Slughorn and Dumbledore: possible motive

[hermionegallo]

No: HPFGUIDX 138190

Holy Cow -- someone else!  I'd nearly given up, I thought I was 
alone.  Thank you, thank you, Auria!


> > hg:
> > The idea that Dumbledore's death 
> > was faked hasn't been warmly received on any board, so I've 
been "in the closet" on this one.  But I've been collecting evidence 
and re-reading carefully; I've got a lot of indicators that it 
happened, but without being able to secure a motive, I've been 
reluctant to post.

Auria:
> 
 You said 
> you can't secure a motive.  Well let me try here.  Dumbledore knows 
> that LV can link into Harry's thoughts just as Harry could link to 
LV's before LV started operating occlumency against Harry.  So 
logically Dumbledore would not want Harry to know of any plot to 
outsmart LV and defeat him in case LV can practise legilimens on 
Harry and find out.  

hg:
Absolutely.  Harry would have to be utterly convinced of the death, 
so Voldemort would be utterly convinced, and what better way than to 
witness it?  (As you say, Voldemort might decide to take a visit to 
Harry's brain to make sure!)  But doesn't this sound horrible?  How 
could Dumbledore deceive Harry so (or Hagrid, or anyone else for that 
matter)?  The answer is this: making the right choice or the easy 
choice.  Dumbledore made the mistake (as he admits in OOP) of loving 
Harry more than all the people of the world, pretty much; loving 
Harry more than the nameless, faceless people who would suffer at 
Voldemort's hands.  He's NOT making that mistake anymore.  Yes he 
loves Harry, but if it came down to deceiving Harry or sacrificing 
thousands of people, he'd choose to deceive Harry.

[What's also nice about this scene is it ends up being a win-win for 
Dumbledore.  Either Snape does "kill" him (I don't believe Snape was 
in on any scheme Dumbledore may have had) and he can fake his death 
and go underground, or he DOESN'T, and he's got an opportunity to 
show Harry that he can trust Snape.  It's the right choice/easy 
choice situation for Snape, too.  Incidentally, Dumbledore can wholly 
TRUST Snape to BE SNAPE, without wholly trusting him to be good, in 
my opinion.]

So then a big motive for Dumbledore wanting his death to be faked?  
For all the world to be convinced of his death, so Hogwarts will 
appear vulnerable, to set a trap for Voldemort.  He knows Voldemort 
wants something from Hogwarts, and it's quite a neat little reversal 
of the trap Voldemort set for Harry at the Ministry.  (Yes, he takes 
the safety of his students seriously, naysayers; it's the summer.)  
Absolutely.

Auria:
> For Snape to fight against Bellatrix's suspicion and convince her 
that he really is a DE, then what better way but to agree to the 
unbreakable vow.  Snape is a superb occlumens and was looking 
directly into Narcissa's eyes when they made the vow so he could have 
known in advance what she was going to ask him.  

I think the final request for Snape to complete the task if Draco 
> fails maybe was unxpected as he does pause before agreeing to this 
> one.  And perhaps because of Snape's need to complete the vow, that 
he then informed Dumbledore of this act and together with Slughorn 
came up with a plan to fake D's death and use Snape's completion of 
his vow to maintain LV's acceptance of his loyalty. That would tie in 
both objectives, giving Dubledore the bonus of being able to search 
for horcruxes undetected and to help Harry defeat LV.  

hg:
And it would get the Ministry off his tail.

Good point about the eye contact btw Snape and Narcissa.  I was 
thinking that Snape didn't know what he was agreeing to, but you have 
a point -- even if it's not said on the page, he could be using 
legilimency.  The only catch in what you've said -- for me, anyway -- 
is Snape doesn't necessarily have to know Dumbledore's plan.  One 
could read it either way.  If Snape knows, then he's definitely 
committed to Voldemort's downfall; if he doesn't know, then he's been 
flushed out by Dumbledore and Slughorn -- outed to the world as a 
baddy.  (And Dumbledore would probably thank him for his help, 
inadvertent as it was!  Wouldn't that be a scene?  Just like his 
temper tantrum in PoA!)  If he's in on it, then he had better be a 
better Occlumens than Voldemort is a Legilimens, otherwise he's in 
HUGE trouble.  

Auria:
As for the portrait in the headmaster's office, I'm sure that could 
easily be faked too, especially as Dumbledore was sleeping in it when 
it first appeared.

hg: 
The same for the rest of the signs pointing to Dumbledore's death: 
the AK, the fall, the trickle, the body at the base of the tower, the 
covered body Hagrid carries, or the flames and the phoenix.  Save for 
Dumbledore's repeated assertion that "death is but the next great 
adventure" and his lack of fear of dying, there is nothing in the six 
stories we've read to date that to me necessitates Dumbledore's death 
being authentic.  The old guy with the beard dies, the three stages 
of alchemy -- these arguments aren't based in the canon.  And the 
shopping list of signs that point to Dumbledore's death can all 
arguably be fake.

So far, you've pointed out three really rock-solid reasons why 
Dumbledore would make the choice: to preserve Snape's vow, to 
convince Harry; both of these would ensure that Voldemort believed it 
and was lured to Hogwarts (presumably, to look for a Horcrux he'd 
left there?  or for something he'd really want to use to make a 
Horcrux?); and to hunt down Horcruxes unhampered by Ministry tails.

Let me briefly note the indicators that Slughorn could have stood in 
for Dumbledore that night, so as to get this up on the board to you.  
I can hunt down my documented quotes later.

1) The five minutes (for Harry to go get the cloak).
2) Dumbledore's language in the whole cave/tower scene.
3) Swam with the agility of a much younger man.
4) Forgot that Harry was dripping and freezing behind him.
5) Appears to be left-handed, when Dumbledore is right-handed.  
(Slughorn appears to be left-handed, or at least ambidextrous -- try 
envisioning them standing back to back waving their wands in one 
identical motion for proof.)
6) His own goblet keeps emptying.
7) Reacts to potion same as Ron reacted to bezoar.  This is before 
Harry turns to get water from the lake.  (I don't know entirely what 
to make of that, but I do wonder if he swallowed a bezoar after Harry 
turned his back.)
8) Why doesn't he ever Accio?  Three missed opportunities to do so.
9) Hand on his chest on the tower.
10) "Mead I would probably never drink" line: he could have overheard 
Hermione in the infirmary (Pomfrey thinks there are seven visitors 
when Hagrid comes in).  The bedside cabinet is on my short-list of 
eavesdropper suspects.
11) Slughorn re-collected the dusty dragon's blood for use later -- 
possibly the trickle?
12) Slughorn is absent from the night's events, until he appears in 
the office, looking worse off than anyone, and "EJACULATES" his line 
about Snape.
13) Slughorn wants to get the students out of there immediately, 
seems concerned about taking the time for a funeral.  (For the 
students' protection, or for the work that will be involved in faking 
a funeral.)
14) Big one to me: Dumbledore's eyes "turned green in the reflection 
of the basin;" and Slughorn's "pale gooseberry eyes had found 
Dumbledore's injured hand."  Gooseberry is green.
15) Another biggie: Dumbledore produces, with his left hand, a 
potions knife with which to cut his arm.
16) Dumbledore doesn't toast, but he does in the cave.

Auria, if you (or anyone else) has continued interest in this, I will 
post my more organized collection of these noted inconsistencies with 
quotes and page numbers.  However, this theory is my BABY.  Any 
responders PLEASE take that to heart and save the flames for the 
backyard grill.  

REALLY looking forward to your reply, Auria!  And maybe someone else 
will have something to add?...

hg.