Re: Dumbledore’s flawed plan

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 136025

Eggplant wrote:
> But it's clear that Dumbledore did not know about that Unbreakable vow: 
> 
> Draco said " He [Snape] hasn't been doing your orders, he promised
my mother_"
> Dumbledore replied "Of course that is what he would tell you Draco,
but_"
> 
><snip>

Carol responds:
As other posters have pointed out, Dumbledore is interrupted and we
don't know what would have followed his "but--." It could easily be,
"Of course that is what he would tell you, Draco, but he was also
following my orders." Almost certainly Snape was doing both, playing
both sides as he does in the conversation with Draco (note that he has
"helped" Draco by putting Crabbe and Goyle in detention). We really
don't clearly know where snape stands, any more than we know exactly
where he stands in "Spinner's End."

What we do know is that *Harry* has told Dumbledore that Snape made an
Unbreakable Vow. We can't doubt that DD knows what an Unbreakable Vow
means, and if he cares about and depends on Snape, as we know he does,
he is going to be concerned about such a terrible situation and
investigate it. Either Snape has lied to Draco, a tactic DD would wish
to question, or Snape has placed himself in a perilous position--and
DD does not want Severus Snape, the man who saved him from the ring
Horcrux, dead. He will also want to know, if he has not already
guessed it, what the vow involves. This is assuming, of course, that
Snape has not already told Harry exactly the same story, a possibility
Harry silently concedes based on Dumbledore's calm reaction.

Dumbledore states that he has known from the outset that Draco is
trying to kill him, that the necklace and poisoned mead were intended
for him, and that he has ordered Snape to talk to Draco. There can be
no doubt that these words are true. He also knows that Snape has told
Draco about the Unbreakable Vow, getting no gratitude for this
sacrifice from the disrespectful and self-obsessed boy. (Possibly
Draco doesn't know what an Unbreakable Vow entails, and surely his
statement that Snape is only trying to rob him of his "glory" suggests
that he doesn't fully understand the risk that Snape has taken for his
sake.

In any case, it's important to look closely at Dumbledore's words when
Harry tells him about the confrontation between Snape and Draco: "'. .
. I understood everything you told me, Harry,' said Dumbledore, a
little sharply. 'I think you might even consider the possibility that
I understood more than you did'" (HBP Am. ed. 359). These words
suggest that Dumbledore knows exactly what's going on, including all
three provisions of Snape's vow. 

What neither he nor Snape knows is that Draco has indeed discovered a
way to sneak Death Eaters into Hogwarts, and therein lies the flaw in
Dumbledore's plan.

I want to suggest a possibility without actually arguing for it. I
think that Snape found his conversation with Draco a dead end. Draco
was no longer respectful toward him, no longer cared about his
education, considered Snape's own subject, Defense against the Dark
Arts, a joke. (Perhaps he would have been happier at Durmstrang, but
his new mission made that impossible.) Snape discovers that Draco is
learning Occlumency, but it's a very clumsy, easily detected sort of
blocking, one that would be extremely dangerous to use with Voldemort.
It's quite likely that Snape, skilled Legilimens that we now know he
is, could have gotten past this clumsy masking of Draco's thoughts,
but there are (IMO) two reasons why he doesn't attempt it. First, he
would alienate Draco even further, perhaps suggesting that Snape's
interest in Draco's mission goes beyond his own glory. But also, and I
think this is the real reason, he is *afraid* to find out exactly what
Draco is doing. (Note Harry's reaction when Snape orders Draco away
from Slughorn's party: "He looked angry and--was it possible?--a
little afraid," quoted from memory.) If Snape finds out exactly what
Draco is up to, he will be bound by the vow to help him do it--or die.
I think that's what Snape is arguing with Dumbledore about in the
forest and what he means when he says he doesn't want to do it any
more. Best not to find out. Best to let him fail. As long as the Death
Eaters don't get into the school, as long as the defenses remain and
Dumbledore has most of his powers, there is no danger. So rather than
watching Draco, Snape grades his DADA essays, unaware that Dumbledore
has placed himself in terrible danger just as Draco has figured out
how to fix the vanishing cabinet. Until the last moment, when he goes
hurtling up the stairs, and maybe even then, he is in denial. He won't
have to die or kill Dumbledore. Dumbledore will save the day. But
Dumbledore is trapped and dying and Draco has failed to kill him. The
vow kicks in at last, and Snape is faced with the two choices that
Sigune has outlined and which I won't repeat.

At any rate, I think it's significant that the much discussed hatred
and revulsion on Snape's face (seen from Harry's point of view) are
almost identical to Harry's own feelings as he forces Dumbledore to
drink the poison: "Hating himself, repulsed by what he was doing,
Harry forced the goblet toward Dumbledore's mouth. . . ." (571). It
may be, and we don't know because the book is not written from Snape's
point of view, that these words exactly describe Snape's feelings as
he raises the wand.

But to return to my original point, it *isn't* clear that DD didn't
know about the Unbreakable Vow. The evidence seems to point in the
other direction. Appearances to the contrary, we don't *know* that
Snape is evil. We don't know whether he planned to kill Dumbledore or
what, if anything, they planned together. If Dumbledore's ill-fated
quest for the Horcrux had not coincided with Draco's success in
repairing the vanishing cabinet, it is quite likely that Snape, even
ESE!Snape, would have healed Dumbledore as he did before. The vow did
not require him to deny Dumbledore help, only to carry out the deed if
Draco failed to do it--and Voldemort wanted Draco to try. But it
didn't happen that way. The jinx on the DADA position and the
Unbreakable Vow combined to make tragedy inevitable. Or that's how I
read the cards.

Carol