Conspiracies and re-assessments

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 113034

I snipped it, but we were discussing who knew that Snape was a DE.

> Pippin wrote:
> If the staff knew, then Lupin would know. If Lupin knew, he would 
> have told Sirius. ("You are not Sirius's only correspondent") 

Neri:
When DD said that he meant himself. We don't know that Sirius was in 
correspondence with Lupin also. Even if he was, I can easily imagine 
Lupin "forgetting" to mention this little detail, so Sirius won't be 
too worried about Harry and do something rush. I somehow think of 
Lupin as similar to Hermione in this regard. He'd keep secrets from 
his best friends if he thinks it wouldn't be for their own good to 
know them at the moment.

It is also possible that the regular stuff didn't tell Lupin for 
similar reasons, or that some of the stuff really didn't know (I'm 
pretty sure McGonagall did) but that doesn't change the fact that at 
least 200 wizards (and everybody they told) did know about it.

Also, note that after the Pensieve scene in GoF, DD asked Harry not 
to tell about Neville's parents (probably only out of consideration 
for Neville's feelings, as this "secret" also wasn't much of secret) 
BUT he never told him not to mention that Snape is an ex-DE who 
changed sides and spied after LV. DD doesn't even look bothered when 
he finds that Harry learned it. It really doesn't look like it is 
that much of a secret.

> Pippin:
> The 
> whole premise of the books is that secrets can be kept against 
> quite improbable odds. Much irony would be lost if this only 
> applied to secrets that wizards keep from Muggles.

Neri:
This premise works for the relations between wizards and muggles but 
not within the WW. I don't remember any clear example of a secret 
that is kept against improbable odds within the WW. Yes, there are 
many secrets, for example the Marauders keeping being Animagi a 
secret from DD and everyone else. But the Marauders didn't tell 200 
other wizards about it and then expected to continue keeping it a 
secret from DD and the rest of the WW.
 
> Pippin:
> In your Hog's Head post, you ask why Dumbledore would have 
> refrained from punishing Lucius Malfoy if he didn't have some 
> ulterior motive for making sure Malfoy walked free. But 
> Dumbledore believes that he should not punish people until they 
> have been proven guilty. That has to apply to people he suspects 
> are guilty, or it doesn't apply to anyone. Without the Diary, there 
> was no proof that Malfoy had acted of his own will--he could have 
> been bewitched just as Ginny was.

Neri:
DD looked into Kreacher's mind to find the truth, and probably 
consider it proof enough for himself, if not for any official court. 
He knew enough about Lucius to continue the investigation in other 
ways. If Lucius is bewitched it is certainly important to know how 
and by whom. Lucius was clearly the head of the pro-Voldemort faction 
and he was working against DD. Other governors told DD that Lucius 
had threatened them and their families. It just seems odd that DD 
does nothing about Lucius Malfoy. You can explain it away, I'm sure, 
but when you connect it with much more circumstantial evidence I 
mentioned in that post, it strongly suggests that DD was investing in 
a Snape-Malfoy connection.  

Neri