what was Dumbledore's plan, really?

[Mari]

No: HPFGUIDX 137929

I've been thinking about what we know of Dumbledore's plans as 
a whole over GoF, OotP and HBP.

1) At the end of GoF, Dumbledore *already* has a plan in place, 
which he very quickly puts into action. It seems he has been 
contemplating and planning for the possibility of Voldemort's 
rebirth for quite some time. 

2) We realise in OotP that this plan *does not* involve directly 
attacking Voldemort at this stage. Furthermore, Harry is 
incredibly frustrated because it seems on the surface that any 
plans Dumbledore and the Order may have had cannot be put 
into action or have failed, quite spectacularly in some cases:
     
(a) The Ministry of Magic has successfully discredited both Harry 
and Dumbledore; Harry and Dumbledore cannot convince the 
majority of the population of the need to prepare for battle.

 (b) Dolores Umbridge, also under the auspices of the MoM, is 
doing all she can to prevent the students of Hogwarts from 
preparing for any such battle. 

(c) Dumbledore is  demoted, and Umbridge is put into his place.

(d) Harry does not learn occlumency, and as a result is lured to 
the Department of Mysteries, just as Voldemort wants.

(e) Sirius dies.

Look like failure? Look again. Think about what has been 
achieved by the end of OotP:

1) The DA is formed; the students mobilise independently to 
defend themselves (would they have done so if Umbridge wasn't 
there? I doubt it).
2) Umbridge is removed from the school. 
3) Dumbledore and Harry are back in favour.
4) Voldemort does *not* get the prophecy.
5) We find out at the beginning of HBP that Cornelius Fudge is 
no longer Minister for Magic, *exactly* as Dumbledore wanted. 

Now, onto HBP; again, on the surface, failure:

1) The Order doesn't seem to be doing anything much at all.
2) The Horcruxes are not found and destroyed
3) Voldemort succeeds in his plan to kill Dumbledore and 
Hogwarts is going to be closed.
4) Harry is left alone, and we don't know if he can destroy the rest 
of the Horcruxes himself.
5) Malfoy is involved with death eaters.

BUT, when we look again:

1) Dumbledore has succeeded in passing onto Harry the 
needed information about how to destroy Voldemort for good, i.e 
the secret of the Horcruxes.

2) Voldemort does *not* know that Harry is aware of his secret. 
This is crucial if Harry is to have the chance to destroy him.

3) Malfoy has *not* committed  a murder, which I think is the final 
step to becoming a fully fledged death eater; this is probably why 
Voldemort wanted Malfoy to do the deed.

Maybe I'm stretching things here, but I keep having the niggling 
feeling, when I put all this together, that an appearance of failure 
is a part of Dumbledore's plans.

There is a parallel theme to the Christian story here too; after all, 
in worldly terms, Jesus was a spectacular failure as well. I'm not 
suggesting that Dumbledore or Harry are meant to be Christ 
figures, just that the resonances are rather suggestive. Could 
JKR be leading us towards a similar conclusion, that what looks 
like failure may well be the very opposite when we have all the 
information? This ties in rather well to the idea of last judgement 
love, and the theme which is evident throughout the series that 
the truth is not always what appears on the surface.

Well, enough babbling from me for now ;-) 

Mari.