Dumbledore the General

[Debbie]

No: HPFGUIDX 124239


Phoenixgod2000 wrote:

> Dumbledore has helped a lot on a personal level 
> because of his level of magical strength. I am speaking on a large 
> strategic level. The chessboard if you will. And Dumbledore is 
losing 
> that battle because because he is playing a reactive war. He's 
> letting Voldemort make the first move. Being on a defensive 
footing 
> is a bad way to fight because it means you can never apply 
pressure 
> to your opponent.
 
He's not being reactive.  We know the Order has been actively 
recruiting supporters while Voldemort went after the prophecy.  
Charlie is working internationally.  Bill is working on the 
goblins.  Hagrid went (largely unsuccessfully) to the giants.  
However, he is fighting a defensive war rather than an offensive 
one.  

Phoenixgod2000:
> Secondly Voldemort does fear DD personal ability but Albus has so 
far 
> proven he's a fairly bad strategist. Remember, Voldemort was 
> *winning* the last war.  The Potters were running scared. The 
> longbottoms were running scared.  Dumbledore's organization was 
> compromised by at least one spy.  The entire population was 
terrified 
> to leave their homes.  And that was all underneath the auspices of 
> the Order of the Phoenix beneath DD leadership.  Voldemort came 
> within a scar's breath of total victory.
> 

I see that Pippin's post 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/124178 (before 
phoenixgod2000 posted) succintly states my response to this point:
> Um, are you forgetting that the Ministry was also losing VWI?  
> They didn't seem to be hamstrung by their respect for civil 
> liberties. No indeed, they were hamstrung by their respect for 
> wealthy old bloodlines.

I would say, however, that it was the Ministry that was *primarily* 
fighting and losing VWI, despite the fact that a large part of the 
wizarding populace approved of Crouch Sr.'s tactics, to the point of 
clamoring for him to become Minister of Magic.

We don't know exactly when the Order came into existence.  Was it 
before or after Crouch Sr. started to fight fire with fire?  Lupin's 
statement that the Order is better prepared this time and has a head 
start implies that the Order was not assembled until VWI was in full 
swing.  In fact, I have wondered whether the Marauders were founding 
members.  

In any event, Dumbledore's failure to mount an offensive against 
Voldemort in OOP seems consistent with my view of the Order.  I 
believe that Dumbledore's founding of the Order represents a 
rejection of traditional strategies, such as the ones you suggest.  
Rather than being a *bad* strategist, his approach is 
revolutionary.  Dumbledore's objective is not to beat, or kill, the 
DEs and save the wizarding world from them, though at the DoM the 
Order members do fight to protect Harry & Co.; the goal must be to 
change their thinking *and* the thinking of the average witch or 
wizard, or else there will be endless waves of Grindelwalds and 
Voldemorts to fight against.  And if he is to do that, he can't 
stoop to their level.

Phoenixgod2000:
> I can think of a number of things right off the top of my head 
that a 
> private group working outside the auspices of the ministry could 
do.

[snip suggestions to poison Voldemort, frame the DEs, raid their 
homes, kidnap and interrogate them, and tie up their bank accounts]

The difference between these suggestions (even the use of Fleur -- 
who is not, as far as we know, in the Order -- as a siren) and the 
actions the Order does take is that they make use of deception and 
underhanded tricks to hurt the DEs, either physically or financially 
or by wrongfully taking away their freedom.  I believe the *Good* 
side cannot win this war if they engage the DEs on their own terms; 
they can only win by moral superiority.   Thus, they cannot function 
by entrapping and killing DEs.

Someone is certain to point out Moody to dispove the last sentence, 
though in his case, entrapping DEs in VWI was part of his Ministry 
job.  Sirius says only that "he never killed if he could help it.  
Always brought people in alive where possible.  He was tough, but he 
never descended to the level of the Death Eaters."  We do have one 
example, the death of Rosier, which cost Moody a piece of his nose.  
Crouch Sr. said that Rosier "preferred to fight rather than come 
quietly and was killed in the struggle."  On that basis, at least a 
reasonable case can be made that he killed only in self-defense, in 
the execution of his job responsibilities.  He has enough scars and 
missing parts to support that theory.

And we don't know the circumstances in which the Order members were 
being killed.  Other than the Prewett brothers who, according to 
Moody, "fought like heroes" (which doesn't rule out self-defense) 
the others seem to have been attacked with their families, which 
definitely doesn't sound like they were killed in battle.

I know that there is a large contingent on this list who believe 
Dumbledore *is* deceptive and no better than the DEs.  Yes, he has 
lied on occasion.  He lied to Fudge, taking the blame for the DA to 
protect Harry, his best weapon.  He doesn't always tell Harry the 
whole truth.  However, in PS/SS he told Harry he would withhold 
information that he didn't believe Harry should know.  He said he 
would not lie.  From PS/SS ch. 17:  "'I shall answer your questions 
unless I have a very good reason not to, in which case I beg you'll 
forgive me.  I shall not, of course, lie.'"  Can anyone point to a 
lie of Dumbledore's that was intended to hurt someone?

> 3. The Media. Get out Harry's Story! Don't let the Ministry have 
all 
> the airspace to get out their version of the truth. Own the people 
> and you will have half the battle won. Fight the daily prophet on 
> their own ground. Fight Fudge in the media and get someone 
competent 
> like Madam Bones to run the show.

The Order was doing this, but apparently more quietly.  (They didn't 
have access to the Daily Prophet.)  From OOP ch. 5:  "'But if none 
of you are putting the news out that Voldemort's back --' Harry 
began. 'Who said none of us are putting the news out?' said 
Sirius. 'Why d'you think Dumbledore's in so much trouble?'"  
Admittedly, Dumbledore erred by not using vehicles like the Quibbler 
to get the word out.

Phoenixgod2000:
> 4. Giant animagus dog.  Potential tracker and spy. Trail Lucius to 
DE 
> meetings and maybe learn where Voldemort is holding up at for a 
raid 
> at a later time. Possible trainer for other potential animagi in 
the 
> order.

Actually, I think this is Snape's job -- not to trail Lucius to DE 
meetings but to use his Legilimency skills to find out what was 
going on.  How else did they learn so quickly that Voldemort was 
after the prophecy?  And they do have spies in the Ministry, who do 
spread misinformation, such as rumors that Sirius is in Tibet.

Phoenixgod2000:
> 9. Train Harry. Get him out of his grief by putting him through an 
> exhausting magical boot camp along side his friends and start 
> preparing him for what is going to come.

I am sure that Dumbledore would respond that Harry has been 
preparing himself for what is going to come. ;-)  I also believe 
Dumbledore would respond that Harry must choose to prepare himself.  
He will be a much more effective weapon if he does not feel like 
he's being forced into the war against his will.

Phoenixgod2000:
> 10. Start laying the ground work for all of the above *early*. DD 
> knows that Voldemort is going to be back so he should have been 
> plotting for the past decade and a half. Right now it looks like 
he's 
> been flying by the seat of his pants.

Well, once the battle begins doesn't every general have to resort to 
flying by the seat of his pants?  I don't think Dumbledore believes 
in elaborate plans because it is unlikely they will be carried out 
as planned; instead, he waits for an opportunity and exploits it (as 
he did when he suggested Harry and Hermione use the time-turner to 
rescue Sirius).  History is the result of the decisions of too many 
people for any individual's plan to control, and Dumbledore knows 
it.  From POA ch. 22:  "The consequences of our actions are always 
so complicated, so diverse, that predicting the future is a very 
difficult business indeed."

Debbie
a pacifist with an unexplainable interest in military history