kim:
> Did Dumbledore tell Fudge the truth (everything about Sirius, the 
> time turner, etc) between POA and GOF? Or was that part of what 
> Dumbledore was explaining to Fudge at the end of GOF? During 
> Harry's hearing, Fudge bumbles on about "are you going to
> tell me some story involving a time turner, etc..." (sorry I don't 
> have my book in front of me.) Seems like Fudge has heard the real 
> story, but chooses not to believe any of it. 

Yb:
GoF? Don't you mean OotP?
And the Fudge quote is (not from the hearing, but from the 
interrogation of Harry and Marietta regarding the DA):
"Go on, then, Dumbledore, go on -- Willy Widdershins was lying, was 
he? Or was it Potter's identical twin in the Hog's Head that day? Or 
is there the usual simple explanation involving a reversal of time, 
a dead man coming back to life, and a couple of invisible dementors?"

Absolutely awful, what an IG-NOR-A-MOOSE that lime-green-bowler man 
is!
All right... Fudge has obviously heard the truth about Sirius and 
Peter, even the time-turner (if the TT incident he is referring to 
is the one in PoA). He clearly thinks (and even says) this is a cock-
and-bull theory if he ever heard one. But remember what /Professor/ 
Snape said in the infirmary at the end of PoA: The kids were under a 
Confunus Charm, Sirius had them believing he was innocent, blah, 
blah, blah. Fudge probably bought this one a little better than DD's 
version. (To be honest, I would, too.)

So back to the Umby remarks above:
Well, Fudge knew the kids were in company of Sirius for quite a 
while, and Sirius didn't kill Harry, so he /can't/ be after Harry, 
or else Harry wouldn't have survived the encounter. Thus Fudge 
thinks Sirius has other plans, and the Potter boy believes the "I'm 
innocent" line. Flash forward to OotP. The Azkaban breakout shows 
what Fudge thinks: he's sure that Black's goal wasn't to get Harry, 
but to get the DE's back in order. He probably thinks Sirius using 
Harry somehow,and the fact that Harry will not listen to reason 
about Sirius is more evidence that the scar has messed his head up.

Thus, he tells Umby that Sirius is still a criminal, but that Harry 
is talking to him occasionally, and thinks he's innocent. Hence the 
Veritaserum incident: Umby wants to know where Sirius is so he can 
be caught, and the Ministry looks good again, having caught the 
worst criminal in recent history. I don't know if Fudge has "seen 
the light" about Sirius and Peter as of before the battle in the 
MoM. He clearly hasn't by the time DD leaves the school: I doubt 
he'd be so willing to shoot his mouth off about the whole batty 
story if he believed a word of it. Umby probably doesn't know 
anything more than what we heard Fudge say at the Three Broomsticks 
in PoA. She, of course, may have heard the story. Perhaps Fudge had 
too much to drink (a little heavy on the red currant, perhaps?) and 
started talking about "crazy old Albus" and his hare-brained 
explanation for a laugh. I don't think she knows the story, though.

Kim:
> But if you didn't want anyone to know that LV has returned, 
> wouldn't you keep your paranoia to yourself? It's one thing to say 
> that DD is old and off his rocker, but I wouldn't go around saying 
> that Harry is crazy and that he's communicating with Sirius Black.

Yb:
I don't think he /is/ telling anyone Harry is communicating with 
Sirius Black. Think of the implications: Harry is a hero to the WW, 
and the public finds out that he's hanging out with a mass murderer. 
Half the people would think Fudge was nuts, saying things like that 
about the Boy Who Lived. Half would demand that Harry be put on 
trial to find out where Black is. 

After a couple weeks of mass confusion and hysteria, though, things 
would change. People would start wondering. Of course, the whole 
Sirius-Potter-betrayal isn't widely known, but it was believed that 
Sirius was a DE, second-in-command to Voldemort. So he'd probably 
not be friends with Harry, right? After all, Harry is the reason 
Voldemort fell. Naturally, a DE would want to kill Harry, especially 
one as ruthless and bloodthirsty as the infamous Black. So why is 
Harry communicating with Black now? And why has he turned him in?
I see the public being split into 4 groups, each with their own 
answer to this question. 

1) Harry is becoming the next Dark Lord. (The ones who believe this 
panic.)

2) Harry is insane. (Doesn't explain why Sirius is talking to him.)

3) Harry isn't talking to Black at all. The Ministry is lying to us.
(Growing amount of distrust and disbelief of the Ministry eventually 
leads to the Minister being thrown out, or a complete overthrow. 
Fudge, being his paranoid self, and loving his job, would 
immediately think of this one, and do anything he could to keep it 
from happening.)

4) Maybe there's more to the story. (These folks start a Yahoo 
group. They discuss it amongst themselves for a few weeks, and they 
start an underground newsletter, Eventually they select a 
representative with bodyguards to interview Harry. The interview 
goes without a death, and suddenly, questions are answered. The 
group starts collecting a following, and as word spreads, the people 
begin to lose faith in the Ministry, see #3. Pretty soon, the 
Ministry, Fudge, and the DP are disgraced, and the WW is well aware 
of LV's return. By the time he has organized his 100 or so little 
minions, Harry and DD have thousands on the lookout for him. Thus 
Voldemort is handed a considerable setback, Harry has plenty of 
support, and Fudge is reduced to collecting change in his lime-green 
bowler on the street.)

Thus, telling the world that Sirius is communicating with Harry is a 
BAD idea.

Kim:
> The MoM behavior in OOTP has always baffled me. If you're Fudge,
> you can't go around telling your employees, "uh, well, we have 
> good reason to believe that Sirius isn't a death eater and that 
> he's communicating with Harry Potter, but let's try to suppress it 
> all and keep it hush-hush. Oh yeah, let's not forget that Harry 
> Potter is also deranged." That just doesn't compute. 

Yb:
Nope, which is why I suggested the theory abov. Fudge doesn't tell 
anyone that Sirius is believed innocent, since he doesn't believe it 
himself, and he doesn't say a word to anyone except Miss Senior-
Undersecretary-to-the-Minister Umby that Harry and DD think Black is 
innocent, blah blah, be on the watch for him, keep an eye on the 
Floo, blah blah. Maybe she didn't even hear it from Fudge. Maybe she 
realized who Harry was talking to in the fireplace earlier in the 
year, and just came up with the plan herself. But I don't think 
she's that smart, really.

Kim:
> Granted, Fudge and Umbridge do a good deal of BSing during Harry's 
> 5th year, because they're silly, ignorant gits. Umbridge's quest 
> to make Harry's life miserable shouldn't really make sense to the 
> Wizarding World and Hogwarts students considering they don't know 
> the real story. Yes, I know DD spoke at the end of term feast, but 
> it doesn't seem to get through to anyone, or shall I say that no 
> one has put all the pieces together.

Yb:
Actually, Umby shot herself in the foot in this one. The kids (and 
their parents) may not have believed DD at the end of GoF, but 
suddenly a *Ministry* official in the school is flat-out calling 
Harry *and* DD liars. Surely someone noticed the scars on Harry's 
hand after a detention a detention session with her? Wouldn't they 
ask some questions? And Harry insists on disrupting the class, and 
Umby *insists* on shutting him up. Wouldn't that make an interesting 
owl home: 
"Dear Mum and Dad,
You won't believe what Prof. Umbridge said.She said that Cedric 
Diggory, that 7th year who died last year, died in a tragic 
accident. Potter still thinks it was You-Know-Who (I know I'm not 
supposed to say that, but he does.) She still doesn't let us use 
magic in class, but she keeps saying "that's a lie, this is a lie" 
and all that. Why does she keep saying that? She keeps harping on 
the "he's lying" bit, maybe Dumbledore was right in June of last 
year, at the feast. Maybe You-Know-Who has come back. Do you think 
Dumbledore is crazy?"

The students are certain to realize (at least the ones in Harry's 
class are) that this constant "this is a lie, all lies, all of it" 
bit is a serious case of denial. That's probably why so many of them 
from that class joined the DA. Umby is forcing stuff down their 
throats so fast they don't swallow it all.

Kim:
> And of course there's the Daily Prophet. As a journalist myself, I 
> can't say enough about how crappy that paper is. 

Yb:
Agreed. The Quibbler is more entertaining anyway. Sorry to keep 
referring to the DP in this post, but it's the only window we have 
into the Ministry and its policies.

> Kim
> -who's next question will revolve around how several MoM officials 
> don't appear to be good wizards. (Umbridge being unable to do 
> spells to get rid of F&G pranks, Fudge not knowing if Squibs can 
> see dementors, etc...)

Yb:
Can't wait to read it. I can write Fudge off, being ignorant as 
usual, since he obviously wouldn't have associated with /that/ sort 
of crowd. And of course, not many Squibs would be in contact with 
dementors, would they? I think that the Ministry, being a 
governmental body, is more political than magical. The people in 
there are politicians, at least the higher-ups and public figures. 
The ones who can actually *do* magic, like Arthur, Dawlish and 
(presumably) Bode get put in positions where they can use it. 
Wizards who are hopeless at magic get put in areas where they won't 
need it, like Umby. Interestingly enough, Fudge is probably a 
talented wizard. He was Junior Minister in the Department of Magical 
Catastrophes when the Potters were killed, and he was one of the 
first on the scene when Sirius was arrested, which implies that the 
DoMC is dispatched to clean up any messes, and maybe take care of 
Muggle memories in an emergency. So he was probably at least 
reasonably skilled.

~Yb, spending far to much time analyzing Fudgie