Conspiracies and re-assessments

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 113117

I (Carol) wrote:
> > I would still argue that Snape's hearing isn't common knowledge or
the parents would strenuously object to his teaching at Hogwarts and 
that Malfoy, if he knows about it, attributes Snape's ability to get
himself cleared of charges to a remarkable instance of Slytherin
cunning. And again, Sirius didn't know that Snape was a DE. <snip>
> 
> 
> Neri:
> Carol, you can find a theory of mine that attempts to explain some 
> of these mysteries in:
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Hogs_Head/message/2772
> 
> I think the secret of Snape being a past DE is similar to Lupin's 
> lycanthropy. The parents don't know about it (they are always the 
> last to know about things like that) but the staff do, and those who 
> make it their business to know such things probably also know about 
> it. Fudge implies in GoF that he knew about Lupin's lycanthropy from 
> the beginning and didn't like it one bit, but let DD carry on.
> 
> This comparison just got me thinking that Snape should really be 
> grateful that Lupin isn't the vindictive sort. Somehow I'm pretty 
> sure that Lupin won't let slip, over breakfast with some parents of 
> Hogwarts students, that Snape was a DE.
> 
> Neri

Hi, Neri. 

Thanks for the link to your Hog's Head post. (I'd forgotten the group
existed. I guess I never felt that I fit in there--more at home on
this list.) I was going to respond offlist but since it starting
turning into a book (as my posts tend to do), I decided to respond
here instead.

I agree on some points: Snape didn't turn in any DEs, he wasn't at the
graveyard, and he's on good terms with Lucius Malfoy. I agree that the
sudden movement in GoF is significant and that it doesn't relate to
ESE!Fudge (whom I don't believe in--Ever So Weak Fudge, yes) and
certainly doesn't mean that Snape is surprised to find that Lucius is
a DE. But I don't think that DD would have Snape tell such a huge lie
(informing the Court, or rather Barty Crouch Sr., that all the DEs
Harry named were Imperio'd) because it's against DD's principles and
would create very serious problems for Snape if it was ever disproved.

I think these DEs got off on their own with the Imperio excuse
*before* Snape was brought in, and I imagine they thought that he got
off the same way they did. I don't think they bothered to check the
public record to discover that their names were on it and his was not.
Or maybe they knew that Snape was already teaching for Dumbledore
before Godric's Hollow (as I think he was but can't yet prove) and
assume that he fooled Dumbledore into thinking he was innocent while
he was actually (they think) spying for Voldemort. Either way, he'd
have acted on Slytherin-style "principles" that they understood and
approved of. But of course the truth is as DD stated it in the
Pensieve; Snape was spying for *him* before Voldemort's fall (and may
have been teaching for him as well).

My hypothesis is a lot simpler than yours and doesn't depend on
Dumbledore (JKR's epitome of goodness) requiring Snape to lie. it als
has no potential damaging consequences to either DD's or Snape's
credibility, both of which would be ruined if the names of the DEs
arrested in the MoM incident got out.

Granted, it doesn't explain why the DEs think Karkaroff betrayed them
when according to the Pensieve, he only betrayed Rookwood (of course,
he *would* have betrayed the others if they weren't already arrested
or dead), but that has nothing to do with Snape. It just shows that
they have no reason to suspect Snape of betraying them or of *really*
being on Dumbledore's side despite the fact that he's been teaching at
Hogwarts for fourteen years. They just think (IMO) that he's a subtle
Slytherin who pulled the wool over old Dumbledore's eyes. (I also
think that Lucius has a rather condescending fondness for Severus,
whom he as a sixth or seventh year student allowed to join his gang at
age eleven because of his precocity--my explanation for Sirius Black's
"lapdog" taunt, but I'm not arguing for that here.)

Regarding Snape's sudden movement: Does Snape actually regard Lucius
Malfoy as his friend and not want him to get caught? Or did he at
least feel a momentary twinge of guilt for not being on the same side
as his old friend? I really don't know. And I don't know why
Dumbledore hasn't exposed Malfoy as a DE and an accessory to the crime
of petrifying the Muggleborns. Maybe he *is* protecting Snape from
whatever revenge the DEs might derive by revealing his past if DD
exposed Malfoy, but that seems a bit far-fetched to me. (Yes, of
course, he's protecting Snape by preserving his cover, but would that
protection extend to letting Malfoy get away with attempted murder? I
think there must be some other explanation.)

Oh, well. More questions than answers as always. But I still don't
think that DD made Snape lie. My version (my third paragraph) is
simpler and I think more logical. Certainly it doesn't require any
additional plot line in Book 6 or 7 to accommodate and has no dire
consequences if discovered. So as b_boy (Steve) always says, that's my
story and I'm sticking to it.

Hope you were anticipating a lengthy response when you invited me to
read that post!

Carol