Snape's hidden plan? (longish post)

[lealess]

No: HPFGUIDX 136234

Had trouble snipping this and having it make sense, so ...

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "slgazit" <slgazit at s...> 

Salit: I think that Snape is more of an opportunist, but it is 
entirely possible that he was party to the trap with the poison otion 
that needed to be drank to get the fake  Horcrux. Frankly I would not 
put it past him. As one of the 3 top potion makers we know of 
(Slughorn and Voldemort being the other two) he is a suspect by 
efault.

lealess: He may have concocted the potion, but did he really know who 
was going to drink it?

> Is Snape acting as though he is actually trying to take over the 
wizarding world?

Salit: Wishing to be the top guy does not necessarily imply making 
concrete plans for the day after...

lealess: No, but he might have wanted to start sometime, not in the 
sixth book with everyone mistrusting him.

> (1) Where is he building his base? Does he have followers, like 
Dumbledore and Voldemort do?

Salit: He would be foolish to even try to build a base while 
Dumbledore and Voldemort are still around. <snip> I agree that Snape 
is not a military/political leader in the way that Voldemort and 
Dumbledore are. This does not mean he does not wish to be on top. He 
wants people to respect and fear him at this point.

lealess: Where is the evidence of this, besides asking students to 
call him "sir" or "Professor" (which Dumbledore and others echo)?

> (2) Where has Snape tried to exert control over anyone else 
(successfully, not symbolically) before? Has he been shown to use 
Imperius, Obliviate, or other mind-control techniques?

Salit: He has expert knowledge of at least one Unforgivable Curse 
which suggests that he must have used it before (perhaps on those 
poor flies? :-)). He was/is a top level Death Eater. Ergo it is a 
given that he must have performed nasty stuff. Voldemort keeps his 
followers pretty busy from early on (standard technique of pimps and 
drug dealers when introducing new youngsters into the trade is to 
immerse them in it early on so they can't go back).

lealess: Lord of the flies? (Sorry, couldn't resist.) We really don't 
know what Voldemort asks his followers to do. Snape no doubt knows 
some dark stuff. But how much of it have we seen him use, except for 
AK (which may or may not have been) and the curses he invented?

> Has he told Big Lies?

Salit: Must have, or Dumbledore would not have been so deceived...

lealess: Assuming Dumbledore was deceived. Being a spy, he must have 
colored the truth a few times. I still think his skill is obscuring, 
perhaps omitting, the truth, not blatently lying.  Isn't he turned 
away from the Black sisters when he says he thinks the Dark Lord 
means for him to do it? (No book here; I might be wrong.)

> Even the (mild and petulant) detentions given to Harry in HBP try 
to offer suggestion, not mind-altering coercion, about his father and 
godfather.

Salit: If his goals are what I suggested, he must be (and is) very 
protective of Harry and willing to go out of his way to teach him 
more, despite hating him. He has to get him shaped up to defeat 
Voldemort while leaving enough vulnerabilities that he can exploit 
later, knowing Harry so well.

lealess:  I can buy this, actually, that Snape insures Harry's safety 
thinking he will be the one to defeat Voldemort.  Whether this is for 
a selfish or selfless motive is still unclear, as is whether Harry is 
the one who will defeat Voldemort.

> And if he wanted to get the truth from Draco, couldn't he have 
given him Veratiserum?

Salit: Rowling had an explanation on why they don't often work. Check 
her website.

lealess: Still worth a try, though, wouldn't you say?

> (3) Who fears Snape? If Bellatrix and the group in the Astronomy 
Tower are any indication, the Death Eaters respect him, but might not 
follow him out of fear. Even Wormtail listens in at doors in Snape's 
own home.

Salit: Again, what he wants and what he gets are two different 
things. That he wants to be feared and is not will only make him more 
dangerous. I also believe that killing Dumbledore will give him that 
status among the DE's and the general population.

lealess: I think the opposite; killing Dumbledore puts him in more 
danger from all sides.

> (4) Who loves Snape? enough to follow him.

Salit: Voldemort does not seem to have any problem getting followers 
and somehow I can't imagine any of them actually love him!

lealess: No disagreement (except for Bellatrix).  Voldemort uses 
fear.  I was referring to Dumbledore, who people follow out of love, 
but I didn't make that clear.

> (5) If there's a void created by a subsequent death of Voldemort, 
would Snape be able to step into it? Who would welcome him?

Salit: Again, you are applying logical thinking from the outside. The 
question is not whether he can step into it but whether he wants to 
or thinks he can.

lealess: Sure, if you want to throw logic out the window, why stop 
there: why not toss out character development and motivation?  
Anything is possible.  Snape really wants to become the headmaster of 
Hogwarts; he's obviously been working diligently in Dumbledore's 
shadow for eyars.  I think there's as much canon support for that as 
for him being the new Dark Lord.  Just because he's a seemingly loyal 
professor doesn't mean he wants to be headmaster (or even a professor 
at all).  Just because he is a powerful wizard, does not mean he 
wants to rule the world.  Unless you believe plausibility doesn't 
matter and anything is possible... I wonder if I've just stumbled 
across the key to HP.

> What position does he hail from? He is not Minister of Magic, or 
anything seemingly above the fray.

Salit: Neither are Volemort or Dumbledore... Anyway, he wants to lead 
the bad guys, not the good guys. Somehow I don't think that being 
Minister of Magic is such a recommendation with them.

lealess: With the Big Bad gone, I doubt the bad guys will want to be 
led by anyone.  I count Snape at the top of that list, but just 
because he does not want to be under someone's thumb does not mean he 
will turn around and put others under his thumb.  Where have we 
really seen that kind of ambition in him in the books?

> He's killed the beloved Dumbledore. Voldemort will be dispatched in 
some manner in due course. Will the followers of the Big Two roll out 
the welcome mat for him then?

Salit:  He can't get both sides to follow him, of course. He's casted 
his lot with the DE's. Where do you think killing Dumbledore and 
disarming Harry can put him in their eyes, when Voldemort himself 
failed to do either one. Snape had better be careful that Voldemort 
does not eliminate him as a threat next!

lealess: Yes, I agree. Countermanding Voldemort's orders might not 
have been the best idea.

> (6) <snip> Does he seem to be anticipating the day he faces Potter? 
He's been pretty easy on him so far, not as psychologically 
intimidating as I would be if I wanted to throw an opponent off guard 
for a future fight.

Salit: And he knows Harry better than any one else, having explored 
his mind thoroughly during the Occlumency lessons, curtesy of 
Dumbledore's trust... He thinks he can defeat him as he knows his 
weaknesses and how to goad him (witness their duel at the end of HBP 
where Harry was traunced).

lealess: Time will tell how well he knows Harry, really, if his 
prejudice against James Potter is dispelled.  As for the duel, he 
gave Harry the tools to defeat him the next time they meet.  
Selfless, sly, or stupid?  (Also, Snape was the one being goaded, I 
think.)

> all evidence points to Snape being someone who ultimately lets 
others determine the course of their own lives, hoping they will 
leave him alone. I do not see him as a ruler, even with the Half-
Blood Prince moniker.

Salit: I don't see him as a leader but any tyrant can become a ruler 
if he can gather enough strength under him. Right now he is in a very 
good position. The former top players are pretty much out - Malfoy 
Sr. messed up terribly and Bellatrix is a mental basket case.

lealess: Why does there have to be a new leader?  Is Harry destined 
to be a leader ala Dumbledore, if he survives?  Maybe everyone will 
go home, grateful that the ordeal is finally over.  I guess that's 
unthinkable in this universe of good and evil, however.

I am not really tied to any one theory, by the way.  Given the 
evidence of character development to-date, it is hard to picture 
Snape as a would-be tyrant.  It is easier to picture him as a 
reclusive loner, who might want to go back to that kind of life.  But 
I didn't expect his action in the sixth book (who did?).  So, 
anything's possible.

lealess