Conspiracies and re-assessments

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 112595

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "nkafkafi" <nkafkafi at y...> wrote:
> Carol wrote:
> <snip some good arguments> 
> Whether Voldemort had suspicions regarding Snape's loyalty after the
> > events in SS/PS is another question, one that I haven't resolved to 
> my
> > own satisfaction, but I'll bet every knut in my possession that he
> > doesn't know that Snape got off after Godric's Hollow because of
> > Dumbledore's testimony that "he's now no more a Death Eater than I 
> am."
> 
> Neri:
> 
> I'm afraid it's not that easy. 200 Wizards, most of them probably 
> from the Ministry, know about it, and it never leaked? Not even to 
> Lucius Malfoy, Fudge's good chum? As somebody who reads the papers I 
> have difficulties believing this, and we didn't see much indication 
> that the average WW bureaucrat is more closed-mouth than his RL 
> equivalent.
> 
> Also, when Harry names the DEs in the end of GoF, Fudge tells him 
> that he could have simply found the names in old records of the 
> trials. This seems to imply that records of these trials are 
> generally open to the public.
> 
> Also, Crouch Sr. knew about Snape changing sides, and in GoF Crouch 
> had spent several months under Voldy's  Imperius curse. I remind you 
> that this is the same Voldy who had just milked Bertha's mind to the 
> last drop. Comparing to Bertha, Crouch is a gold mine of information 
> about the Ministry. Would you believe that Voldy didn't mine it for 
> all its worth?
> 
> In fact, I think I'll take your bet, and then raise you one knut...
> 
> Neri

Carol responds:
I would still argue that Snape's hearing isn't common knowledge or the
parents would strenuously object to his teaching at Hogwarts and that
Malfoy, if he knows about it, attributes Snape's ability to get
himself cleared of charges to a remarkable instance of Slytherin
cunning. And again, Sirius didn't know that Snape was a DE. Evidently
he had no contact with MWPP or any members of the Order other than
Dumbledore (and Moody as witness to Karkaroff's hearing) between his
last year at Hogwarts and Lupin's return to Hogwarts as the DADA
teacher. As for Voldemort, he wasn't concerned about Snape or about
mining Crouch for information. He was only concerned about getting
Barty Jr. into Hogwarts and getting Harry to win the tournament.

I do think that Voldemort has some pretty solid ground for doubts
about Snape's loyalty, fed, maybe, by info sent by eagle owl from
Barty Jr. while he was disguised as Moody, but I don't think he
absolutely *knows* where Snape stands, and he evidently finds Snape's
connection with Malfoy useful or Snape would be dead by now. (Malfoy
has shown no sign whatever of doubting Snape, but who knows what
slippery Lucius thinks?)

I do think that Snape is walking on the edge of a knife and will need
every ounce of cunning he possesses to survive to the end of the
series. In fact, I'd be worried that he wouldn't survive HPB if JKR
hadn't told us he has an important role to play in Book 7.

Carol, who is still holding on to her few precious knuts