Dumbledore the General

[horridporrid03]

No: HPFGUIDX 124316


>>Nora:
>Voldemort has lost some significant advantages, and he still doesn't 
know the Prophecy, but it's pretty strongly hinted at that the DEs 
will not be out for long, and it seems to me to point somewhere 
different: the style of the war has changed, and now there is nothing 
to RESTRAIN Voldemort and cronies from being more violent and bloody.<

Betsy:
But this change has occured, more or less, on Dumbledore's time 
table.  Not perfectly, mind you.  I think Dumbledore would have 
honestly preferred to wait until Harry was a ripe old fifty-ish.  But 
Voldemort regained a body earlier than Dumbledore had hoped and so 
what he's gained instead is Voldemort in open warfare without the 
strength of numbers on his side.  At least, he doesn't have as many 
witches and wizards as before, and I think Dumbledore may prevent 
some of his former allies from joining with Voldemort again.  That's 
why Voldemort was so keen on keeping his return a secret.  He needed 
time to rebuild his base.  But I don't think that's happened.  At 
least, not as much as Voldemort would have hoped.

We'll have to wait until the next two books to see if my theory is 
correct.  But I really do think that some of the so-called dark 
creatures may well come down on the Order's side.

>>Nora:
>The delaying tactics of keeping Voldemort down in part so that Harry 
can develop are now no longer effective.  Voldemort no longer has a 
reason to kill indirectly rather than directly and discriminately 
rather than indiscriminately.<

Betsy:
Again, Voldemort regained his body sooner than Dumbledore would have 
hoped.  But Harry is *much* more prepared to face him now then back 
in his first year.  And Harry has developed some strong allies of his 
own.  I have a feeling that the DA will have a part to play in the 
next two books. (Maybe even the House Elves?)  Dumbledore is not a 
puppetmaster.  So the unexpected does happen.  However, I do think 
Dumbledore reacts well to the unforseen, and I do think he's been 
planing for Voldemort's return for the past fifteen years.

My tune and timetable remark was a bit of hyperbole, I'll admit. :)  
But Dumbledore has not been merely reacting.  Voldemort has had to do 
some scambling on his part as well.  

>>Nora:
>And Dumbledore's side has suffered only one major casualty, but one 
of the worst ones possible for when you're pretty, ummm, dependent 
upon one person.
>Nora notes that Dumbledore's weakness is an underappreciation for 
the fragility and vulnerability of persons who are not himself, in 
both mental health and dealing with the difficult<

Betsy:
In a completely cold-blooded way of looking at things, Sirius's death 
may actually be a good thing.  Sirius was coming apart in OotP and he 
wasn't being the best influence on Harry.  His death takes him out of 
the way and makes for a nice rallying cry to help motivate Harry in 
taking down Voldemort.  It's even more personal now.

However, I'm in no way suggesting that Dumbledore was secretly hoping 
for this outcome.  And I think he fully recognizes the pain Harry is 
going through.  I actually disagree that Harry's grief is swept under 
the carpet, both in OotP and in GoF.  I think Dumbledore does a good 
job of giving Harry a place and time to work through his shock and 
pain.  (The presence of Fawkes in GoF was probably a big help, I 
think.)  And he forces Harry to face his pain rather than push it 
down as Harry wanted to do at the end of OotP.  I think this was a 
good thing.

I also think that Harry's emotional well-being is a priority with 
Dumbledore.  I just think he handles it differently than others on 
this list would want him to.  But it does seem to work for Harry, and 
I doubt we'll see an emotional basket-case in the next book.

Betsy