Snape, Trelawney, and Who's on First?? (WAS:Do the math)

[rbookworm46]

No: HPFGUIDX 137836

houyhnhnm:

At the same time (fall '95) that Snape has been teaching 14 years,
Trelawney says she has been there 16 years. 1995 - 16 = 1979. If she
is being accurate, then the prophecy was made as much as a year 
before Harry was born. One the other hand, the label on the sphere 
when the DAs see it (June, 1996) gives a date "of some sixteen 
years" earlier (1980). Maybe Trelawney had had a little too much 
sherry. But either way, the prophecy was made somewhere between a 
few months and a year before Harry was born.


Bookworm:
Trelawney's exact words are "*Nearly* sixteen years." (OoP, Ch15).  
Snape very clearly and succinctly says, "Fourteen years."  Now, I 
cannot see Snape exagerating the number of years, but can easily see 
Trelawney trying to pad her resume for Umbridge.  

Snape's answer was given just after the Hogs Head meeting, which was 
the first weekend in October, so Snape started teaching at Hogwarts 
before early October 1981.  Since most teachers start at the
beginning of the school year, I would suggest Snape did, too - he 
probably started September 1st, 1981.

This last agrees with Dumbledore's statement that Snape "*rejoined* 
our side before Lord Voldeort's downfall and turned spy for us, at 
great personal reisk.  He is *now* no more a Death Eater than I am." 
(GoF, Ch30)  

Now for Trelawney: at the end of OoP, Dumbledore told Harry about 
hearing the prophecy "On a cold, wet night sixteen years ago..."
(OoP, Ch37)  I think anyone who is familiar with Scottish weather 
will agree that statement could apply to almost anytime from 
September to May.  This was made in June of '1996'; my personal 
image when reading this passage was that it was early spring, most 
likely sometime in March or April 1980.  By the time Umbridge asked 
Trelawney, Sybill would have been there fifteen and a half years - 
easily stretched to 16 years.

So the period between the prophecy and Snape's arrival at Hogwarts 
coul be as little as 18 months.  For what it's worth... ;-)


What *really* interests me is Dumbledore's statement in the 
Pensieve: Snape *rejoined* the good guys.  This implies he had been 
on Dumbledore's side, went to Voldemort, then came back.  In a very
early interview, JKR said that when she wants to present 
information, Dumbledore and Hermione are the most likely characters 
to use.  So if A=B, and "B" (Dumbledore is not a DE) is true, 
then "A" (Snape is not a DE) must also be true.  If Snape had been 
on Dumbledore's side and left, then the question isn't what made him 
turn against Voldemort, but what caused him to switch sides To 
Voldemort in the first place.

Ravenclaw Bookworm
[Of course, the opposite must also be true - if Snape is a DE, then 
Dumbledore is too.  But I realllly don't want to tackle that 
thought! <beg>]