Dumbledore the General (LONG)

[sevenhundredandthirteen]

No: HPFGUIDX 124282


Alla queried:

I am afraid I don't understand. I would love for your 
assumption to be correct - namely that Dumbledore 
indeed wants the war in the openASAP, but I absolutely 
don't see how his way of doing things encourages DE to 
attack.

His defence in the battle of MOM was a necessary 
measure, which they wanted to avoid at all costs.

Do you mind explaining more what Dumbledore does to 
bring the war out in the open, please?


Laurasia replies:


Dumbledore knows that the longer the war remains secret, the more
opportunities Voldemort has for planting spies, putting the Imperius
Curse on people and finding supporters.

In order to terminate this preparation, Dumbledore encourages open
war.

Dumbledore's objective is for Voldemort himself to come out of hiding.
For this he needs a very specific task that requires the exclusive use
of Voldemort's own hand. A task he can delegate to another is no good.
The only option is the prophecy that only Voldemort and Harry can pick
up. 

Dumbledore also needs this to happen in a place where it can be
witnessed by as many people in positions of power as he can.
Dumbledore chooses the battle field- The Ministry of Magic: a place
that is centralised; a place where wizards can apparate to freely; a
place where there are countless fireplaces for flooing; a place that
is of political importance. This means that when an attack does occur
there will be no doubt that Voldemort is making a direct threat on the
Wizarding Government and means to overthrow it. It also means that
many thousands of wizards will be able to arrive and see Voldemort in
the act.

Compare this battle field to Hogwarts: Hogwarts is impossible to
apparate into. So if there was an attack, wizards would have to
apparate to Hogsmeade and find another mode of transport to the
castle, losing precious time. If Voldemort did arrive in Hogwarts,
Fudge would never arrive in time to see him in the act. Hogwarts is
not centralised, and most importantly, it is under the control of a
wizard most people think is senile.

An open attack on Hogwarts would not ensure that open war would break.

Unlike the Philosopher's Stone, the prophecy is not moved to Hogwarts.
It certainly *could* have been. Both Dumbledore and Harry were there,
at the Dept. of Mysteries door, in August.

And Voldemort *may* have planned to attack Hogwarts. Harry Potter does
reside there for 10 months of the year, after all. Dumbledore must
ensure that this does not happen because it would mean another year
before open war breaks. It would mean another year for Voldemort to
find support and infiltrate the Ministry of Magic.

By putting a constant guard on the Department of Mysteries, Dumbledore
is making sure Voldemort's attention is drawn to it.  Dumbledore
*knows* that no one can pick up the Prophecy besides Harry or
Voldemort. Dumbledore *knows* that Voldemort is not stupid enough to
waltz into the MoM if there is any other choice. Dumbledore also knows
that the Ministry of Magic has thorough security measures which limit
the chances Voldemort has for breaking into the Dept. Of Mysteries. 

IMO, Dumbledore knows that he doesn't have to guard the Dept. of
Mysteries. He has portrait spies in the Atrium who could tell him
instantly if Voldemort was on his way down in the lift. Why bother
putting a time-consuming and energy wasting task like round-the-clock
defence on an object (which has debateable use) unless he was trying
to create a diversion?

I don't think the defence on the Dept. of Mysteries was necessary. If
keeping that prophecy away from Voldemort's ears was *absolutely*
necessary, then Dumbledore should have cast a Stupefy in its general
vicinity. But he doesn't. Dumbledore keeps that prophecy alive, even
though he has perfect recollection of the damn thing. Why? Why risk
another copy? IMO, it is obvious that Dumbledore is setting up a
diversion. And by putting a lot of effort into guarding it, it only
reaffirms, in Voldemort's eyes, that this is something he *needs*.

Dumbledore arranges for Harry to learn Occlumency. He wants Harry to
block out that corridor. Dumbledore wants Voldemort forced into going
into the MoM himself, in *person.*

Moreover, the last thing Dumbledore wants to do is for Voldemort to
give up his pursuit of the Dept. of Mysteries. This could happen if
Dumbledore went public with his knowledge. It could also occur if
Voldemort realised he was being set up, so Dumbledore must ensure
there is *some* resistance.

I think this makes it clear that Dumbledore was setting up a situation
that would lead to Voldemort appearing in person in front of several
thousand witnesses who have political power. It would have been *very*
easy to destroy or move the prophecy. Yet Dumbledore doesn't. He
allows it to exist and he puts up an apparent defence of it because he
is trying to force Voldemort into revealing himself. 

IMO, Dumbledore is trying to bring the war out into the open. And he
succeeds.

~<(Laurasia)>~

Who didn't realise how PuppetMaster!Dumbledore this was going to turn
out... It's almost as if he's done this all before... ;-)