Snape and Neri's old theory. WAS: Re: Missing Horcrux = Ravenclaw's

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 137349

> Pippin:
> Neri and I had some lovely discussions about that theory, and
> I couldn't shake his belief that the Order's method of 
> communication must be instantaneous.
> 
> But I can now.
> 
> It's now canon that the Patronus is the Order's method
> of communication. Snape had to send a patronus all the way
> to London, and wait for the answer, before he could determine
> that Sirius had never left GP. 
> 
> They don't travel at the speed of light.
> 
> We know this because Tonks and Harry have a very long
> walk from Hogsmeade to the gates of the castle, and when
> they get there, they see Snape just leaving the doors. 
> 
> In OOP, Snape had to wait for the answer from HQ, and 
> meanwhile as far as he knew, Harry was out in the forest 
> somewhere, not trying to get to Sirius.  Then, when Harry 
> didn't come back, he guessed where Harry must have
> gone, and sent  another message, which had to travel
> just as far. 
> 
> Maybe Snape should have realized sooner that Harry
> would try to get to Sirius, but apparently none of the other
> Order members did either. Hindsight is always 20/20.
> 


Neri:
The fact that the Order's method of communication isn't instantaneous
doesn't make things better for Snape. If at all, it makes them worse.
In Umbridge's office Snape realizes (according to DD) that Harry had
just had a vision of Voldy holding Sirius in the DoM. Snape now has to
send his patronus to HQ with a query regarding Sirius' whereabouts,
and until this patronus is back with the answer (we don't know for how
much time) he must assume this is a full emergency situation,
especially in light of what happened to Arthur several months before,
and he has to act accordingly. Snape doesn't need a 20/20 hindsight to
realize that letting Harry wonder with Umbridge into the Forbidden
Forest in a time like this would be extremely irresponsible. I remind
you that at this point Harry had already survived an assassination
attempt by Ministry dementors, and was guarded by the Order throughout
the year.

In addition, before HBP I assumed Snape had to go to his office (or to
another place) in order to use a two-way mirror or a Phineas Nigellus
portrait or something like that. Now it turns out that all he had to
do was to step out of Umbridge's office, wave his wand and send a
patronus, and then wait behind a corner to see what Umbridge would do.
He could follow Umbridge, Harry and Hermione from a safe distance to
see where would they go. So this is the end of all the nice stories
about Snape having to revive the Inquisitorial Squad members in order
to find out where Umbridge took Harry.

Moreover, once Snape knows that Umbridge is in the Forest and her
office is wide open, I see no reason why he can't use her fireplace to
communicate with 12GP instantaneously, as soon as he can get some
passing students to ferry the IS members out to the hospital wing. The
time it takes a patronus to reach London thus seems rather irrelevant
to this discussion.

Neri