Simple!Snape? (was: Draco, Snape and Others: Castles in the air?)

[lupinlore]

No: HPFGUIDX 124922


<SNIP>
> 
> 
> Lupinlore:
> I don't think he has done this, either, Susan.  I tend to think that
> Snape DOESN'T know all the prophecy, or maybe anything except that
> their IS a prophecy.  
> 
> <snip of the rest of the post>
> 
> Alla:
> 
> Lupinlore, I was ready to embrace your Simple!Snape wholeheartedly, 
> till Susan's question stopped me. :o)
> 
> It is quite reasonable to believe  that Snape does NOT know about  
> the prophecy, but I happen to think that Snape is a  pretty good 
> candidate for the identity of the eavesdropper. I mean who else do 
> we have? It could not be Peter because then ( as other poster 
> argued) Dumbledore would have made sure that he was not made SK.
> 
> I can think of Mundungus, I suppose, but that is about it. Do you 
> have any other good candidates?
> 

Well, I don't think we have ANY good candidates at the moment, Alla. 
We just don't have any evidence to go on.  Given that, anything would
be pure speculation. 

Simple!Snape (or what I would call realistic!Snape) is an attempt to
apply Occam's razor to the facts we now have.  That is, it's an
attempt to come up with an explanation that requires the fewest
possible major assumptions about facts not in evidence.  The idea that
Snape was the one to overhear the prophecy would be a major assumption
based on no evidence, and thus has to be discarded by the rules of
Occam's razor.

However, we DO know that Snape has made very little effort to teach
Harry as one would reasonably expect given the prophecy.  Therefore, I
would say that, based on the evidence we now have, the only reasonable
conclusion is he DOESN'T know the prophecy.  That may of course be
upset by future revelations, but for now I just think it's the
scenario that best fits the evidence when you apply Occam's razor
(i.e. go with the solution that requires the fewest major assumptions
about facts not currently in evidence).  


Lupinlore