Who killed Dumbledore? WAS: Re: Karmic justice in Potterverse again.

[lupinlore]

No: HPFGUIDX 145039

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at q...> 
wrote:
<SNIP>
> 
> Pippin:
> 
> Considering the evidence, I'd say poisoning was a reasonable 
> alternative, not just a possible one. Maybe not as likely as 
> AK. But likelihood  is not the standard of proof. 


ROFL!  Poisoning a "reasonable" explanation?  I don't see how.  
Given that reasonable standards are defined by "man-on-the-street," 
anyway.  I don't think you would be able to find many men (or women) 
on the street who would find poisoning a "reasonable" explanation 
for Dumbledore's death.

Actually, likelihood does figure strongly into standards of proof, 
as likelihood is largely what standards of "reasonableness" are 
based on.  If you see someone hit with an AK and die, what is the 
reasonable explanation of his death?  The AK.  If you see someone 
hit with an AK and die, and are then told that said person had 
recently ingested a liquid of unknown composition with evident 
deleterious effects of unknown severity and duration, what is the 
reasonable explanation of his death?  The AK.  Theorizing that the 
person may have been actually already dead from the potion, etc., is 
imagining a scenario that is possible but highly unlikely and 
therefore not a reasonable explanation (i.e. not enough to establish 
a reasonable doubt as to the cause of death, given the evidence).


> You've already pronounced yourself dissatisfied with several 
aspects
> of JKR's writing. No harm in that. But as she's proved herself 
capable
> of doing so, there's no reason to suppose she won't disappoint you
> again. Sorry.
> 

Yes, I do have to admit that should most commonly discussed DDM!
Snape scenarios come to pass I would probably expire of CRUPS 
(Contrived, Ridiculous, Unbelievable Plot Syndrome).  The proximate 
cause of death is asphyxiation due to uncontrollable derisive 
laughter.  If it turns out that DD and Snape had a "plan" for such 
a "contingency" and that was what they were arguing about, I would 
say I'll probably die laughing within thirty minutes.  If we find DD 
was already swiftly and incurably expiring from the potion in the 
cave, thus making Harry his "murderer," I expect to choke on my own 
guffaws within fifteen minutes.  If it turns out that DD "begged" 
Snape to kill him through some improvised (but unheard and unseen) 
communication on the spur of the moment on the tower, I'll be dead 
within five minutes, as the level of laughter and derision that 
would bring on would doubtless induce convulsions and a cerebral 
hemorrhage.  But then, everybody has to die sometime, and dieing is 
easy compared to the making of comedy -- even unintentional comedy.


Lupinlore